Abhisit starts to understand : thai exports are falling because…

Eureka !

Our dashing PM starts to understand. Light the candles !

The government will reassess the problems causing Thailand’s exports to decline sharply, Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva said on Saturday.

“I’ve already asked the Finance Ministry” to probe the trend, Mr. Abhisit said. “However, the major reason is that the purchasing power of (our) trading partners has fallen and (our government’s) measures are expected to produce (only) limited results.”

This is the reason why the government must focus on domestic investment to stimulate the economy, he said. (TNA)

After months of lies, of grotesque forecasts (the famous “targets”), of hysterical “Green Shoots” foolishness and tons of other non-sense talking, Abhisit starts to speak… truely.

yes there is nothing Thailand can do about world demand

-the inane “stimulus”, “boost” and other “dildos plans” have zero effects on exports, none whatsoever

-no there aren’t any untapped exports markets, in other solar systems, that could save thai exporters (-26,6 % in may)

-yes if the negative trend continues, the damages will increase greatly (bankruptcies, defaults on loans, more unemployment etc.). Negative loop feedback. It’s probably unavoidable at that point.

-yes, like I repeat over and over on this blog since several months (read here and there), don’t expect any recovery of exports anytime soon. Peak Exports (july 2008) is behind us. And will stay behind us.

-last but not least : Thailand has (had) an export driven economy… So for that matter it’s easy to foresee difficult times ahead as far as GDP is concerned… if the negative trend on exports continues for long.

Private consumption is dead, investments too… and government is broke (read my GDP report)… So ?

How the thai GDP could grow ? With love and water ? Wishful thinking ? Abhisit’s smile ? How ?

6 Responses to “Abhisit starts to understand : thai exports are falling because…”


  1. 1 fall 22 June 2009 at 11:33 pm

    Let see if the golden boy would start raising tariff on import to fix trade deficit, just like what the US did before the Great Depression…

  2. 2 ThaiCrisis 22 June 2009 at 11:44 pm

    Watch out Fall… we don’t have trade deficit right now ! But a fat surplus ! Imports have collapsed (-34 % in may !!!). And oil prices are still lower than last year : so the balance is positive (eventhough I agree it’s not a “healthy” positive… it could turn negative very quickly and with no warning).

  3. 3 antipadshist 23 June 2009 at 12:11 am

    here is a quote from WB latest assessment on “recovery” :

    The World Bank, in a report released yesterday, said that “for several countries – including Malaysia, Thailand, and the Philippines – outright recession is anticipated this year.”

    The report, titled “Global Development Finance 2009: Charting a Global Recovery,” said developing countries, including the Philippines and others in the East Asia and the Pacific region, would face steep declines in the inflow of foreign capital this year. Anemic investments will drag down their overall economic growths, it said.

    The World Bank projected that combined inflows of foreign, private investments into developing economies would be slashed to $363 billion this year, just about half of the $707 billion registered last year when the crisis was punctuated by the failure of several financial giants in the United States and Europe. It noted that last year’s foreign capital inflow to developing nations was already a sharp decline from the $1.2 trillion recorded in 2007.
    http://business.inquirer.net/money/topstories/view/20090622-211882/World-Bank-sees-RP-slipping-into-recession

    I guess this is the original source :

    Global Monitoring Report 2009

    particularly :

    Global Financial Crisis and Impact on Developing Countries

  4. 4 Lothar 23 June 2009 at 10:51 am

    The trade surplus is of course not healthy but it shows another problem of thailand. Unlike export driven countries like Japan and Germany the Thais face the problem that they are just the assembly line for most exported goods (is there anything else then rice and shrimps which is pure export?).

    So it’s not as important as for Japan or Germany. Because the Thai export depending jobs are just shitty low paid factory jobs.

    Thats what you get when the lazy elite guys in BKK think that education is not important and using the term Thai Engineer becames an insult for all Engineers (like me) around the world.

  5. 5 ThaiCrisis 23 June 2009 at 1:38 pm

    For details of exported goods, read my article.

    https://thaicrisis.wordpress.com/2008/12/08/chart-exports-by-products-per-quarter-from-2001-to-2008/

    I’m going to update it.

  6. 6 fall 23 June 2009 at 7:17 pm

    Oops, did I said that? Too much alcohol, amend to read.

    Let see if the golden boy would start raising tariff on import, just like what the US did to fix trade deficit before the Great Depression…

    But yes, if Thailand enter trade deficit. We are in deep shit.


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Thailand Crisis

Coup, Economic slowdown, Terror In the South... The situation is worsening in Thailand. Bumpy road like often before.

But this time, it's different.

The key to understand the present turmoil is the inevitable... succession of King Bhumibol.


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