The mystery of february exports explained : gold and… Switzerland

It was so obvious…

I was the first to say “watch out… something is fishy”… when the first total amount (non-FOB) of exports in february was published on march 19.

Exports, drop of 11 % in february : serious anomaly on gold and jewelry

The world trade is crashing… Thailand (like so many other countries) suffered a decline of 25 % in january (compared to january 2008)… and we should believe that Thailand did better the month after ? Like a miracle ?

When exports from Japan are crashing by almost 50 % (yes 50 %) ? !

It was abnormal.

-total exports january : 10,49 billions
-total exports february : 11,73 billions

There was almost 1 billion USD “fishy”.

Bingo. The group “Pearl, Precious Stone and Jewelry” went from 1,02 billion in january (already high) to a whooping 2,15 billions USD in february !

exportswhy021

Double ! We found our “fishy” billion USD…

And the clowns want us to believe that this is a good sign, the sign of “recovery” ? 😉 Prices of gold were high… the people are short of cash… some foreigners seem ready to pay cash for the thai gold…

And where this gold went ? Guess what….

exportwhy22gif

(a part went to Hong Kong too)

Everything is simple. Only the suckers don’t want to see, don’t want to understand.

Book it : in march, Thailand will, gently and with a smile, go back to the “minus 25 %” group.

And then, march will be followed by even worse numbers (base effect and a crisis that is worsening).

C’est la vie.

(Source Bank Of Thailand)

[News : FRANKFURT, April 1 (Reuters) – ECB says completed gold sales amounting to 35.5 tonnes of gold on March 31 2009…

Interesting to see that… prices were not really affected yesterday… So some people are selling… but other a buying. A lot. ;-)]

[NOTE : in order to avoid confusion : The Bank Of Thailand didn’t sell its gold reserves. Its reserves are detailled here. The gold exports in february were caused by people, selling to goldshops, then to intermediaries, then outside Thailand]

10 Responses to “The mystery of february exports explained : gold and… Switzerland”


  1. 1 tom_bkk 1 April 2009 at 1:16 pm

    Everything is fine 😉

    http://www.bot.or.th/English/EconomicConditions/Thai/Index/Documents/LEI_EN_0309.pdf

    “The Leading Economic Index (LEI) is a complementary tool in assessing the economic trend. It is especially useful in the determination of the turning points or the peaks and troughs of business cycles as well as the short – term (3 – 4 month) trend of the economic growth”

  2. 2 tom_bkk 1 April 2009 at 2:24 pm

    sorry, forgot something:

    further down in the doc of the link you find this …

    “The increase is contributed by the expansion of Real Broad Money, Number of Foreign Tourists and Real Exports from the previous month.”

    Can someone explain this to me?

    – There was no increase in tourists
    – There was no increase in real exports

    … or I understand something wrong?

  3. 3 ThaiCrisis 1 April 2009 at 2:31 pm

    Real exports = not in nominal (at constant prices, they remove inflation). Like Real GDP. Look at the GDP report to understand the deflator issue.
    https://thaicrisis.wordpress.com/2009/02/24/gdp-report-q4-analysis-charts-and-a-very-bad-omen/

    Anyway, this index is really BS. Way too “composite” (and each components… have equal weight into the index !!!).

    One direction : trash can.
    😉

  4. 4 tom_bkk 1 April 2009 at 2:55 pm

    Thanks for explaining … but besides of that, there was no increase of tourists 😉

  5. 5 ThaiCrisis 1 April 2009 at 3:12 pm

    Second trap : “seasonally adjusted”. With this method, you can manage… to have snow during the summer.
    😉

  6. 7 ray 2 April 2009 at 4:22 am

    if thai govt is selling gold to swiss , does it mean teh thai baht is going to be “floated” soon? are we looking at 40 baht to us dollar and20,000 baht / baht of gold?

  7. 8 ThaiCrisis 2 April 2009 at 4:45 am

    Hold on Ray !… Who said that the government was selling the gold ?
    I didn’t.

    The gvt doesn’t have gold. The BOT does. And the gold reserves of the Bank Of Thailand didn’t change in february.

    People are selling their gold.

  8. 9 Bruce 27 April 2009 at 9:29 pm

    hi again
    when will we have the gold export figures for march (as a footnote to this story)?

  9. 10 ThaiCrisis 27 April 2009 at 10:01 pm

    When the BOT will publish the details of exports… AKA april 30.

    It’s probable that we could detect a strange “surge” not to Switzerland this time, but to Africa (people are talking about Madagascar).

    Wait and see.


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Thailand Crisis

Coup, Economic slowdown, Terror In the South... The situation is worsening in Thailand. Bumpy road like often before.

But this time, it's different.

The key to understand the present turmoil is the inevitable... succession of King Bhumibol.


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