Data for april have been published. Time to update our charts.
I remind you : exports crashed 26 % in april (in USD), compared to april 2008.
Let’s have a look on total exports and total imports (in billions THB).
My readers already know that the decrease of trade balance on april is not a good omen for GDP Q2… Because net exports (exports minus imports) have been a positive contributors for GDP growth on Q1 (read my article here). So a reduced net exports will mean a lower contribution… AKA a downward pressure on an already depressed GDP…
Prices of oil seem on an upward trend, that’s bad for the thai economy. And the government is already totally broke, it means with a much lower capacity of subsidy if oil prices increase a lot.
Now, let’s see the values of exports per zones of destination.
Only one good news : the group China + HK etc… is increasing. But for other big markets like Japan, UE, Nafta, Middle East, no Green Shoots.
And now my special chart with the % of change, compared to the “Thai Peak Exports”, AKA the all time highs. It was in july 2008, with a total of 575 billions THB.
In april 2009, we were at 367 billions… That’s a serious gap.
Green shoots ? Not really. However, from a low of -50 %, Asean is now at -31 %. That’s better.
Source Bank Of Thailand (table EC_XT_002).