Chart, exports : drop confirmed with -12,5 % in december


(Source Bank Of Thailand)

The first total amount of thai exports for december (not FOB) has been published today : 11,61 billions USD, against 13,25 billions in december 2007, therefore it’s a drop of 12,5 %.

The ministry said exports to the United States fell 19.3 percent in December from a year earlier while those to Japan fell 15 percent and to the euro zone dropped 16 percent.
Exports to China, which accounted for 7.4 percent of the total, plunged 40 percent in December. (Guardian)

-40 % ! So much for the “decoupling” theory… 😉

(the details, along with FOB figures, will be published by the Bank Of Thailand on january 31).

It’s a confirmation of the tipping point : in november, total exports were at 11,87 billions USD (-18,6 % compared to november 2007).

To give you a perspective, here is another chart with the same timescale and with the amount in millions USD, per month. The “Peak Exports” was reached in july 2008 (at almost 17 billions USD).


Comment from an analyst (Nomura Securities)

The negative growth in December will make the 2009 target of the Commerce Ministry, which aimed for a rise of 3 percent in exports, challenging. For us, we expect exports to decline 6 percent this year and hope the global economy will start improving gradually in the second half, which should help exports to recover later this year.

Challenging ? Ah ah ah ah. A nice understatement. Impossible is the appropriate word.

Unless of course, you believe that in 2009 people from Mars or Jupiter will be able (and willing) to suddendly replace US, european and asian consummers to buy the thai goods.

Don’t laugh : some people do believe that.

In Japan, it’s even worse. Japan is an important trade partner of Thailand, and an important local investor…

Japan’s exports plunged by a record in December, signaling companies will be forced to shut factory lines and fire more workers, driving the economy deeper into recession.

Exports plummeted 35 percent from a year earlier, the sharpest decline since 1980, the earliest year for which there is comparable data, the Finance Ministry said today in Tokyo. The December drop eclipsed a record 26.7 percent decline set the previous month. Economists predicted a 30.3 percent contraction. (Bloomberg)

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Thailand Crisis

Coup, Economic slowdown, Terror In the South... The situation is worsening in Thailand. Bumpy road like often before.

But this time, it's different.

The key to understand the present turmoil is the inevitable... succession of King Bhumibol.

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