Virtual reality : here we go again, the Bank Of Thailand sees “recovery”

They will never learn.

The Bank Of Thailand, the thai central bank, lost all credibility mid january, when it announced the recovery… When actually the thai economy was plunging, very deep !

Bank of Thailand (BoT) deputy governor Atchana Waiquamdee on Wednesday voiced confidence that the country’s economy this year would not experience negative growth, despite the world economic situation, saying the central bank began to witness signs of recovery in the first quarter.

It was the deputy governor, not a part time secretary…

Anyway. Four months after, and after the publication of a plunge of 7 % of GDP on Q1, the central bank does it again !

The Thai economy began signalling recovery in April despite political unrest and long public holidays, according to the Bank of Thailand (BoT).

BoT Local Economy Division senior director Amara Sripayak said Friday that economic data released in April was better than expected.

The industrial production index rose 7.6 per cent and private consumption index edged up 0.7 per cent from the previous month because there was an increase in purchase orders in the electronics and electrical appliance sectors.

However, private investment index shrank 16.4 per cent due to the economic slowdown as Thailand’s production capacity utilization stayed low at 59.7 per cent.

Additionally, the business confidence index edged down to 39.2 from 40 points in March because of concerns over the political and economic uncertainties.

She said the shrinkage in the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) of 7.1 per cent in the first quarter of this year announced by the National Economic and Social Development Board is a further contraction from the fourth quarter last year.

Still, economic indicators had picked up on a monthly basis. Even so, the central bank remained uncertain whether the economic recovery could gain momentum. It needed to monitor internal and external factors for a while.

April also saw private-sector loans increase by Bt29.4 billion after contracting for three consecutive months. Most are consumer loans and credit facilities extended by state-owned banks after the government had accelerated lending. (TNA)

The same non sense is starting again. Those brainless bureaucrats always mix up reality and wishful thinking.

Of course, we all would like to see the thai economy improving. Unfortunatly, the indicators we got for april (and not “indexes”) are still deeply depressed. I show it over and over on my blog :

-tax collections (VAT as a indicator of consumption) : in the black hole

-exports ? -27 % and no signs of recovery

-consumption and investments with sales of cars : still in deep red at -27 %

What else ? Investments by the government and public spending : excepted 20 billions THB given away in april (the famous “national bribe” designed by Abhisit), nothing real. The mega projects and all the Lalaland projects are still virtual.

So, I’m confident : the BOT, once again, will be humiliated in the coming 2 months.

GDP Q2 will be as bad as Q1.

And It will make my day when I will repeat the statement made by the bank announcing the “recovery” in april…

3 Responses to “Virtual reality : here we go again, the Bank Of Thailand sees “recovery””

  1. 1 banphai 31 May 2009 at 9:40 am

    An article in the latest online edition of the UK Economist is interesting:

  2. 2 Marvo 31 May 2009 at 2:28 pm

    The only ammo the BoT and the Government have left is to desperately try to hide the truth and boost the Thai public’s confidence to $pend $pend $pend the nation out of it’s downward spiral. It’s a strategy being opperated globally it would seem.

  3. 3 Gloomy Observer 31 May 2009 at 9:54 pm

    It would be humiliated if a journalist pointed it out to the pu yai in public during a press conference. Or even in print. But they won’t, so no problem (!)

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Thailand Crisis

Coup, Economic slowdown, Terror In the South... The situation is worsening in Thailand. Bumpy road like often before.

But this time, it's different.

The key to understand the present turmoil is the inevitable... succession of King Bhumibol.

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