Another month… and another weak report about credit cards in Thailand.
In april, the total number of credit cards went down compared to the previous month (-6 900)… The last month-on-month decline was… in february 2008 (-13 000 cards compared to january 2008)
But year-on-year, we still have a +8,45 %. growth.
(Source Bank Of Thailand, table FI_CB_080_S2)
As for the spendings, the negative trend is still there : -3 % compared to april 2008.
Card spending at home and abroad and cash withdrawals all dropped at an accelerated pace in April, a time when consumers normally spend a lot for the holidays. (Nation)
Disappointed ? You were thinking : “Damnit ! Obama told us about Green Shoots beginning of april… At the G20 in London, they said that. So do they today”. And Abhisit ? Our dashing Prime Minister also promised us flowers and honey… for later (Q4 2009) ? What the hell is happening ?
Yes. And they will continue to say so. And they will continue to be wrong. Pathetically wrong.
To behave like the Boiler Room (“buy ! buy ! cheap ! Everything is cool, normal again ! The crisis is over ! Buy ! ! Take a loan ! Buy a new car ! And a house too ! Interets rates are so low ! Buy !”) shows how deep is their desperation…
On the other hand, I’m going to tell you what won’t happen in the near future :
Somchai won’t increase his credit card spendings, because he won’t find a new job, with a better salary, created by a company that won’t export because there is no demand… And he won’t take a new loan (because the bank doesn’t want risk anymore) because he can’t, and because he’s afraid. Of losing the job he already has…
This will impact shops. And suppliers. Therefore production. Therefore companies profits. Therefore state’s revenues (taxes, VAT etc.), etc.
And the crisis won’t end.
Play it again Sam. Again and again. Multiply this chain of events by millions… in several countries…
The negative loop. Not a linear process…
[Tomorrow : a new chart. And new bad figures about the car market in Thailand… in may ! Holly cow, wait a minute, may was really supposed to be the month of the Green Shoots wasn’it ? !
And may was after the “revolucion” (you remember the thai army shooting on the streets of Bangkok…). So ? What happened ? Read again this article… From the beginning. 😉 ]