It was so obvious…
I was the first to say “watch out… something is fishy”… when the first total amount (non-FOB) of exports in february was published on march 19.
The world trade is crashing… Thailand (like so many other countries) suffered a decline of 25 % in january (compared to january 2008)… and we should believe that Thailand did better the month after ? Like a miracle ?
When exports from Japan are crashing by almost 50 % (yes 50 %) ? !
It was abnormal.
-total exports january : 10,49 billions
-total exports february : 11,73 billions
There was almost 1 billion USD “fishy”.
Bingo. The group “Pearl, Precious Stone and Jewelry” went from 1,02 billion in january (already high) to a whooping 2,15 billions USD in february !
Double ! We found our “fishy” billion USD…
And the clowns want us to believe that this is a good sign, the sign of “recovery” ? 😉 Prices of gold were high… the people are short of cash… some foreigners seem ready to pay cash for the thai gold…
And where this gold went ? Guess what….
(a part went to Hong Kong too)
Everything is simple. Only the suckers don’t want to see, don’t want to understand.
Book it : in march, Thailand will, gently and with a smile, go back to the “minus 25 %” group.
And then, march will be followed by even worse numbers (base effect and a crisis that is worsening).
C’est la vie.
[News : FRANKFURT, April 1 (Reuters) – ECB says completed gold sales amounting to 35.5 tonnes of gold on March 31 2009…
Interesting to see that… prices were not really affected yesterday… So some people are selling… but other a buying. A lot. ;-)]
[NOTE : in order to avoid confusion : The Bank Of Thailand didn’t sell its gold reserves. Its reserves are detailled here. The gold exports in february were caused by people, selling to goldshops, then to intermediaries, then outside Thailand]