Industrial output at seven-year low

Industrial output in November fell to its lowest level since its beginning in 2002 with capacity utilisation down to nearly 50%, reflecting business operators’ concerns about the impact of the global economic slowdown.[…]

The industrial production index for November was 168.39, down 8.36% from 183.76 a year earlier. The index also declined in October, but by only 0.9%.

The ministry began compiling the index in 2002, from a base of 100. It peaked at 189 points in 2006 at a time when industrialists were still confident about future earnings despite the political tensions that culminated in a military coup in September of that year.

Production capacity utilisation in November this year dropped to 56.21% from 60.8% in October, in contrast to levels approaching 100% in some sectors a few years ago when the economy was making a healthy recovery after the 1997-98 crisis period.

Average output increased by 11.5%, 9.4% and 5.8% respectively in the first three quarters of this year, but a decline is likely in the last quarter. (Bangkok Post)

It’s perfectly in line with the fall of exports in november.

It’s now a fact : the thai economy is following all the others… down.

The vicious circle of an economic slowdown (at best) has now started : lower exports leads to lower production, leads to lower profits, leads to higher unemployment, leads to lower consumption, leads to lower lending… etc.

3 Responses to “Industrial output at seven-year low”

  1. 1 FDL 30 December 2008 at 3:03 am

    Next year 2009 is definitely going to be ugly economically to Thailand. I wonder how many jobs have already been lost since the economic crisis began around mid-2008?

    When Thais start losing their jobs or losing their business will be the bitter reality check for everyone.

    Yellow shirts protesters or Red shirt protesters will pale in comparison to Blue-collar protesters who demand the government provide them with jobs!

  2. 2 tom_bkk 30 December 2008 at 8:54 am


    There is one additional critical factor, you didnt mention – its in the same article at the bottom.

    “The sales difficulties faced by industrial product makers were apparent in the inventories index, which rose 14.9% to 196.04 in November despite lower capacity utilisation.”

    High inventories mean in traditional Operation Research – high captial commitment, mismanagement or simply a supply which is much over the demand … or in other words macro a sharp decline in demand – meaning recession

  3. 3 Halfaboy 31 December 2008 at 5:38 am

    It will definitely go downhill next year (and no only in Thailand). However according to a recent article in the Bangkok post unemployment rate next year could reach 1.13 million people or 3% of the workforce (according to the Fiscal Policy Office of the Finance Ministry).

    This does not seem too bad to me given the size of the ongoing crisis. I think many counties would like to see a similar number. Would this be a reliable figure ?

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Thailand Crisis

Coup, Economic slowdown, Terror In the South... The situation is worsening in Thailand. Bumpy road like often before.

But this time, it's different.

The key to understand the present turmoil is the inevitable... succession of King Bhumibol.

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