Manufacturing Production Index : unprecedented fall

The crisis is intensifying. It’s time to inaugurate a new chart : Manufacturing Production Index (source Bank of Thailand).

First, the definition :

Manufacturing Production Index (MPI) serves as an indicator for the volume of production as well as the direction of manufacturing sector.

MPI series, currently published by the Bank of Thailand (BOT), is
compiled on a monthly basis. It covers 76 products, accounting for 75.68 percent of total value-added of the manufacturing sector.

Firms included are based on those registered with the Ministry of Industry and those receiving investment promotion privileges from the Board of Investment. Target group includes firms with high production capacity or market share. About 440 firms were selected as sampling units.

In december, the MPI dropped to 157,47 points from 176,77 in november, and 194,78 in october …


(click on the image)

On the second chart, you see the drop in percentage in december, compared to december 2007 : -18,75 % ! In november, the trend was already negative : -7,68 %.

Such drop is unprecedented.

4 Responses to “Manufacturing Production Index : unprecedented fall”

  1. 1 Prokster 2 February 2009 at 9:22 am

    Global auto output will need to contract 25-30% from the last 2 year levels.
    How much if this will come from TH? Too much not to change this segment in TH for ever…or at least a very long time.
    Same goes for electronics.

    Bold moves now… LT ones… or the country will be a relative laggard during the next credit expansion cycle.

  2. 2 ThaiCrisis 2 February 2009 at 9:29 am

    Watch out, the local market (for cars) is very specific. Small therefore it can be disconnected from the crisis.
    And actually in december, it went up ! Yes sir.

    Even during a deep recession, we’ll always have a (hard) core of rich thais who would kill their mother for a new mercedes, a new BMW etc.

  3. 3 FDL 2 February 2009 at 10:33 am

    Exports account for a disproportionate 65% of Thailand’s GDP. That export dependency is Thailand’s huge Achilles heel when global trade is spinning downwards steeply and rapidly due to the financial/economic crisis that do not appear getting worse each day.

    When $25 trillion (Trillion!) of wealth had vanished from the global stock market meltdown and when to this date no one has a clue as to the true depths of bank losses (some estimates put yet unreported bank losses at $1.5 trillion and the major global banks require additional capital infusion by another $2.5 trillion), we can see why the tunnel deepens and the light at the end remains unseen.

    Thailand will be in deep shit next 12 months . . . definitely!

  4. 4 Prokster 4 February 2009 at 6:50 am

    Specific in that it is overwighted twards 1 ton pickups? yes indeed. A segment going to see big cutbacks for at least 2 years.
    As in 1999-2001, even the number of new Mercs are BM’s will tumble.
    In fact 1999-2001 was the only time one could pick up a nice car for close to its actual price. The same will probably not happen this time.

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Thailand Crisis

Coup, Economic slowdown, Terror In the South... The situation is worsening in Thailand. Bumpy road like often before.

But this time, it's different.

The key to understand the present turmoil is the inevitable... succession of King Bhumibol.

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