Chart, exports : historic drop in january… -26,50 %

The value of Thailand’s exports fell in January by the most in 18 years as the deepening global recession curbed demand for Thai and Asian products. Shipments for the month were worth US$10.49 billion, down 26.5% from a year earlier, said Siripol Yodmuangcharoen, the permanent secretary for the Commerce Ministry. (Bangkok Post)

Zero surprise. Everything has been said before, on this blog and on other. Only the clowns working for the government are pretending.

The bottom line is : in one year, the quarter of the value of thai exports has been wiped out. This is serious pain for the economy.

Here is the chart, with a large time scale (since january 1997) so you can evaluate the damages.

expjan2

The commerce ministry will hold a meeting on Feb. 25 to review its 3 percent export-growth target for this year, it said in a faxed invitation to the meeting today.

“We set the target when the global situation was better than this,” Siripol said. “We just hope for a recovery in the second half. We will work hard to limit export contraction.” (Bloomberg)

You bet Siripol is going to review his rozy forecast !

But despite the evidences and the common sense, the clowns continue to pray for a “recovery” during the second half of 2009.

It’s pathetic.

Siripol should explain us who is going to buy more thai goods in the coming months ? Zimbabwe ? Or the consumers living on Jupiter perhaps ? Or what about another solar system ?

Here is my forecast : past performances of exports and copy-paste of january results for the coming months. It allows us to evaluate what could be the percentage of difference year on year, for each month.

With one very simple assumption : there is no sign that people and businesses are going to buy more thai stuff in february, march, april or may compared to this january or last december.

However they could buy… less.

In any case : the party is over.

expprojection

(click on the image)

Those who believe otherwise are living in Lalaland.

A minus 33 % is possible… It’s the base effect. Peak exports was reached in july 2008… Therefore, until july 2009 the year on year comparisons, in percentage, are going to be horrible.

It’s a certainty.

There is nothing Siripol can do about it.

[the Bank Of Thailand will publish end of this month the details of exports for january. I will update the various charts].

2 Responses to “Chart, exports : historic drop in january… -26,50 %”


  1. 1 InPhuket 21 February 2009 at 5:12 pm

    You gotta love Tarisa:
    ”As a matter of fact, [the export declines] are a surprise for the region, as there was the thought that the rise in intra-regional trade could save exports….”

    Maybe she should go into the entertainment business, as she is quite hilarious.
    Quoted from the Bangkok Post:
    http://www.bangkokpost.com/business/economics/11978/tarisa-says-weaker-baht-won-t-help

  2. 2 ThaiCrisis 21 February 2009 at 5:33 pm

    You’re right : she’s a joke.

    I’ve got another quote : “I don’t want [Thais] to forget smiles because there are still many things that can make us smile,” she said.
    http://nationmultimedia.com/worldhotnews/30096180/Exports-take-a-dive-and-may-worsen

    Tasty, huh ? When politicians and bureaucrats start to invoke god or… the smile… then you can run. Fast. For cover.
    😉

    And by the way, regarding the exchange rate issue… she’s lying… The THB is decreasing versus the USD… It’s not by chance…


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Thailand Crisis

Coup, Economic slowdown, Terror In the South... The situation is worsening in Thailand. Bumpy road like often before.

But this time, it's different.

The key to understand the present turmoil is the inevitable... succession of King Bhumibol.


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