Shoot at the “green shoots” : historic y-o-y drop of government’s revenues in april

Shall we eat the Green Shoots ? Or shoot at them ? Hum… It’s tax day. And therefore it’s time to analyse the april report, from the Finances Ministry.

First, the headline from the thai press :

Thai govt revenue in first seven months of fiscal 2009 down 16.67% from projection (TNA)

First comment : nobody gives a rat shit about “projections“, made a year and half ago (for the budget), by some bureaucrats and politicians. We have to compare revenues to… revenues from the previous year. A year on year comparison. Everything else is fantasy.

Second comment : before to look at a summary of the seven months of the fiscal year, let’s have a look on… april.

APRIL FACTS :
-VAT collections went down 19,35 % compared to april 2008. Hum… Green shoots are cracking under my teeth. Tasty. In march ? We were at minus 18,81 %.

the pace of the drop is accelerating for corporate taxes (-21 %), that’s a bad sign. I don’t understand : the clown Korn, alleged Finances Minister, told us that corporate taxes would save the day… Hum… sorry folks, that was in february… Like a century ago.

-but overall, the very bad sign is the historic drop of total (net and gross) of government revenues in april : -28 % (net) compared to april 2008 ! One expression is coming to my mind : punch. A punch into the face.

[mistake on the chart : units are not “millions” THB. Multiply by 1000. Example : april corporate tax = 15 589 000 000 THB = 15,58 billions THB]

COMPARETAXARP

Let me put in another way : in one year, almost 30 % of the government’s revenues have just vanished… Into som tam, into thin air, into the Chao Praya River… who knows ?

Now, from a budget point of view, this is a serious problem… πŸ˜‰

Particularly when the alleged government, led by Abhisit, is doing everything it can to increase the damages (by following inane policies, giving money away, subsidies, by political games… and of course by sheer stupidity, I mean lack of competences).

Anyway. Here is the chart about VAT.

VATAPRIL

What a nice salad of Green Shoots. And let me remind you (like the mustard touch into the vinaigrette), that the Clown Abhisit (a very bad chef) gave 20 billions THB, as a national bribe… in april

A large chunk of this money was spent in shops. Generating VAT of course…

Let’s make a quick calculation : 7 % of 20 billions = 1,4 billion… hum… πŸ˜‰

Anyway. Let’s finish with the official report for april, with amounts and % of change year on year, and types of tax.

Enjoy the corporate tax, the excises taxes… Speaking about excises… you’ll notice a striking +50 % for tobacco taxes. πŸ˜‰ That’s smoking… And what do you think about the fact that the increase of tax on tobbaco… has just been approved by the House… I mean today ? Now, you are smoked. And in the Rabbit Hole. πŸ˜‰

And don’t worry about the minus 46 % for car taxes. Everything is sabai. Everything is green.

GVTREVPRILREPORT

Go in peace.

And remember : may 25, it’s GDP Q1 report day…

Nicknamed : Abhisit’s Day. Nicknamed : The Slap Into The Face Day.

11 Responses to “Shoot at the “green shoots” : historic y-o-y drop of government’s revenues in april”


  1. 1 Halfaboy 18 May 2009 at 12:55 pm

    I’m wondering about the units as shown in chart ‘April facts’. Let’s take as an example the Corporate Taxes over September 2008. They amount to 72.882.380. These are expressed in millions of Baht, so the final figure would be 72.882.380.000.000,–

    Can you tell me how this would be pronounced ?

  2. 2 ThaiCrisis 18 May 2009 at 1:15 pm

    My mistake. Units are not “millions”. Just multiply by 1000 to get the total in THB. Example : september 2008 corporate tax = 72 882 380 000 = 72,82 billions THB.

    The Finances Ministry uses “millions” in its reports.

    I agree, it’s not very clear : I will change the formula, and update charts, to show directly amounts in billions THB. It will be easier to read.

  3. 4 ThaiCrisis 19 May 2009 at 4:25 pm

    Another Total and All Times Classic from Not The Nation.

    This guy is a real genius. And beyond the surrealism, an astute observer of thai’s behaviours, obsessions, ways of life etc.

  4. 5 antipadshist 19 May 2009 at 5:00 pm

    it is interesting to see that comparing to Sep 2008 corporate taxes decreased from 72,82bln to 15.58bln in Apr 2009 – which is almost 5 times !
    at the same times personal income taxes increased from 14.93bln (Sep) to 16.82bln (Apr)

    so, I wonder why is that ? πŸ˜‰

    regarding revenues :

    Korn berates Puea Thai on loan delay
    Warns public will suffer without B400bn decree
    http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/local/16909/korn-berates-puea-thai-on-loan-delay

    “The opposition Puea Thai Party claimed Article 184 of the constitution only allowed the government to seek loans on an emergency basis, while the amount of money stated in the draft decree was much higher than the government actually needs

    Of the 400 billion baht in loans set out in the decree, at least 200 billion baht will be used to make up for this year’s tax revenue, which has fallen short of target. Another 200 billion baht will be spent on investment projects that could be implemented immediately.

    The government has insisted that the executive decree is necessary given the urgent need to use the money.

    Public Debt Management Office director general Pongpanu Svetraundra said the country’s public debt was still in the safe area, well under its ceiling of 47% of gross domestic product. In February, public debt was at 40% of GDP.

    Pornchai Thiraveja, a senior expert at the Fiscal Policy Office, supported the government’s loan decree, saying that without the fresh loans the government would have to spend another 100 billion baht from its treasury reserve, leaving about 50 billion baht in the reserve coffers.

    But Direk Patmasiriwat, a lecturer at Thammasat University’s faculty of economics, voiced opposition to the government’s loan plan.

    He said the loan amount was too high. Between 30 and 40 billion baht would be enough.

    Mr Direk said the government’s mistakes in its mid-2009 budgeting had forced it to seek loans in excess of 100 billion baht. He said the government might also not be in power long enough to finish projects to be funded by the loans it is seeking.

    However, Mr Direk said he supported the government’s plan to grant loans to domestic borrowers.”

    wow ! at least some guys like Direk are talking sense and has balls to point out gov.’s own budgeting mistakes ! πŸ˜€
    although it doesn’t take one to be a specialist in economics to see that Dems are too desperate trying hard to get those loans ASAP, while they still can ! Korn knows the stakes, that’s why he openly attacks PT for “damaging the country”.

    hmmmm…

    tax revenues are lacking, huh ? why not tax the giant corporations more ? say, CP – who has reported 71% increase of profits in Q1.

    instead Dems want to borrow abroad to pay off their own waste of money (“mistakes in budgeting”) AND some vague “projects” – which as Direk has rightly pointed out Dems will not be long enough in power to complete ! main thing is – they’ll give money to their buddies (sponsors / patrons) to eat (aka “develop projects”).

    but hey, that is not their worry, right ? πŸ˜‰ main thing right now : BORROW more, as much as possible and ASAP. and later let the public (taxpayers) and next gov. (obviousl not Dems, who never can win elections) pay off those debts !

    (read : Dissolution: not why but when?
    http://www.bangkokpost.com/opinion/opinion/16926/dissolution-not-why-but-when)

    would anyone point this out to Korn ?

    oh, wait ! one mission is already accomplished :

    B1.7t budget bill gets green light
    http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/local/143724/b1-7t-budget-bill-gets-green-light

    “1.436 trillion baht, or 84.5 per cent of the total budget, was allocated for fixed costs, with about 12.5 per cent, or 212,689.2 billion baht, set aside for investment spending.”

    Abhisit has mentioned recently to some foreign media that he would like to make sure that budget is accepted before the next elections.

  5. 6 antipadshist 19 May 2009 at 5:48 pm

    Korbsak :
    “never mind Constitution – our pockets are at stake here”
    http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/politics/143681/kobsak-court-ruling-may-affect-economy πŸ™‚

    “Mr Kobsak, who oversees economic affairs, said if the court decides the decree is in violation of the constitution the government would have to draft a new decree urgently.

    Such a ruling may affect the government’s ability to address economic issues, he said, and may deter investors interested in doing businesses in the country.”

    sorry to be thick : how is BORROWING related to investors being detered ?

  6. 7 sammy 20 May 2009 at 2:14 pm

    Just out of curiosity, do you have a comprehensive plan to offer or advice what the government should be doing? I am curious myself.

  7. 8 ThaiCrisis 20 May 2009 at 3:49 pm

    Oh sure.
    I’ve sent a letter to Abhisit in order to propose my expertise, with a comprehensive set of policies to follow.

    He was kind enough to answer me, very pronto : “sorry ThaiCrisis, we know you’re good, but you are way too expensive… You know… the crisis… Harsh times… Well yes of course you know”…
    πŸ˜‰
    I am not the government. The government has a job to do (allegedly). And us, as citizens, we have the duty to scrutinize the government.

    If you want to be a gullible sheep, ready to swallow everything the government is saying, or doing because it is the government… well up to you.

    Furthermore it’s not because I don’t have a miracle answer to one specific problem.. that I can’t say that one government’s action is wrong, that I’m not qualified to criticize the government.

    You get my point ?

    Many times, people try to trap me with such cheap rethoric. But, it doesn’t work. Because I’m an expert to debunk this kind of rethoric thai politicians love to use.

    So if you’re comment tried to be ironic, then don’t waste your time. If it wasn’t, then you’ll find everywhere on Internet articles that explain the ideas, policies, and ultimately the philosophy that all governments should follow in order to cure many of our current problems.

    http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/

    http://mises.org/

    Liberalism, sound money, common sense, humility, small government, freedom, rule of laws, responsability, refusal to be a veal, ability to use our neurons, humanism etc…

    It’s everywhere.

    Let me summarize :
    -a minister who say in february that corporate taxes are going to save the day, when we have a global recession, when 25 % of thai exports have been wipped out, is nothing but an amateur.
    Recession = less profits = less taxes.
    Even a child in primary school could understand this.

    -a minister who multiply the gifts, the subsidies, during a recession (aka a negative growth of GDP) can’t expect to have a balanced budget, so he can’t cry after and complain about the situation

    -a minister who believes that the country just need to borrow money in order to solve the economic crisis, is an amateur

    -a minister who spend all his time talking about “stimulus”, “mega projects” but who is unable to start the smallest real investment project, is an amateur

    etc. etc. etc.

  8. 9 Patiwat 20 May 2009 at 4:18 pm

    Apparently it is too “expensive” to lift the containers out of the ocean floor of sattahip. A proper investigation is not needed because it is too costly. Costly for who? The military?

  9. 10 ThaiCrisis 20 May 2009 at 5:05 pm

    Yes…. this story is very frustrating… between urban myth and horrible reality.
    I wanted to write something about it…. but honestly… I feel too tired. Nothing changes. Always the same bullshit…

    You’ll see that they will still be talking about the gender of angels in a few months…

  10. 11 whoopla 21 May 2009 at 2:16 am

    Not The Nation’s surrealism is a page taken from Thaksins Italian Brother Berlusconi, Media Moghul Straordinario, who has transformed the Italian private and state media into one gigantic burlesque show. His latest personal recruitment of an underage “velina” was the straw that broke his camel-wifes back.


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Thailand Crisis

Coup, Economic slowdown, Terror In the South... The situation is worsening in Thailand. Bumpy road like often before.

But this time, it's different.

The key to understand the present turmoil is the inevitable... succession of King Bhumibol.


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