Chart, exports, per destination : thai exports to Asean have been divided by 2

-50 %. I repeat : -50%.

The value of thai exports (in THB) to Asean countries… has dropped by 50 % in january 2009 compared to The Peak Exports (July 2008 was the maximum total value of thai exports).

In other words, in six months, thai exports to Asean have been DIVIDED BY 2.

It’s astonishing. It’s not crisis. It’s a bubble popping.

Time for us to inaugurate a new chart, that I will follow the coming months : monthly % of change compared to Peak Exports.

exportjan1

The second biggest looser is the group China+Hong Kong+South Korea+Taiwan : -43 %.

The global demand crisis is hammering the trade in Asia. From Asia as a whole of course, but also within Asia.

Now it’s clear : the boom of trade within Asean was… mainly caused by the boom of imports outside Asia (USA, Europe). It was not driven by real internal demand.

Thailand was selling hard disks to Singapore for instance, then those hard disks were resold to China, with something added. Then China was selling computers to the world (it’s a short cut, but you get my idea).

Now the classic chart, per destination.

exportjan2

You can see that the -50 % are absolutely not harmless. Asean is (sorry was) the biggest customer for thai exports.

It changed in january 2009… The total for the group “Other countries” is now a little bit… superior.

(Source Bank Of Thailand, table EC_XT_002)

6 Responses to “Chart, exports, per destination : thai exports to Asean have been divided by 2”


  1. 1 thaichris 2 March 2009 at 2:34 am

    The dramatic drop might be unexpected to the public, but if you look close enough into the business community, you will see that they have been well aware that this is only a bubble.

    How did they cover the additional demand? They let there work forece make ‘over time’ and they hired ‘temporary ressources’. And as the demand dropped, they only drop OT and don’t re-hire the ‘temporary’ workers. And the don’t pay any bonus. The employees just get what they have originally promised. There standard monthly salary.

    The problem for the people is, that they put there standard of living at the level of salary+OT+bonus and are now unable to live with the salary only. Read the article from Bangkok Pundit http://bangkokpundit.blogspot.com/2009/02/moving-back-to-countryside.html which explains the issue very well.

    Who to blame for? People should have listened to the advice from the king regarding ‘sufficient economy’.

  2. 2 BAF 2 March 2009 at 9:14 am

    So much for the wacko Asian “decoupling” theories the smiling ignorant blind daydreaming Thai apologists who rule boards like ThaiWhizz have been babbling about. they have once again been proven wrong by, simply, history… As always. LMAO

  3. 3 ThaiCrisis 2 March 2009 at 9:42 am

    Indeed… Arrogance is the main bias of many people.
    They are not humble confronted to History’s teachings.

    I hate this kind of people : I call them the “This time it’s different” sect.

    -Internet, new economy ? “This time it’s different”
    -bubble in property market ? “This time it’s different”
    -Exports and Asia ? “This time it’s different”

    They always tend to believe that History is just a pile of garbages, with no significance whatsoever.

    They just forget one fundamental point : they are just like the men who were living 300, 200 or 100 years ago. Same brain, same emotions, same flaws, same desires…

    Therefore : History, made by men, repeats itself.

  4. 4 ray 2 March 2009 at 11:46 am

    for politicinas they say it is different. but for the business community( i am a businessmsn myself) we have been expected this slowdown/crash since bear sterns/fannie/freddie/lehman saga began to unfold. exporters have seen slowdown in orders since 1st quarter of 2008 or even late 2007.

    these are very scary times and unless usa and eu dont recover asia is screwed. and this thing is just started to unfold in asia this year. i feel that 2009 will be to asia what 2008 was for usa.

  5. 5 fall 2 March 2009 at 3:18 pm

    What about import?
    Anyone wanna take a bet which asshole will come out and repeat the mantra of “not effect Thailand GDP” first?

  6. 6 ThaiCrisis 2 March 2009 at 3:35 pm

    It’s coming, Fall, it’s coming. i’ve got only one brain and 2 hands. 😉

    But before, you’ll have the update for the chart about credit cards… and spendings… With something interesting….


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Thailand Crisis

Coup, Economic slowdown, Terror In the South... The situation is worsening in Thailand. Bumpy road like often before.

But this time, it's different.

The key to understand the present turmoil is the inevitable... succession of King Bhumibol.


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