Thailand’s inflation in January fell marginally by 0.4 per cent year-on-year, its first decline in more than nine years, according to Siripol Yodmuangcharoen, Permanent Secretary for Commerce. (TNA)
Bravo Thailand ! Right in the middle of a full blown crisis, the stupid bureaucrats had a great idea : to change the thermometer of inflation…
When they started to talk about it, I didn’t believe them. But it’s done.
For the CPI report of january, they have changed the base year for the calculation of the index… (from 2002 to 2007) and they have changed (this is much worse) the relative weight of each item.
For instance :
BEFORE : Food and beverage = 36 % of the index
AFTER : Food and beverage = 33,01 % of the index
BEFORE : Transportation and communication = 21,98 %
ATFER : Transportation and communication = 26,80 %
The result ? Since oil prices are crashing… and since the transportation item has more weight… the effect on the total CPI is greater… AKA inflation rate is going down… more with the new system, than with the old one.
Double whammy with food : food prices are still high compared to last year… but this group has less weight in the new index, therefore the effect on the CPI is mechanically reduced.
Convenient for the clowns, huh ? !
Hopefully, ThaiCrisis is aware. And is watching.
Here is the new serie, with the old one. A red dot on the lines that have changed… All of them… excepted 2 items…
I mean, if they were serious they should give (at least during a few months) the old calculation along with the new calculation, or an Excel file with all the data, so we could do it ourselves.
But better to blind people.
I can’t use my chart anymore, we can’t make forecast using the readings of the previous months to anticipate the year on year difference in %, we can’t make comparison on a long time scale.