Songkran holidays : “room reservation rates decreased by more than 40 %”

The Association of Domestic Travel revealed that the economic crisis has had an effect on hotel bookings for Songkran days this year.

Association of Domestic Travel president Maiyarat Pirayakoset said that 3-month tallies of tourism figures show stagnation as the world’s economy slows down, and that people are spending about 50 per cent less. It has effected the hotel industry, which reports that room reservation rates have decreased by more than 40 per cent.

The president of the Association of Thai Travel Agents Apichart Sankary confirmed what Maiyarat said, adding that room reservations have dropped by more than 40 per cent, compaired with the same period last year. Chinese tourists who leased more than 60 private flights last year, have leased only 30 flights this year. (TOC)

I don’t really trust this kind of feedback. Because those people are the same who ask for help from the government, therefore their interest is to make us cry.

But in any case, they don’t lie about the trend. They can’t lie about the trend. And my friends, the trend is all what matters. This is one of the ideas I’m toying with on this blog since a few months.

The trend is negative. The trend is a freaking negative loop, a non linear process, a self reinforcing process…

The trend makes the politicians look like fools.

Abhisit sees “yields” for his stimulus plan in 2 or 3 months. Trichet sees recovery on Q4. Bernanke too. Obama sees everything in pink. Geithner sees nothing at all… The Big Clowns Circus is pumping like crazy. Coming to your neighbourhood soon.

Anyway. The thais officials were thinking that tourism would bail them out from the exports slump… The foreigners would come to Thailand by A380 loads… Sabai.

But those brainless people forgot something : during a recession, what is the first budget people cut ? … holidays. Of course.

Just plain common sense. Even a high schooler knows this. But no, the clowns don’t.

What happens when a millionaire sees his stock portfolio melting ? When Joe The Plumber loses his job ? When a business owner loses 25 % of his turn over ? Do they continue to come to Thailand and spend the money they don’t have anymore ? A few yes. 😉 But other don’t.

And what is true with the foreign visitors is also true for the local tourists. Obviously.

Therefore, expect no miracle from tourism, as far as GDP growth is concerned.

3 Responses to “Songkran holidays : “room reservation rates decreased by more than 40 %””

  1. 1 DavidB 23 March 2009 at 8:22 am

    We’d all better hope the Health Ministry doen’t get its way on the booze issue.
    No point point in making a bad situation worse…….that’s only logical……oh, I forgot T.I.T…….

  2. 2 InPhuket 23 March 2009 at 8:27 am

    Assuming their calculations are correct, and there is a 40% decline in the reservation rates, the vacancy rates at these hotels & guesthouses, at least here in Phuket will tell an ever more sad story. With the fever pitch of building going on here in Phuket, there must be at least 15% more rooms on the market now as apposed to last year. (This is just an estimated, safe guess, as in Patong it is probably a lot higher.) Now when you take in last years vacancy rates, lets guess about 90%, which is a very high guess) So you you have 100 rooms available, that puts 90 of them occupied during Songkran last year. Now take 40% off for this years reduction in reservation rates from those 90 and we are left with 54 rooms booked this year. Calculate in the 15% growth in available rooms and now you have 54 of the 115 available rooms, a 53% vacancy rate, for Songkran!

  3. 3 Lothar 24 March 2009 at 1:07 am

    Hope that a lot of hotels are build in a style that can be turned into cheap appartments.

    With all the thais who can’t afford there home anymore this will be market.

    You see this in the USA at the moment. A lot of the 22% increase in new started buildings this month are appartment complex for the subprime loosers.

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Thailand Crisis

Coup, Economic slowdown, Terror In the South... The situation is worsening in Thailand. Bumpy road like often before.

But this time, it's different.

The key to understand the present turmoil is the inevitable... succession of King Bhumibol.

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