Exports in march : get ready for the very, very bad news


The Commerce Ministry is under pressure to lower this year’s export target, as the numbers for March are likely to show historically low year-on-year growth due to the plunge in global demand, a senior official said yesterday.

Commerce permanent secretary Siripol Yodmuangcharoen said the March figures could in turn result in first-quarter exports falling by more than 20 per cent from the same period last year.

“Inevitably, this would force the ministry to revise down this year’s export target,” said Siripol.

Last month’s export figures will be revealed today. (Nation)

I’m laughing… Quietly. ๐Ÿ˜‰

It’s a show case : where reason is stronger than lunacy, wishful thinking and disillusion. Yes, I’m not afraid of big words.

Here is what I wrote last month, after the publication of figures for february.

Book it : in march, Thailand will, gently and with a smile, go back to the โ€œminus 25 %โ€ group.

It’s so easy… the clowns are so gullible… they believe in their own fantasies. They tried very hard to hide the disaster in february… by playing with grotesque gold exports figures (to Switzerland, read my article)…

It was impossible to rely on the same trick the month after…

Get ready… I will shoot the chart as soon as the total amount will be published tuesday.

Anyway. I’m confident the clowns will continue to tell us that everything is going to be okay, and that exports are going to rebound.

Ah, well… no… obviously not in april (because we had the revolucion), so let’s say in may. Yeah, may sounds good ! “Exports will pick up in may”. Voila. ๐Ÿ˜‰

Commerce Minister Porntiva Nakasai said yesterday she would seek urgent discussions with the Finance and Industry ministries to design measures to promote exports.

She is confident that such a move would keep exports in positive territory.

The poor woman, this alleged minister who was working in a massage parlor in a previous life, is a master clown. ๐Ÿ˜‰

She and her peers will never learn. Because they can’t but also because they don’t want to. Which is worse.

[we had another warning, from an official source, on april 10]

10 Responses to “Exports in march : get ready for the very, very bad news”


  1. 1 whoopla 21 April 2009 at 4:17 am

    TC, I know you are not on my broker payroll, but maybe you can provide your faithful readers a litle warning, a canary-in-the-mine whimper before the Thai Baht falls to 50 for one lousy US dollar?

  2. 2 ThaiCrisis 21 April 2009 at 4:33 am

    I will update the BOT “canary in the mine” chart.
    But quickly : many people were expecting a drop of THB after the “revolucion” (ole !)… Of course it didn’t happen… the BOT is guarding the temple. Face and “sentiment” are keywords currently.

    Then we have the drop of the euro… and yes the “lousy” USD still defying common sense and intelligence.
    It’s frustrating.
    ๐Ÿ˜‰
    Asian countries continue to play the silly game : Korea, China said that they will continue to buy USD treasuries.

    Furthermore, we can expect a drop of stock markets, after their total idiotic and surreal “rallye”. ah ah ah ah. By the way, it started today I think…
    But, the problem is… the panic will push USD more ! At least on short term.

    Plus we have GM heart attack still on the horizon, the fake balance sheets of US banks (amazing BoA, Citigroup etc.)… plus the Benny Hill Show about the “Stress Tests”… the news on the US property market are horrifying… The collapse of commercial real estate has begun (chapter 11 for General Growth Properties)… unemployement is rising… world trade is still under the water, the chinese as usual are bullshiting everybody with their “rebound” (the confucian-capitalists-commies are back to the good old maoist ways of making statistics AKA “calculate what your masters want you to caculate”)…

    The list is too long.

    In a nutshell : the world is insane, and worse, happy to be insane. The virus is global. We are doomed.

    So, as you see : nothing changes. The wall is still in front of us. Everybody is smiling. But the speed of the vehicle is increasing…

  3. 3 chuck tan 21 April 2009 at 8:02 am

    Look like you are overjoy with the bad news, Dr. Doom.

  4. 4 chinesethai 21 April 2009 at 10:04 am

    We have buckled up, bracing for the worst to come.

    The stock markets are fooling people.

  5. 5 Marvo 21 April 2009 at 10:33 am

    “The wall is still in front of us. Everybody is smiling. But the speed of the vehicle is increasingโ€ฆ”

    Love your analogies TC ๐Ÿ˜‰ I’m with you all the way. Just biding my time to “buy” a few mil. “GBP/USD” before the usd finally tanks for good. Or maybe the now insane world will always cling on to and never desert the sodden raft called Greenback.

  6. 6 ThaiCrisis 21 April 2009 at 11:07 am

    Yes. Indeed. A lot.
    But only when bad news show that I was right.
    ๐Ÿ˜‰

  7. 7 ray 21 April 2009 at 11:14 am

    marvo

    i think u are better off to invest in gold. after all it is a currency not an investment as people view it. baht goes down gold in thailand goes up. usd/gbp devalues gold goes up. the last post from tc sums up the situation pretty accurately.

    its scocking people still view this as a slowdown/recessions. its not. its a meltdown. the next shoe to drop is the commercial real estate in the usa. if u think sub prime was ugly u aint seen nothing yet.

    most banks in usa are insolvent. they change the rules as they go on. ie marked to market. the banks making money are smaller regional banks who did not deal in credit default swaps/securities.

    thai banks are pretty strong because of lessons learnt in 1997 but now the the sales/exports/businesses are down 25-40%. the business owners will have problems paying the banks. i live in ko samui and hotel are already having rpoblem repaying the loans.

    google gerald celente .. very interesting stuff

  8. 8 antipadshist 21 April 2009 at 11:40 am

    TC

    don’t you worry ! coz Korn is optimistic:

    Finance minister confident economy will pick up in late 2009
    http://enews.mcot.net/view.php?id=9583

    well, I can understand him very well: first top priority is to make sure he and Abhisit are still in game (of running government), second – to borrow MORE and MORE money, and last but not the least – stuff your pockets and all the available holes with cash ! ๐Ÿ˜‰ following the footsteps of mentor ol good Chuan “THe Painter” – who also plunged the country into IMF debt, and was forced to resign with his cabinet due to series of corruption scandals, and whose brother even till now is in hiding somewhere abroad. ๐Ÿ™‚

  9. 9 Bruce 21 April 2009 at 3:40 pm

    Well these guys are late with their figures, must be really bad. When will the 1Q GDP figures be released by the way?

    I hope you will be able to find time to update some of your charts (?) imports and exports, CPI/PPI/BSI, they are all very helpful, Thank you

  10. 10 ThaiCrisis 21 April 2009 at 4:11 pm

    Don’t forget Songkran and… the revolucion (ole !). So a small delay is normal.

    As for GDP Q1, it’s official : may 25, 9h30 local time.

    http://www.nesdb.go.th/Default.aspx?tabid=244


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Thailand Crisis

Coup, Economic slowdown, Terror In the South... The situation is worsening in Thailand. Bumpy road like often before.

But this time, it's different.

The key to understand the present turmoil is the inevitable... succession of King Bhumibol.


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