Exports : preliminary reports show that march was worse than… expected

Thailand’s exports in March were estimated to have slipped further as escalating protests led trading partners and foreign buyers to delay purchases or scrap orders because of a lack of confidence in delivery.

The ongoing anti-government rallies have taken a toll on Thai exports, as certain foreign buyers have already cancelled their trips to Thailand for talks to buy Thai goods, according to Deputy Commerce Minister Alongkorn Ponlaboot.

Earlier, the government forecast that the country’s shipments would start recovering in March after figures contracted by 26.47% and 11.32% year-on-year in February and January respectively.

But Mr Alongkorn said preliminary reports for March showed the performance was worse than expected. (Bangkok Post)

Another blow to gullibility.

It’s astonishing to see the damages done by the “magic thinking”. A real disease.

The clowns believe their own fantasies. We all know that the “better than expected” february results were caused by… gold ! And gold only. It’s documented. I showed it in my article with charts.

I wrote about the february report :

Book it : in march, Thailand will, gently and with a smile, go back to the “minus 25 %” group.

Furthermore, many macro economic indicators in several countries… continued to deteriorate in march… Again, it’s documented.

But no ! Thanks to the magic thinking… march would be better ! Recovery ! March has to be better.

At that point it’s not hope anymore : it’s slimy idiocy. The stakes at the “Confidence Game” are very high. But the payout very… low. ;–)

Lower demand = less credit = lower exports = higher unemployment = lower consumption = lower tax collections etc.

It’s the deadly negative loop. Only fools can pretend to beat it with… “confidence”.

Rendez-vous around april 20 for the publication of the total for march… And then april 30 for the details published by the Bank Of Thailand.

Last point : it’s the first time (and I follow exports data since a long time) that we get an official warning BEFORE the schedule (release of the first report on the 20 of each month).

UPDATE
First data for exports from China in march.

China’s exports fell for a fifth month in March, adding urgency to government efforts to stimulate domestic demand to revive growth in the world’s third- biggest economy.

Overseas sales declined 17.1 percent to $90.29 billion from a year earlier, the state-run Xinhua News Agency reported, citing customs data. Imports dropped 25.1 percent, leaving a trade surplus of $18.56 billion. (Bloomberg)

6 Responses to “Exports : preliminary reports show that march was worse than… expected”


  1. 1 InPhuket 10 April 2009 at 4:49 am

    The Thais have prided themselves on have no enemies and no wars. Now they are in a war they cannot win, with an enemy they know all too well, themselves.
    Now I know why they have the words “Som nam Na”

  2. 2 Bedwyr 10 April 2009 at 6:59 am

    “The Thais have prided themselves on have no enemies and no wars”

    Hmmm. A matching pair, another delusion to go with the one about never being colonised.

    Like bookends.

    Bedwyr

  3. 3 World Insanity 10 April 2009 at 11:28 am

    THAI 09 TOURISM REVENUE, ARRIVALS MAY BE BELOW TARGET ON PROTESTS

    Thailand’s tourism industry is on the verge of a major crisis, with revenue in 2009 likely to fall short of a THB600 billion ($16.9 billion) target as intensified political unrest triggers a slump in visitor arrivals, officials said Friday.

    The number of tourists visiting Thailand this year is likely to fall sharply below a 14.5 million target set by the Tourism Authority of Thailand.

    “Even to achieve 10 million tourists this year will be hard,” said Association of Thai Travel Agents president Apichart Sankary.

    Hotel occupancy rates for the upcoming Thai New Year holiday in Chiang Mai, a popular destination in northern Thailand, have dropped to 60%-65% from almost 100% a year earlier. On the southern island resort of Phuket, hotels have filled only 40% of rooms compared to around 70% a year earlier.

    In the first quarter of this year, the number of tourists fell around 25% compared with a year earlier. Currently, 10 countries including Japan, Australia and New Zealand, have issued travel advisories for Thailand because of the political unrest.

    http://www.nasdaq.com/aspxcontent/NewsStory.aspx?cpath=20090410ACQDJON200904100656DOWJONESDJONLINE000438.htm&selected=9999&selecteddisplaysymbol=9999&StoryTargetFrame=_top&mkt=WORLD&chk=unchecked&lang=&link=&headlinereturnpage=http://www.international.na

  4. 4 bedwyr 10 April 2009 at 12:14 pm

    As ye sow, so shall ye reap.

    Thais have done it to themselves. Arrogance brings its own reward.

    Bedwyr

  5. 5 Mythbuster 10 April 2009 at 1:01 pm

    Bedwyr ,

    It’s not arrogance.
    It’s plain stupidity wrapped up in yellow or red fabric.
    Thailand has been in a historical coma for so long. Looks like the patient is slowly but surely waking up.
    When he comes to his senses, it will e enasty and bloody.

  6. 6 chinesethai 10 April 2009 at 1:27 pm

    I think people all over Asia are getting used to the downturn. It may read and sound scary the way they write the report. But people’s morale are still very good.

    Chiangmai, Democratic Thaksin’s biggest stronghold, would take the biggest hit. Not by the Yellow Shirt….but by his own Red Shirt.

    http://www.manager.co.th/Local/ViewNews.aspx?NewsID=9520000040987

    LATEST NEWS:
    The Red Shirts have retreated from Victory Monument. Songkran is coming and no new money from their Daddy Thaksin. Too bad. 🙂


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Thailand Crisis

Coup, Economic slowdown, Terror In the South... The situation is worsening in Thailand. Bumpy road like often before.

But this time, it's different.

The key to understand the present turmoil is the inevitable... succession of King Bhumibol.


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