Thunderstorm : GDP shrank 7,1 % during Q1

It was supposed to be the Abhisit’s Day, AKA The Slap In The Face Day (read here). Well… “mission accomplished” !

GDP120091

GDP in 1Q 09 drastically contracted by 7.1%, compared with a decrease of 4.2% in 4Q08, due to world economic crisis which severely affected goods and services exports, a main contributor of Thai economy.

Export value of goods in dollar terms decreased by 19.9%, whereas import value reduced dramatically by 38.3%. Moreover, investment shrank by 15.8%, along with household consumption expenditure which reduced by 2.6%.

However, government expenditure expanded slightly by 2.8%. (NESDB)

It’s a striking fall. But it’s absolutely not a surprise… Only fools, AKA the whole government and all the bureaucrats, could be surprised. The same people told us that the “recovery” was on its way (read here).

Central bank began to witness signs of recovery in the first quarter.

When did they say that ? January 16 !

There is a word for this kind of simple minded people and liars : clowns.

Anyway, you’ll find all the figures (statistical tables) and the official report here.

I will update the charts as soon as possible. Meanwhile you can still read my report about GDP Q4 2008.

It’s so predictable : the same clowns who were wrong and/or who lied 3 months ago, started the new tune today : “bottom out… Q2 will be better”.

It’s funny because when we look at the indicators for april (the first month of Q2)… well… we see the exact same patterns than the previous months : exports down (25 %), sales of cars down, investments dropping, VAT collections falling, etc…

Anyway. I will give more details on my report (just need a little bit of time to write it). 😉

7 Responses to “Thunderstorm : GDP shrank 7,1 % during Q1”


  1. 1 antipadshist 25 May 2009 at 10:00 pm

    TC

    now, what would you say to this :

    PM takes some joy in economy
    http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/politics/17282/pm-takes-some-joy-in-economy

    JOY ! 😀

    well, my guess – the joy is all about the anticipated roeign laon and “stimulus” package. aka the “cake sharing” soon.

  2. 2 ThaiCrisis 25 May 2009 at 10:33 pm

    Another totally ridiculous article, nourrished by utterly ridiculous statements from Abhisit.

    Just one example :
    To boost government spending, the government needs to earn more money by issuing bonds and increasing excise taxes,” Mr Abhisit said.

    This sentence makes no sense… To issue bonds is certainly not “earning money”… Bonds = debts. Okay, it could be a translation issue… but still it shows the “state of mind” of Abhisit. A poor keneysian politician who believes that government can “make” money…
    Same with the so called “sin taxes”… Higher taxes will probably lower consumption… and will remove cash that would have been used -differently- by the private sector.

    Government do not create wealth, nor jobs. Government can just take on one side, to give to another side (with losses in the middle of the process…).

    I will keep this article. Abhisit will lose face on Q2, Q3 and Q4… Like he did already, like the BOT did (the famous recovery is under way… on Q1) etc.

    Abhisit has no credibility anymore.

  3. 3 fall 25 May 2009 at 11:07 pm

    Abhisit will lose face on Q2, Q3 and Q4

    No Thai media would dare touch the golden boy, much less reporting who is responsible. Hence, no face would be loss.

    Since The One had risen to power, name one screw up in Thailand that got reported and assigned as the Dem fault.

  4. 4 Lothar 26 May 2009 at 3:53 am

    No @ThaiCrisis. Issuing bonds is earning money. You are still the old school – with the naive idea that government credits are the same as in the private sector and need to be payed back.

    Bonds are not there to be ever paid back. The only cost are interest rates for some time (the time span where you try to keep your lenders in good mood and pay a few bucks).

    Same here as everywhere. If Abhisit finds someone stupid enough to pay for Bonds they earned money. If Obama can, Thais (the supreme race) can for sure.

  5. 5 ThaiCrisis 26 May 2009 at 12:56 pm

    Lothar…. if I am old school (and I am), you are definitely too… cynical.
    😉

    Yes I agree with you : a lot of bonds (US …) will never be paid back…. But watch out… not everybody is named “US of A”….

    Thailand is a much smaller country… and believe me it can’t be as creative, from a financial point of view, than the USA or Japan.

  6. 6 robuzo 26 May 2009 at 2:22 pm

    “Thailand is a much smaller country… and believe me it can’t be as creative, from a financial point of view, than the USA or Japan.”

    I believe Simon Johnson backs you up there:

    From the article: “I saw firsthand the steady flow of officials—from Ukraine, Russia, Thailand, Indonesia, South Korea, and elsewhere—trudging to the fund when circumstances were dire and all else had failed.
    -snip-
    . . .I must tell you, to IMF officials, all of these crises looked depressingly similar. Each country, of course, needed a loan, but more than that, each needed to make big changes so that the loan could really work. Almost always, countries in crisis need to learn to live within their means after a period of excess—exports must be increased, and imports cut—and the goal is to do this without the most horrible of recessions. Naturally, the fund’s economists spend time figuring out the policies—budget, money supply, and the like—that make sense in this context. Yet the economic solution is seldom very hard to work out.”
    – – –
    I doubt that parties willing to lend to Thailand now would be willing to be much more lenient than lenders from ’97~


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Thailand Crisis

Coup, Economic slowdown, Terror In the South... The situation is worsening in Thailand. Bumpy road like often before.

But this time, it's different.

The key to understand the present turmoil is the inevitable... succession of King Bhumibol.


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