Bank Of Thailand and forecast : the right hand doesn’t understand the left hand

February 27
Mrs. Tarisa [Bank Of Thailand governor] views the Thai economy in the first quarter this year as being better than its performance in the last quarter of 2008, and states that she believes the economy will not be in recession because state spending and investment had begun to accelerate. (TNA)

February 28
Thailand’s economy in January continued to shrink with all economic indicators showing a continuing contraction, according to the Bank of Thailand (BoT). (TNA)

Talk about credibility…. Credibility is a word unknown to Miss Tarisa and all her followers : the clowns.

I would like to remind you that mid january, the BOT already said :

The gross domestic product (GDP) is very unlikely to shrink in 2009 since the economy in the first quarter began to have signs of recovery after various fiscal measures were taken. (read here).

Who said that ? The Deputy governor… A good pupil… 😉

We have 3 kind of people there :
-the brainless
-the liar
-and brainless + liar

Please, could someone explain them that:

-January has been WORSE than december.
-february has been WORSE than january, if we look at all the indicators IN THE FREAKING WORLD.
-unless Jesus is coming back or Earth is visited by people from Jupiter, march will be AS BAD AS february (or maybe worse).

Exports in january ? Dead. Dead as dead meat. Investments ? Dead. Private consumption ? Down since january (VAT receipts are a proof, read here). Government expenses ? Not dead, but not enough to compensate the disaster in other GDP components. Read my report on GDP Q4.

So bad + very bad + very bad at most = NO FREAKING RECOVERY IN THE FIRST QUARTER

I repeat for Tarisa :

Bad + very bad + very bad at most = NO FREAKING RECOVERY IN THE FIRST QUARTER

For Christ’s sake ! Is she able to understand this ? !

After all, I think she can’t… She said that exports crash in Asia was… “a surprise “. Yes. Oui. Ja. One week ago, read here. You see. She’s hopeless.

I’m so fed up of this circus and those clowns. I’m losing my nerves.

13 Responses to “Bank Of Thailand and forecast : the right hand doesn’t understand the left hand”


  1. 1 David Brown 28 February 2009 at 8:35 am

    you express some cynicism and tend to disparage dear Tarisa…

    does she watch astv?

    perhaps she has Sondhi Lim/Kasits disease?

    have sympathy, some people are just disjoint from reality…

    its a pity though that she has a job that may be significant to the welfare of 68 million people…..

  2. 2 ThaiCrisis 28 February 2009 at 9:18 am

    No David. At the beginning, I was lenient : they are displeased the the harsh reality, they can’t handle it. They need artificial paradise, an escape. It’s a classic (and normal) human behavior.

    But now… I can’t stand it anymore. I’m mad as hell.

    😉

    To say that the economy gives signs of recovery in january and first quarter, it’s not funny anymore, it’s not a form of self psycho protection… IT’S JUST PLAIN LIE.

    They are lying. I’m know Tarisa is a smart woman… But she’s a liar.

    And it shows how desperate they are : when politicians and officials rely only on rosy lies, the orwelian doublespeak, it means that we are in deep trouble.

    It’s their last “dam”, before everything breaks : to repeat ad nauseam that recovery is for tomorrow.

    I wrote it before : their scariest enemy is a LONG, a very long crisis.

    They can handle lies a few month, even a few years (think back in august 2007… the crisis started, but the Bush administration managed to give a Potemkin Village comedy until the US elections), but they will be powerless if the crisis lasts much longer.

    This is the key point, on the political level : we know there is a very violent global crisis. The key point is : its duration.

    Don’t forget David : the process is NOT LINEAR.

    Every day that passes with more people losing their jobs, with more people going in retirement (US, Europe), with more people reducing their consumption because their losing their jobs, with more people seeing the prices of their house going down, with more bailouts, with more debts, with stock markets around the world going down, with business reducing their investments because there is less demand, with more people who rely on social safety nets (Europe), with more stress on State finances (less taxes)… etc… increase the entropy, and digg the hole much deeper.

    It’s a self reinforcing, exponential, process !

    This is why the key is… duration.

    The more we are into the crisis, the more the crisis will be severe.

  3. 3 whoopla 28 February 2009 at 9:41 am

    Maybe we are mired in Thailand by “rose coloured” equity indexes, and the “easing” is performed quantatively.Analogy of a bathhouse on the brink of bankruptsy? There are no “black swans” in Thailand. Same as there are no cows in Mumbai. Pardonnez the poetry.

  4. 4 ThaiCrisis 28 February 2009 at 9:56 am

    I like poetry with black swans… To read the book of Nassim Nicholas Taleb should be compulsory.
    😉

  5. 5 thaichris 28 February 2009 at 1:58 pm

    I see it as a very positive development. Everything will go down. Social unrest will raise around th world. People will migrate in order to find food and water. The developed world will close there borders. The desperate peoples from the suffering countries will push at any price. Polititians will move into there last ressort – WAR. And this will be the last World War as this time there will be extended use of nuclear wepons. Did you watch the movie “The day after”. You should because it will show everybodies destiny. 5 years later the human race will be gone. Cocroaches and ants will rule the world. And the planet will be saved. From the worst dissease – Homo Sapiens.

    I like this scenario – no more clowns.

  6. 6 ni 28 February 2009 at 2:04 pm

    they may are used to comunicate on a different tone!

  7. 7 fall 28 February 2009 at 4:06 pm

    Hmm,… strange.
    Does anyone have trouble accessing blogspot.com from Thailand?

  8. 8 InPhuket 28 February 2009 at 5:02 pm

    It seems that since Thailand, due to it’s backbone of exports is on the effects side of this crises, whereas the US is more on the cause side. With that being said, Thailand was slower going into this, and it is virtually impossible for them to even see the light of day UNTIL the cause US/ Europe gets back to their respective feet. First the US, along with Europe, China and Japan must all individually reach bottom and stop the bleeding THEN complete an extensive damage report, THEN starts to rebuild consumer confidence and THEN begin to increase spending. When, and only when that happens, will Thailand even have the opportunity to recover. I say the opportunity, because with these brainless clowns it takes a whole lot more that just an opportunity to move ahead. In the mean time all these morons at the BOT and elsewhere can do, is take a seat and watch along with the rest of us and see what happens. In the mean time they can all congratulate each other on how they saved face in these times of despair.

  9. 9 ThaiCrisis 28 February 2009 at 6:21 pm

    Indeed. True ADSL Bangkok… It doesn’t work. Ping is okay (although going to an address in Singapore).
    I guess it’s again a DNS problem.
    They put their dirty fingers into their proxy system… they just don’t know how it works.

  10. 10 World Citizen 28 February 2009 at 7:01 pm

    A bigger proportion of non-investment grade companies will go bust in the US and overseas in the coming years than during the Great Depression, according to Moody’s.

    In what will be seen by many as die-cast confirmation that the world economy is plummeting towards an economic and corporate implosion of unprecedented proportions, Moody’s said it anticipated a tidal wave of defaults was approaching.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/4840805/Moodys-predicts-default-rate-will-exceed-peaks-hit-in-Great-Depression.html

    Make your own conclusions

  11. 11 ThaiCrisis 28 February 2009 at 7:02 pm

    I give no credit to Moodys… Those rating agencies were part of the problem… Now, they start to wake up… After the battle and very slowly.
    They are still giving surreal note to zombies banks, zombies companies etc.
    However, I agree on the conclusion of this (global) study.

  12. 12 World Citizen 28 February 2009 at 7:27 pm

    TC: I agree the rating agencies deserve absolutely no credit and continue to be part of the problem. However, the study is sound.

  13. 13 World Citizen 28 February 2009 at 8:18 pm

    TC: I decided to post Moodys comment precisely for the reason that Moodys, like other ratings agencies continue to be well behind the curve with the battle (understatement). However, the many doubters to the consequences of the ongoing global collapse will read, analyze and report on Moody’s article. When they do, they will start to realize that if the ratings agencies are sounding this planets death knell then maybe we really are in the brown & slushy.

    Expect more lies & deception from our so called leaders. They fully intend to take us down with them.


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Thailand Crisis

Coup, Economic slowdown, Terror In the South... The situation is worsening in Thailand. Bumpy road like often before.

But this time, it's different.

The key to understand the present turmoil is the inevitable... succession of King Bhumibol.


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