The total amount of exports for february was published today : 11,73 billions USD (against 10,49 billions in january).
That’s a drop of 11 % compared to february 2008.
Meanwhile, imports are crashing… drop of 39 % year on year, at 8,15 billions… Ouch. Bad omen for the consumption and the industry (that imports raw materials, parts etc.)
In February exports of electrics fell 30.1 per cent, electrical appliances 33.3 per cent and automobiles by 33.2 per cent, according to the ministry’s latest figures.
The three sectors account for more than 60 per cent of Thailand’s total exports. (DPA)
The long term chart :
So, I can hear you : you see the crisis is over. Exports are higher in february than in january… Hurrah. 😉
Wait a minute.
According to Mr Siripol, the February exports were also boosted by high gold prices which prompted Thai investors to sell the precious metal shipped to Hong Kong and other markets. Gold exports surged 1,148% last month to $1.86 billion from $781 million in January. Exports of jewellery and ornaments as a result rose 402.7% in February, earning $2.15 billion. (Bangkok Post)
Guys, this is a serious… anomaly !
It’s insane… Okay prices were lower one year ago… but such an increase… And by the way it shows that some thais are desesperate… they are ready to sell their gold because they need cash… and someone “out there” is ready to pay for the thai gold…
[to answer a question from a reader : no, the Bank of Thailand is not the culprit. Their gold reserve is still there, see comments section]
Anyway you know what it means. It means that the “better than very bad” number for february is totally artificial... and won’t last.
In march the nightmare will start again, with a drop of 25 % year on year for total exports.
I remind you the schedule : the Bank Of Thailand will publish the details (in USD, in THB, per category of goods, countries etc.) on march 31.
I will update all the charts the following days.
Last point : this article wouldn’t be completed without a… rant, right ? 😉
Look the liquid bullshit some people have into their brain…
Aat Pisanwanich, director of the Centre for International Trade Studies of the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce (UTCC) said he was a bit surprised to see big improvements in February’s exports although the world economy was still mired in the downward spiral.
This guy is… paid. This guy is “educated”. And yet, he’s ready to make a total fool of himself…