Chart, total credits : tightening the rope…

Thailand is catching up with the global trend : a tightening of credit.

And it’s perfectly normal : amid a full blown global recession, it makes no sense for a bank to increase its credit lines, even though the politicians and the clowns ask them to.

We have -rigthly- criticised the banks for reckless lendings… it’s not the time now to criticize them when they start to be more cautious !

Let’s repeat the golden rule : it makes so sense to lend money in order to increase production capacities (or to build more houses) during a recession. Demand is falling, and insolvency is rising (unemployment) and risks are rising.

So a few month ago, the total credit (commercial banks) was still growing 18 % year on year… but in march, the growth year on year fell to 10,9 %. And it will continue to decline. Slowly but surely.

(Source Bank Of Thailand, table FI_CB_015_S3).

CREDITMARCH1

Now let’s see with values.

CREDITMARCH3

You’ll notice that for businesses, the values are already decreasing !

One proof, from the ground :

United Overseas Bank (Thai) has slashed its loan growth target this year from 6-7 per cent to zero per cent after its loan portfolio shrunk by 10 per cent in the first three months of this year. […]

Early last month, TMB Bank also forecast that its corporate loans would flatten out this year in the bestcase scenario. (Nation)

But like everywhere else, they have tried to “boost” the system… the total is still growing, albeit (first chart) at a slower pace. But I think now it’s the tail… And we see already that this policy is a failure.

The ridiculous “stimulus song”, “bail out funk”, “boost rap”…. and all the Dildo Economy, all this keynesian crap just doesn’t work.

They have just gained a little bit of time… Very costly time.

9 Responses to “Chart, total credits : tightening the rope…”


  1. 1 antipadshist 13 May 2009 at 1:36 pm

    today I was listening to NBT radio, their financial news (sponsored by Thanachart bank) – and guess what? accordin go them – global economic crisis is almost over !
    they say – finally there are already signs of recovery, so, – make investments in our bank ! ROFLMAO πŸ˜€

    whom are they trying to fool ? those who are poor – surely they won’t be able to afford to invest. those who can afford – they are naturally not THAT stupid to believe such a BS.

    gold is 927$ today – looks like slowly but surely heading towards 1000$ plank. according to this price, in Thailand it should be now more than 16200 Baht per baht – while as I see it is 15200, which is 1000 Baht less. too evident gold price manipulation even locally (not to mention internationally – read : http://gata.org/node/7418 )

  2. 2 ThaiCrisis 13 May 2009 at 2:01 pm

    Yeah, yeah… I’m eating every morning, for breakfast, a few “green shoots”. Good for health. Well, Obama said that.
    πŸ˜‰

    There is nothing worse that people who WANT to believe their own fantasies…

    They are sheep. And as sheeps, they will be slaughtered.

    As for gold : you forgot the exchange rate issue. THB is currently gaining strenght against USD.

  3. 3 antipadshist 13 May 2009 at 10:59 pm

    well, yeah – I missed the rate change.

    nevertheless, even with correct exc. rate it should be at least 500-600 Baht higher than it is now.

  4. 4 ray 14 May 2009 at 11:22 am

    actually the us dollar is getting smashed due to the fiscal and monetary policies fo the us govt.. but dont worry the path abisit/korn has taken will lead the thai baht down the drain as well just that it will take a little more time. i see gold hitting 20,000 baht per baht of gold by end of this year.

    the more the morons in charge( govt around the world) print money to stimuate and bailout banks gold will climb much higher.

  5. 5 ray 14 May 2009 at 11:23 am

    also tc any ideas why the thai set is performing so very well?

  6. 6 Marvo 14 May 2009 at 4:07 pm

    Ray, you’re reading my mind. Over to you TC.

  7. 7 fall 14 May 2009 at 8:31 pm

    There had been rumor that certain gov-associates are capitalizing on the market by “stock manipulating”. Starting off with short-sell and buy-back.
    But without the technical and trade info, it’ld still categorize as rumor…

  8. 8 antipadshist 16 May 2009 at 5:45 pm

    Thailand Finance Ministry Says First Quarter GDP Contracted 6%
    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aLLL2esc9GKg

    Finanse ministry spokesman Somchai Sujjapongse said today in Bangkok. The economy may shrink as much as 4 percent this year, he said. Somchai said GDP may shrink 4 percent in the three months ending June 30, and 3 percent in the following quarter. He predicted 1 percent growth in the year’s final three months.
    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=afk.18yckb7w

  9. 9 antipadshist 16 May 2009 at 6:43 pm

    but what a surprise ! πŸ™‚

    Thai CP Foods Q1 net profit up 71%, above forcast
    http://www.reuters.com/article/rbssConsumerGoodsAndRetailNews/idUSBAK00076620090513

    looks like appointment of Mr. Virachai Virameteekul (formerly Vice President from CP group as I recall ?) into Ministerial position (PM’s Office) – was very frutfull? πŸ˜‰

    I mean – country’s GDP cpntracts 6% in 1st Q – while at the same time CP’s profit grows 71% – that’s pretty cool, huh ?


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Thailand Crisis

Coup, Economic slowdown, Terror In the South... The situation is worsening in Thailand. Bumpy road like often before.

But this time, it's different.

The key to understand the present turmoil is the inevitable... succession of King Bhumibol.


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