Korn opens the umbrella : “GDP decline worse after riots”

The GDP for 2009 would would decline beyond the -2.5% to -3.0% earlier expected be caue of the rioting by the red-shirt group, Finance Minister Korn Chatikavanij said on Tuesday.

Mr Korn said the Ministry of Finance would revise its GDP growth estimate for the year as it was certain that from tourism and exports would fall as a consequence of the unrest. (Bangkok Post)

What a nice umbrella for a man who never believed there was a recession… And for a man who already said that economy could contract by 3 % (on march 24, read here). A man who told us that the 2000 THB “special allowance” decided by Abhisit would save the day. The country. The world. And the thai GDP for sure. 😉

Now, obviously, the protests are convenient… From a political point of view…

We are going down because of the Reds !

We got the same lie with the PAD circus at the airport. The clowns (Abhisit already) told us that exports in december for instance went down because of the airport closure…

With or without protests, the GDP on Q2 is going to be terrible.

The omen is all over the wall (see my report about GDP Q4).

Anyway, see you on may 25 for the publication of the GDP Q1 report

13 Responses to “Korn opens the umbrella : “GDP decline worse after riots””


  1. 1 Chonchanok 15 April 2009 at 3:09 pm

    Do you think the red-shirts care about financial impact of their handy work?

    While the world is trying to get the people out of financial crisis, the Red Shirts’ actions did the exact opposite. They contribute to the delay resolving the financial crisis not just for 63 millions Thai people but billions of people in 16 countries whose leaders supposed to have a meeting in Pattya last week.

    The Red Shirts protesters demanded to dissolve their parliament and hold new election. Complyiing to such demand could to waste billions of bath for the election to replace an already democratic government with another democratic government, while paralyze the government from properly dealing with the financial crisis for another six months. The turmoil they created have undo the progress made in the last four months by the PM Aphisit’s government to help the people, to restore confidence at International level, to boost tourism, , etc. The real economic impact of their actions are unmeasurable. The impact on tourism alone is awful.

    I’m one of the millions people who is happy that PM Aphisit restored peace and order to Thailand. PM Aphisit and his government needs the SUPPORT of the Thai people and International community so they can devote their effort to handle financial recovery.

    Korn is a real financial expert and he has a great track record of outstanding performance. But the obstacles facing him in his role as Finance Minister is enormous. As a Thai citizen, I would prefer to do what I can to help my country than to judge him at this moment.

  2. 2 Leopold 15 April 2009 at 5:18 pm

    But, isn’t it a nice irony?
    The Red Shirts actually gave the govt the most convenient political defense they could ever wish for. Oh boy, if I were one of that red lot, I would be smashing my head to the wall right now. Interestingly, I remember many red shirts used to blame this rather gloomy economic situation on the airport closure as well.

  3. 3 paperback 15 April 2009 at 9:30 pm

    “I’m one of the millions people who is happy that PM Aphisit restored peace and order to Thailand.”

    What exactly are you talking about? Have you spent the last weeks on Mars?

  4. 4 whoopla 15 April 2009 at 10:16 pm

    The Teusday riot by splinter groups was triggered by verifiable reports that many dozens of people got killed on the pre-dawn Teusday morning government rally – Black Teusday – more investigations hopefully will bring light

  5. 5 George P Tuckeer 16 April 2009 at 3:03 am

    Politics 101

    You encounter an unfavorable situation, what do you do?

    A. Carefully look at the underlying causes and address those systematically over a period of time with patience and input from various stakeholders.

    B. Find a way to use it to my immediate advantage.

    Guess which option most politicians would pick.

  6. 6 Mony 16 April 2009 at 7:43 am

    That’s correct. In other words,
    1. Find a scapegoat.
    2. Blame him for all your problems.
    3. Make more promises.
    4. If you made any promises that you cannot keep, go back to step 1.

    To be fair, both the yellow and the red shirts did serious damage to the economy.

    Color Points for damage
    Yellows – 100,000+ bitter, angry tourist.
    Reds – Unknown but I’m sure it does not reach over 100K

  7. 7 Chonchanok 16 April 2009 at 8:28 am

    The real question is “What have you done to help your country out of the economic crisis?”

    Too many times, people think that only government can do something about it. If things did not go as fast as they like or the way they like, it’s easy to blame the current government and keep demanding for new ones.

    The truth is, the problem would be solve faster if every one also do what they can to help. If each one of us help at least one person who was impact by this financial crisis, for example, we can take pride on becoming a part of the solution.

  8. 8 George P Tuckeer 16 April 2009 at 9:33 am

    People in Thailand, especially those on the lower rungs are well versed in taking care of themselves, and by extension, the country. Most would’ve starved if they’d sat back waiting for any government in recent years to do anything for them.

    What’s expected of government (at the minimum) is this:
    Provide stability and security, clear, well enforced rules, transparency, and fairplay. Without such foundations, most individual efforts pale, and recent governments have not provided such foundation.

    Besides, look around and you’ll see there’s plenty of self-help and community support around. Unfortunately, for every person I help, government action/inaction (as the case may be)impoverishes ten others.

  9. 9 antipadshist 16 April 2009 at 1:07 pm

    @Chonchanok

    “Korn is a real financial expert”

    oh, sure , no doubt about it !

    taking into consideration that he was what, a top guy of Thai division of City, or was that Goldsachs ? anyway, the bank which is ruled by fella named … Rokefeller! rings the bell? 😉

    the very fella who is considered one of the MAIN banksters (new term, widely popular nowadays, made from 2 words combined: banker + gangster), those who in the first place has caused this whole mess of current Global economic crisis, and yet keep printing toxic US$ AND now hold Obama a hostage to force him to bailout all their buddies- banksters ! 🙂

    so, as I recall either here on TC’s blog or elsewhere (BO ?) it was mentioned already – that somehow Korn is the richest guy in Abhisit’s “Democrat” government. and another fact – that AFTER he got his minesterial post – his assets increased by some 100mln Baht or more.

    so, well – yeah – he is certainly a “a real financial expert” and I bet it will be reflected by HUGE increase of his assets by the end of his minesterial career – MARK MY WORDS !

    HAHAHAHAHA !

    although how well will do the rest of the country – remains to be seen. but then, it doesn’t really matter for guys like Korn and Abhisit, right ?

  10. 10 chinesethai 16 April 2009 at 2:17 pm

    Mony,

    Let’s get facts straight here.

    Color Points for damage
    Yellows – 100,000+ bitter, angry tourist.

    Yes, tourists were angry after that. But look at this ranking just a couple of months later.

    Norway Still Awards Thailand ‘Best Tourist Destination 2009’
    http://www.travelblog.org/Asia/Thailand/blog-372883.html

    This is the FACT.

    Reds – Unknown but I’m sure it does not reach over 100K
    Could you present me some figures that prove the damage does not reach over 100K?

    So far 100% of Japanese tourists have cancelled trips to Thailand after seeing buses torched, innocent shot dead by Red Shirts on TV. Chinese are following suit.

    Because of whom? Was the government wrong to quell the riot? Who should be responsible for the riot and deaths?

    Both US and EU have condemned the Red Shirt for violence.

    .
    .
    Khun Chonchanok,

    You’re absolutely right! If you keep listening to bad news and cry for help from the government, you’re finished. Bad news is bad news. As long as Thai banks remain in good shape, Thailand not the crisis epicentre, and the Govt not mishandling the economy like pre-1997, things won’t be worse than 1997.

    Keep in mind that the statistics reflect the past and may give a trend BUT they don’t necessarily dictate the future. I listen to the statistics that TC keeps presenting. It is useful. But I don’t get too much excited about it, come rain or come shine.

  11. 11 GNZ 17 April 2009 at 12:51 am

    chinesethai,
    “Norway’s Best Tourist Destination 2009” talk about a particularly lame piece of evidence. You might as well tell me your friend got a pay rise so the economy must be growing.

    And as much as the US and EU might have condemned the Red shirts for violence that is just standard stuff, what I have read in the paper here (overseas) both editorial and letters to the editor is in favour of the red (as a movement) over the government.

  12. 12 GNZ 17 April 2009 at 12:55 am

    Actually I remember that Thailand was actually specifically mentioned, on mainstream TV, in prime time news, as a politically incorect place to go based on the support it might indicate for the government.

  13. 13 chinesethai 17 April 2009 at 5:09 am

    ThaiCrisis:

    ThaiVisa is putting “assassination attempt on Sondhi” as big headline there.


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Thailand Crisis

Coup, Economic slowdown, Terror In the South... The situation is worsening in Thailand. Bumpy road like often before.

But this time, it's different.

The key to understand the present turmoil is the inevitable... succession of King Bhumibol.


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