-50 %. I repeat : -50%.
The value of thai exports (in THB) to Asean countries… has dropped by 50 % in january 2009 compared to The Peak Exports (July 2008 was the maximum total value of thai exports).
In other words, in six months, thai exports to Asean have been DIVIDED BY 2.
It’s astonishing. It’s not crisis. It’s a bubble popping.
Time for us to inaugurate a new chart, that I will follow the coming months : monthly % of change compared to Peak Exports.
The second biggest looser is the group China+Hong Kong+South Korea+Taiwan : -43 %.
The global demand crisis is hammering the trade in Asia. From Asia as a whole of course, but also within Asia.
Now it’s clear : the boom of trade within Asean was… mainly caused by the boom of imports outside Asia (USA, Europe). It was not driven by real internal demand.
Thailand was selling hard disks to Singapore for instance, then those hard disks were resold to China, with something added. Then China was selling computers to the world (it’s a short cut, but you get my idea).
Now the classic chart, per destination.
You can see that the -50 % are absolutely not harmless. Asean is (sorry was) the biggest customer for thai exports.
It changed in january 2009… The total for the group “Other countries” is now a little bit… superior.
(Source Bank Of Thailand, table EC_XT_002)