Disaster : GDP shrinks 4,3 % in Q4

What a blow. What a blow for all the useful idiots, the suckers, the brainless, the followers, the members of the “everything is fine” sect.

The National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB) announced that the gross domestic product (GDP) in the fourth quarter last year contracted for the first time in a decade.

According to the economic report, the GDP in the previous quarter fell 4.3 per cent [compared to Q4 2007]. For the whole year of 2008, the GDP expanded 2.6 per cent. As for 2009, the economy may worsen and sink by about one per cent. (Bangkok Post and the article from Bloomberg)

As soon as november 2008, you knew what would happen (read my report on GDP Q3).

But Abhisit, the BOT governor, all the government, the bureaucrats didn’t. Well they pretented of course. Many of them are truly dumb. But others are just pretending. They want us, the masses, to be confident.

They think that the economy is just a question of confidence. Give to the masses some opium, some games, and a little bit of bread (and don’t forget TV shows), and the GDP will grow for ever.

Take a loan to buy a condo and a car, eat your soup, and shut the fuck up.

Well it’s a little bit true. Unfortunately. 😉 But not totally.

And for that matter, they are ready to lie. Over and over again.

You’ll see. I bet : the useful idiots will continue to talk about “a recovery during the second half “, the last fashion fantasy.

Politicians will continue to lie. Abhisit will continue like a parrot to speak about “technical recession” and fast recovery. The BOT governor will continue to say that the crisis is not that bad because it didn’t start in Thailand, the Boiler Room will repeat that the thai property market is well insulated from the crisis etc.

It’s more comforting. And so easier.

UPDATE
I’ve finished the analysis of the report. Click here to read.

[Technical reminder : when we compare GDP year on year, we are talking about real GDP [at constant prices]].

9 Responses to “Disaster : GDP shrinks 4,3 % in Q4”


  1. 1 Pricilla 23 February 2009 at 11:35 am

    Thai Crisis, your blog is shifting from being informative into a “everyone is a fuckwit except me” rant. This makes your blog useless to link to as anyone not reading the earlier stuff would think you somewhat manic. Just a thought.

  2. 2 ThaiCrisis 23 February 2009 at 1:06 pm

    Partially true Pricilla. But there is some stuff I just can’t stand : hypocrisy, ignorance and lies.

    To hear someone like the governor of the Bank of Thailand saying that the drop of exports is a “surprise“… I’m sorry, but my blood boils.

    And I will continue to say so. I continue to write factual articles and charts (wait for my analysis of the GDP report Q4), you can just skip my rants. 😉

  3. 3 prokester 23 February 2009 at 2:41 pm

    That’s a tad harsh … FW’s are the ones like the BOT gov to name but one. This blog seems to me to be solid, and because you are mostly correct in your analysis, the right to call a spade a spade has been earned.
    Keep the abuse up.

  4. 4 jeplang 23 February 2009 at 3:25 pm

    TC,surely the economic whiz kids,pundits,and Nobel Laureates of Thailand are not alone in refusing to acknowledge that the economy is in deep shit?
    Quite some time ago [October 2007 and onwards]I was sending articles on the impending economic crises to a young fellow [degree in International Finance] I know who works for an international bank in HK.At that time he told me he didn’t want to read “any of that commie stuff” .Recently,he was forced to admit that he and his work mates had no idea that a crises was looming.
    Are they all eating magic mushrooms?

  5. 5 Marvo 23 February 2009 at 9:18 pm

    TC, carry on telling it as it is! The Pricillas of this world may have forgotten just how bizarre reality is in the upper echelons of an alternative universe called ThaiBlunderLand. I think it to be almost impossible to comment constructively on the quotes from Thailand’s learn-ed custodians of the economy and democracy.

  6. 6 George P Tucker 24 February 2009 at 11:37 am

    Actually it’s the rants that bring me here! It makes my blood boil when newspapers simply repeat utterly inane comments by those in power as if black might possibly be white simply by their say-so.

  7. 7 fall 24 February 2009 at 3:09 pm

    Haven’t you heard? GDP is so out. It’s GNH now, baby! Gross National Happiness!
    Couple with a healthy dose of Sufficient Economy and we are GOLDEN!

  8. 8 ThaiCrisis 24 February 2009 at 3:46 pm

    You have a point Fall.

    GDP is so old fashioned. 😉

    So old fashioned by the way… that for many people it will disappear… totally….

  9. 9 World Citizen 24 February 2009 at 6:06 pm

    Jeplang:

    Now, the problem we’ve got here, is that you don’t have economists who understand this global breakdown. The reason they don’t understand it, is because they don’t want to understand it! They’re all conditioned to believe in certain ideas, which they’ve been taught, which they’ve practiced; which have been widely circulated by the New York Times and similar kinds of trashbins, and they believe this stuff. They were educated in incompetence in the schools they attended. If they’re professional economists or accountants, they don’t know what they’re doing, by profession. They’re professionally incompetent, as opposed to being unprofessionally incompetent. So that there’s very poor understanding of this problem.


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Thailand Crisis

Coup, Economic slowdown, Terror In the South... The situation is worsening in Thailand. Bumpy road like often before.

But this time, it's different.

The key to understand the present turmoil is the inevitable... succession of King Bhumibol.


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