There is currently too much to cover on the economic front and with Abhisit too… 😉 Let’s go back to Thaksin (I din’t talk about him since a long time).
Something is happening.
Since a few weeks, the ex-Prime Minister is on the path to war. He doesn’t hide anymore. He’s acting like the leader of the Red Shirts. And he has a mission : take back the power, lead the people and oust the “conservators”.
He left behind the usual thai bullshit and rethorical way of speaking. Thaksin starts to talk for real.
Ousted ex premier Thaksin Shinawatra last night ruled out the possibility of talks with the government, saying that it was too late.
“The time for talks has passed. This matter is not about me; it’s about the country, democracy and the future of our children and grandchildren,” he told his red clad supporters through a video linkup during their gathering outside Government House. […]
He expected to see “a revolution by the people” that is larger than the ones in October 1973 and May 1992. […]
He said the Thai politics now is dominated by aristocrats and the Bangkok middle class, and “not truly for the people”. […] (Nation)
Those are extraordinary words. Nothing less.
Striking with regard to thai customs. And striking when replaced within the current political situation and the coming royal succession.
We are witnessing a brutal power struggle, but (and that’s the trick) it goes beyond the usual “backroom struggles” (when Somchai #1 wants the job of Somchai #2 and pushes him out).
We could draw some parallels with the situation back in the 70s… Like Thaksin does.
But don’t get me wrong : I don’t believe the ex-Prime Minister is a perfect democrat.. His record speaks for itself… Unfortunately.
But one thing is likely : he will be back.
The equation is very simple :
-the royal succession will happen. And probably sooner than later.
-therefore, there is an intense power stuggle between conservators and the “others” (difficult to give a name to such heterogeneous group*)
-meanwhile… the country will suffer a lot from the recession. The outcome is obvious : Abhisit and the Democrat Party are going to be wipped out, because of the discontent of the population. The economic crisis is the ally of Thaksin. The people will think more and more : “life was better before”. Abhisit and the conservators haven’t enough weight to counterbalance such leverage (for that matter, a violent reaction can’t be ruled out).
Thailand faces a conundrum.
A perfect storm.
[* from leftists, republicans, business orientated to liberals, from poor farmers to academics, from taxi drivers to intellectuals etc.]