Annualized GDP : let’s review the situation in a dozen of countries

Knock, knock… While the clowns are waiting for the Messiah (pick up your choice : “Obama” in the US, “Sarkozy” in France or “Abhisit” in Thailand) along with the Noah’s Ark (decipher : “recovery during the second half of 2009“) the crisis is worsening…

Let’s review some hard data.

gdpannual

What’s that ? Annualized GPD. It’s the difference between Q3 and Q4, times 4.

Let’s take an example :

Japan’s economy shrank 3.3 percent in the fourth quarter [compared to the previous quarter]. Japan’s gross domestic product figure translated into an annualized fall of 12.7 percent, exceeding a consensus market forecast for a 11.7 percent contraction, government data showed. (Reuters)

Another info so you can put things into perspective :

The pace of contraction [in Japan] surpassed an annualized 3.8 percent drop in the United States, which was the biggest fall in nearly 27 years.

Are things clearer now ?

I mean… those figures are ugly. And please, remember that we are talking about… Q4 !

You got already, here and there, data that give a taste of what Q1 will be… World trade, production, housing market, unemployment… it’s a mess. And a global one.

As for Thailand… Rendez-vous monday… The GDP report for Q4 will be published…

2 Responses to “Annualized GDP : let’s review the situation in a dozen of countries”


  1. 1 bhushya 22 May 2009 at 9:25 am

    I do not understand why we have to use annualized GDP. The figure becomes very frightening since the number becomes very big. Isnt it so that annualized GDP figures are misleading? why do people use them?

  2. 2 ThaiCrisis 23 May 2009 at 3:29 am

    We don’t “have to” use annualized GDP. There is no obligation. It’s just a way to calculate, to forecast the future from a trend.
    In Europe, we never use annualized GDP, but always year on year comparison (we compare Q1 2009 with Q1 2008 for instance). In the US, they always use annualized GDP.


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Thailand Crisis

Coup, Economic slowdown, Terror In the South... The situation is worsening in Thailand. Bumpy road like often before.

But this time, it's different.

The key to understand the present turmoil is the inevitable... succession of King Bhumibol.


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