Green Shoots Story : exports crashed 26,1 % in april

The first figures for exports and imports in april have been published (details will follow on may 31, by the Bank Of Thailand).

It’s another Green Shoots Story…

Exports in April nosedived 26.1 per cent while imports plunged 36.3 per cent, Commerce Ministry permanent secretary Siripol Yodmuangcharoen said on Wednesday.

The export value last month was US$10.429 million while the import value stood at US$9.834 million, resulting in a trade surplus of US$ 595 million, Mr Siripol said. (Bangkok Post)

Here is the chart.

EXPORTSAPRIL

Where are the clowns ? Where are Abhisit and Korn ?

If exports stay at the same level in may… the % of change year on year would be -34 %.

However, I expect a small rebound. In any case, we should keep the pace of a minus 25 % year on year.

17 Responses to “Green Shoots Story : exports crashed 26,1 % in april”


  1. 1 Lothar 20 May 2009 at 6:51 pm

    1/3 reduction in world wide consumption of consumer goods is just a very reasonable number. Japan stays stable at a 40-45% low for export during the last month. Germany is not better in any ways.

    So in my opinion the governments of the world should not hope for stimulus packages but reorganize there society so that they can live with this new numbers.

    The last 10 years were all based on a non realistic hype. Back to production for the people instead of financial voodo transactions doesn’t sound scary for me.

  2. 2 Lloyd 20 May 2009 at 8:14 pm

    As Lothar says the last 10 years have all been a false dream.

    What is interesting is that in “real” terms, with the lack of cash for anything but necessities the only “true” growth areas are now are in the Agricultural sector, which is where Thailand should shine, but where Thailand has invested very little time and money in the past decade, will this now change?

  3. 3 Lothar 21 May 2009 at 1:06 am

    Well i only hope that they are not so stupid and open the door to this disgusting scumbags from Monsanto Corp.

    But nevertheless Agriculture today as a solution for a whole 60 million country. Sorry i can’t see this as a perspective. We see in europe that you only need 3% of the population working in the agriculture sector and this is still to much competition for them to make enough money for a living.

    Maybe in the future when we run out of oil for fertilizers and heavy machines.

  4. 4 Jaap 21 May 2009 at 2:52 am

    It would be nice to see if you posted some happy numbers here. Thailand is really trying to get this country on the road and he isn’t doing a bad job so far at all.
    Economy is slow in every country at the moment, they try to stimulate it by putting in some extra money in several segments at the moment and they ain’t doing a bad job at all. Maybe the author of this blog didn’t go to Bangkok a long time but this city is still developing in high speed.
    Off course we are hurt, same like a lot of other societies and countries but Abhisit isn’t doing bad at all. He keeps the country together and is not afraid to use structured violence against rude and almost terrorist acting protesters.
    The Songkran showdown was save, easy and well done. The economy is being saved at the moment by the first Prime Minister of Thailand who is not afraid to stand up against the so called Elite. ( which in my mind is a utopia.)
    Off course Thailand is still struggling to be a legitimate Democracy but this guy beats all of them who came before him.
    Lets make this easy.. I believe your blog is somewhat single minded and probably written by a guy or woman who doesn’t want to change Thailand but wants to kick against the change..
    I really was a big fan of you but lately you are to pessimistic in my view.
    Hope to see some good things here otherwise maybe I should just go back to the Bangkok Post. They are crappy as well!

  5. 5 ThaiCrisis 22 May 2009 at 12:49 am

    Sorry Jaap, but your comment doesn’t make any sense.

    -Happy numbers
    I can talk about “happy numbers” if we don’t have some… I can’t create them. Currently, there are no happy numbers. Furthermore, this blog’s title is ThaiCrisis not “Thai Happy Happy Lolilop”

    -Extra money
    It’s not because other countries are doing stupid things that Thailand have to follow ! Do you know where the “extra money” is coming from? Debts. Coffers are empty. So you’ll pay later. That should make you happy ?
    And tell me : what effects this “extra money” will have on the 25 % drop of exports for instance ? NIL. Abhisit gave a national bribe of 2000 THB to 9 millions of low income people.
    Who is talking about it, one month later ? What were the effects on the economy ? A FART. A happy fart. And a fart that costed 20 billions THB. Great policy. Let’s go further on this road : Abhisit should give to all human beings in Thailand (and plants and animals too) 1 billion THB. Then all our problems would be solved, right ?
    This is the kind of absurd and idiotic policy created by your happy-happy bias.
    There is no free lunch in this world. No “extra-money” coming from the sky. Okay ?

    -Keep the country together ?
    Well, yeah he managed to get back on his feet after the Pattaya Crisis… But does it mean that the country is “together” again ? Of course not. The country is divided. More than ever. To promote a ridiculous happy-happy-attitude won’t change this fact. The thai society is divided.

    -Abhisit against the elite ?
    I would like to know the name of the drug you use. Because it seems very powerful and happy-happy. I want the same.

    -Abhisit better than the previous PM ?
    Well, first, we have the base effect. When we have a monster like Samak, every other man taking the office after looks like superman ! Fair enough. But in any case, since december, Abhisit did very little. The first cracks are showing in his “Frankenstein Coalition”. Abhisit won’t stay PM long…

    -ThaiCrisis doesn’t want to see changes in Thailand ?
    Well again, you must confuse my blog with another one. I spend my times to say that Thailand and the thai people deserve better, much better, than its politicians, its military, the old clique, the old habits, etc.

  6. 6 James 22 May 2009 at 1:24 am

    Right now, Western investors are betting that the emerging economies like Thailand, are going to escape this credit crisis and continue growing. However, it seems that these economies sustained themselves by using reserves, and they are almost all gone; the bet on high commodity prices isn’t going to do much for these economies for a while either. Now, the safest bet for emerging economies is greater trade with one another, and if that shows signs of weakening — heads-up! Jaap, Abhisist may not be the best at running an economy, but I do think he is one of the better PM’s Thailand has had in a long time! I wish him the best of luck!

  7. 7 Lothar 22 May 2009 at 4:37 am

    Welcome my yellow shirted unknown friend. You show the real attitude of thailand. Be happy, don’t worry – mai pen rai.

    Sorry but times are serious and while other countries make also mistakes Thailand has to be double carefull because they are in a much worse starting position for this downfall of world wide economy.

    But if you really are a typical thai you will never read this answers because thais don’t like to be involved in negative (outlook) discussions about politics. After all you never learned that being negative is a very good (and IMHO the only) way to find new solutions.

    And by the way, i call the songkran riots the red freedom fighter liberation battle (unfortunately lost), just to make my viewpoint off this topic perfectly clear.

  8. 8 Bedwyr 22 May 2009 at 10:31 am

    @TC:

    I think you are being harsh on the lad. He is a Thai, either by birth or by acclimatisation. Because he is Thai, he probably cannot cope with reality and needs the quick hit of a propaganda ‘happy pill’ to keep functioning.

    You ought to consider publishing the type of euphoric crap that ABAAC produces out of its hat (or its ass) by running its meaningless ‘surveys’.

    Like:

    95% of Thais think that all Thais should love each other.

    All Thais know the King is not involved in politics.

    The average IQ in Thailand is 87 but that is a mistake in the IQ tests so the Govt will keep re-sampling until it gets the answers it wants.

    82% of Thais think that Abhisit is doing a good job of uniting the Nation.

    Thais don;t like drama or documentaries on TV, they only like comedy (like Thai attempts at comedy actually qualify as anything but humiliation).

    and of course, the crowning glory:

    99% of people are happy being Thai and want to be Thai in their next incarnation as well.

    That ought to do it TC – please try to be more positive would you? And don’t forget, if you can’t find any sufficiently soporific good news to keep the masses happily thoughtless and clueless, make some up. Works for the government.

    Bedwyr

  9. 9 Kutjebu 22 May 2009 at 10:45 am

    Jaap,

    I think you’re reading to much the Abhisit(Bangkok) Post and the Nation.You can read lies and good news there.
    When you don’t want to read the true,don’t read Thai Crisis,for me the best BLOG in Thailand.

  10. 10 Actu Film 22 May 2009 at 6:55 pm

    TC I enjoy reading your blog and I feel like you’re frustrated that things don’t change. Would be great if you were launching a Thai version of Thai Crisis. It would be valuable to Thai people (who don’t speak English) to know about your writing, and then it could have more impact.

    Too bad I don’t speak Thai well enough to give you a hand at translating, but maybe some Thai reader could volunteer to help you if need be?

    anayway, keep up the good work!

  11. 11 whereisjornhendrikx 22 May 2009 at 10:18 pm

    GDP Thailand:

    Real growth rate:

    2003 5,20 %
    2004 6,70 %
    2005 6,10 %
    2006 4,50 %
    2007 4,80 %
    2008 4,80 %

    What is your estimate in 2009?

    Source CIA factbook

  12. 12 Tarrin 22 May 2009 at 11:14 pm

    Jaap –
    I’ve read your comment and, well, I got to say you said the word “aint doing bad at all” for so many times.

    “Maybe the author of this blog didn’t go to Bangkok a long time but this city is still developing in high speed.”-
    HIGH SPEED???? what is developing?? number of people that are begging for change on almost every intersection? I dont see any mega project being develop.

    “He keeps the country together and is not afraid to use structured violence against rude and almost terrorist acting protesters.”-
    I want to see how he will deal with the PAD… really, and btw, the country is still divided, Abhisit might win a battle but he’s not winning the war.

    “the first Prime Minister of Thailand who is not afraid to stand up against the so called Elite.”-
    Excuse me???? ABHISIT IS THE ELITE!!!! what drug did you take??

  13. 13 ThaiCrisis 23 May 2009 at 3:30 am

    Minus 3. And I think I’m optimistic. 😉

  14. 14 fall 23 May 2009 at 9:39 am

    Com’on, give Jaap time to explain his answer, as to why Abhisit is not bad!
    May be he know some information that we dont? Abhisit might achieved his-99-days-policy or deliver whatever he had promise before election campaign?
    There might actually be two brain cell that rub together behind that pretty, cardboard cutout face.

  15. 15 antipadshist 23 May 2009 at 6:58 pm

    Abhisit attends the seminar “Time to stop being poor”.

    “Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva and Bangkok governor Sukhumbhand Paribatra attend a governmentheld seminar at the Army Club in Bangkok. The session is entitled: “It’s time to stop being poor” and features sufficiency economy philosophy.”
    (caption to the photo on Nation :
    http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2009/05/23/national/images/30103430-01.jpg )

    I wonder, why would be this seminar held at Army Club ?
    does it imply that army are poor and Abhisit wants them stop being poor ? 🙂

    this sort of seminar should be held in some more appropriate place – say, some REALLY POOR village. but then, Abhisit would never go there.

  16. 16 John 24 May 2009 at 3:49 am

    This world crisis is being treated with the same means that caused it, namely loads (wagons) of cheap money. Yet some people think it is getting better already.

    It is like a heroin addict is taken to a hospital in a crisis situation and all the doctors can think of to help him is to give more herion. When asked the patient says he never felt better in his life and that he is wondering why they keep him in hospital.

  17. 17 Bedwyr 24 May 2009 at 9:55 am

    Time to stop being poor.

    Thats alright then, all thats needed is simply to decide to stop being poor – right?

    Sufficiency philosophy? Isn’t that the hare-brained scam dreamed up by some very rich guy with no clue about economics? Doesn’t it basically say that if you are poor, mais pen rai? If you are poor, it must be your karma so enjoy being poor and don’t be envious of the rich folk?

    I thought so. Very credible.

    Bedwyr


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Thailand Crisis

Coup, Economic slowdown, Terror In the South... The situation is worsening in Thailand. Bumpy road like often before.

But this time, it's different.

The key to understand the present turmoil is the inevitable... succession of King Bhumibol.


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