The Manufacturing Production Index stayed low in february at -19,8 % (year on year), compared to -21,3 % in january. In december, it was -18 %, and in november – 7%.
For the definition of the MPI and its perimeter (Bank Of Thailand) click here.
Now, the chart with the index values.
The red dots are april months. During the Songkran Festival (thai new year), the production always fall (many companies close 5 days).
Now, a novelty : the MPI per category of industry.
The big blow is of course the car industry and electrical appliances, both severly affected by the global demand crisis (exports).
Textile is flat, as well as oil. Food is of course volatile (seasonal). And electronic did a little bit better than in january.
By april 20, when the first figures for exports in march will be published, it will be possible to gauge the MPI…
Last point (sorry to repeat myself). The critical factor of the crisis is… its duration.
On the paper, a business can absorb the sudden shock of a 20 % drop (of its activity) in 1 month… but not for long. We have already january, february… But on a time scale, it’s peanuts.
The real problem is : if the trend remains the same for several months after, then mechanically the damages to the economy will increase (factory closures, defaults, rise of unemployment, fall of consumption and tax collections etc. … a deadly chain).