Green Shoots give indigestion to Abhisit : “recovery at least a year away…”

JANUARY

Bank of Thailand (BoT) deputy governor Atchana Waiquamdee on Wednesday voiced confidence that the country’s economy this year would not experience negative growth, despite the world economic situation, saying the central bank began to witness signs of recovery in the first quarter.

2 FEBRUARY

We hope that the second and third quarter will be an improvement on the first and we still aim for the whole year to keep growth in positive territory, or at least not in negative territory,” Abhisit said.

27 FEBRUARY

Mrs. Tarisa [Bank Of Thailand governor] views the Thai economy in the first quarter this year as being better than its performance in the last quarter of 2008, and states that she believes the economy will not be in recession because state spending and investment had begun to accelerate.

14 MARCH

Thailand’s economic recovery will be delayed and positive growth might not be seen until the final quarter of this year, later than forecast, Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva says.

30 MAY

The Thai economy began signalling recovery in April despite political unrest and long public holidays, according to the Bank of Thailand (BoT).

BoT Local Economy Division senior director Amara Sripayak said Friday that economic data released in April was better than expected.

10 JULY

The Thai economy is likely to take more than a year to fully recover, Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva said yesterday at the annual meeting of the National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB).

Voila.

The classic running path of incompetence and wishful thinking.

-stage 1 : denial : there is no recession

-quick admission but then grotesque lie (the BOT announcing recovery in january !)

-then forecasts : okay we are in deep shit, but recovery coming, Q3 will be better, or Q4. It’s coming. Sure. We promise.

-then the sophisticated propaganda machine is running full steam : the famous Green Shoots (I love this stage!).

-then admission of guilt : well… “recovery at least a year away”…

-then… the latest stage : “run Forrest, run”…

Not yet though.

Anyway : july 2009 + 1 year = july 2010. Ah… mister Abhisit that’s very different than “final quarter of this year” ! 😉 The question is : what the Prime Minister will say… in july 2010 ?

Alice is in Wonderland. And we are still inside the Rabbit Hole.

19 Responses to “Green Shoots give indigestion to Abhisit : “recovery at least a year away…””


  1. 1 Insanity 12 July 2009 at 6:05 pm

    You have a lot of people out there (worldwide) who have wishful thinking, who are not dealing with reality.

    Reality is this: Since July 2007, almost two years, the entire world has been in the process of a general breakdown crisis of the economy. There has been nothing which has halted that process—it is just a process which has started, and it’s continuing. Governments are clinging to straws, and to imagination, wild dreams, none of which are true.

    The US is a bankrupt nation on the verge of a great collapse in the economy starting with the housing sector. The collapse will take down the rest of the world as it also is hopelessly bankrupt, financially.

    What to do?
    1. Put the U.S. systems that are at fault into bankruptcy reorganization / protection; not the people.
    2. Put the banks that are bankrupt under bankruptcy protection. That way you prevent the system from falling. Then you take the measures, step by step, as Roosevelt did, to organize a recovery.
    3. Take the parts of the banks, where people’s savings open.
    4. Don’t allow the mortgages to be foreclosed. Put them under bankruptcy protection. You keep the people in their homes, under bankruptcy protection.
    5. Get rid of the filth which continues to be bailed out.
    6. Collect the good assets cancel the bad
    7. Put the entire U.S. currency, in itself, through bankruptcy reorganization. Protect the normal financial assets. Chop Wall Street’s interests.
    8. Dump the FED
    9. Dismantle the IMF
    10. No more monetarism.
    11. Convert the U.S back to what its Constitution specifies, in terms of a sovereign national banking system, then utter credit of the Federal government. No longer, does the U.S. government borrow money from banks! The U.S. government creates the money, and lends it for its own purposes! The banks will get credit from the U.S. government just as Lincoln did in the Civil War.
    12. Then use the U.S. credit system to reorganize the world by going to other countries, such as Russia, China, India, and asking them to join in creating an international credit system based on the sovereignty of sovereign nation-states.

    If we don’t act as above, the whole planet is finished —and soon. What you see in the cries from Russia about a “new financial arrangement” of China, “a new financial arrangement,” are cries of despair! They see the situation is hopeless, and they’re trying to pretend they’re going to survive. They’re not going to survive. If the U.S. goes, every part of the world will go—finished!

  2. 2 Lothar 12 July 2009 at 6:12 pm

    We are out of the recession. I mean we = Germany. Great statistic trick from Mrs Merkel.

    Yes recession is over and the world will see rainbow skys where people and animals dance in peace with a smile.

    Shit i’m not drunken but i must vomit. And the sheeples believe it – they want believe it so they don’t question it.

  3. 3 antipadshist 12 July 2009 at 9:58 pm

    TC

    The question is :
    what the Prime Minister will say… in july 2010 ?

    I think that time he won’t be PM anymore anyway, so he doesn’t care much. in fact it was already mentioned in one of newspapers that after his PM job he is considering to become a columnist or analyst in some of newspapers (I guess like his cousin Suranand).

    so, I guess that time he won’t exhibit all sort of eloquence and smart-a$$ style brilliance of all sort of criticism of … whatever next government will be. 🙂

  4. 4 ThaiCrisis 12 July 2009 at 10:48 pm

    -> Bob : I like your “platform”. But the odds that It will happen are between 0 and… 0.
    😉
    Thanks to our universal accounting system, “liabilities” of someone are “assets” of somebody else. The solution would be indeed to erase the debts (more or less), but It will wipe out a large chunck of the elite.

  5. 5 Insanity 13 July 2009 at 2:08 am

    THE FED CON
    Extracts from Richard Russell, dowtheoryletters.com, March 27 2007):

    The Fed is a private bank that keeps the U.S. forever in increasing debt.

    When the U.S. government needs money it doesn’t issue U.S. dollars backed by the full faith and credit of the U.S – it issues Treasury Bonds.

    The U.S. then sells these bonds to the Fed. The Fed buys the bonds from money simply created out of thin air (book-keeping entry). The money that the Fed creates from nowhere then goes to the U.S. The Fed holds the U.S. bonds, and the U.S. then pays interest on the very bonds that the U.S. itself issued – with great profit to the private owners of The Fed.

    The Fed, which is not even a branch of the U.S. government, nor mentioned in the Constitution of the U.S. effectively controls the U.S. money supply.

    How did the Fed get away with this? A tiny secretive group of bankers sneaked through a bill in 1913 at a time when many in Congress were absent. Those who were there and voted for the bill didn’t realize (as so often happens) what they were voting for.

    After President Wilson signed the Federal Reserve Act into law in 1913, he reportedly said, “I am a most unhappy man, I have unwittingly ruined my country…a great industrial nation is now controlled by its system of credit…the growth of the nation, therefore, and all of our activities are in the hands of a few men…”

  6. 6 Lothar 13 July 2009 at 5:37 am

    @Insanity:

    All central banks in the world are government independent and are doing the same as the Fed. It’s the basic of the current economic system.

    The idea was to have them independent because otherwise the politicans would print to much to satisfy there clients (especially before elections). It is questionable if the central bank solution is really doing it better. Nobody – at least in the past – ever stopped politicans to borrow as much money as they liked.

    Another problem is that any bank can give out 10$ credits for each 1$ they have in real money. This leads to exponential growth of new generated money and therefore the need for continuous growth of the economy.

    But it’s nice to see that i’m not the only one who came to the conclusion that the money system is the major problem in this crisis and not some home owners in Florida.

    And we could all stand united because the money system question is independent from the heated discussions about socialism and capitalism.

  7. 7 ray 13 July 2009 at 12:25 pm

    insanity

    fewer than 1% know that,. and the fed is resposible for all the boom and busts we have had all along.

  8. 8 Robert 13 July 2009 at 3:55 pm

    Have I missed the obvious for so long??
    I have always believed that most commentators on this blog and TC himself was a group of intellectuals, with a financial background and interests in analyzing something as complex as the Thai economy, by digging deep into statistics and other finical indicator.
    Have I been deceived? Has this blog become populated with socialist who will use any argument to prove that the capital system have failed?

    Show your true colours please.

  9. 9 ThaiCrisis 13 July 2009 at 4:18 pm

    Come on Robert, to attack the FED, the fractional reserve system, or the monetary system in its whole, is not really a socialist issue.

    The point is : the crisis in Thailand has also its roots in the global crisis. So I guess it’s normal and healthy if our discussions -sometimes- go beyond the thai boundaries.

  10. 10 Lothar 13 July 2009 at 6:27 pm

    Robert looked you haven’t followed the Blog continuesly.

    Yes i’m an european Red Shirt – with all my heart for more then 25 years.

    And at the moment – the horror news for you Socialism is winning on all fronts because it is better for the majority of the people. We see the fall of capitalism right now. Ask people from East Europe they will tell you the current situation looks pretty familiar to them.

  11. 11 George P Tuckeer 13 July 2009 at 7:04 pm

    Unfettered capitalism has failed. Endless growth based on limitless consumption is a sick joke in a world of finite resources. Industry self-regulation was never a serious proposition except by industry insiders and their bought-and-paid-for political allies.

    In a complex inter-related world, simple solutions, while alluring, don’t work. A rules-based, monopoly-averse system with checks and balances where progress is measured by more than just economic/consumption/production matrices is the system to aim for.

    Neither Socialism nor Capitalism are evil. Neither provides all the answers. lasting solutions cannot come from dogma.

  12. 12 E. Spitzer 13 July 2009 at 9:34 pm

    You’re Right, gotta go back to command and control economies like North Korea and Cuba.

  13. 13 fall 13 July 2009 at 10:24 pm

    Neither Socialism nor Capitalism are evil. Neither provides all the answers. lasting solutions cannot come from dogma

    Amen.

  14. 14 Lothar 14 July 2009 at 7:03 am

    @E.Spitzer:

    Yes the central organization and planning has not worked (except in Science where the Soviet Union was always “state of the art”). But this was only a part of the failed russian socialism style. There is no reason why there shouldn’t be a market driven socialism.

    The real world socialism in Sweden or Denmark is not going so bad, even if there are lots of possible improvements.

  15. 15 Robert 14 July 2009 at 7:58 am

    Socialism is the worst disaster The World have ever seen, both in environmental, human and economic terms.

    Capitalism is certainly not dead, it is merely just changing a bit. It has worked great for the past 50 years and will still be the driving force in the future. So a few 401K’s has been reduced to 201’s and unemployment is 10%. Small speed bumps, 90% are still working and the retirees will have to get a tent instead of that mobile camper home. No big deal.
    I have some friend who have been the victims of Hugo Chavez dreams. Their companies and life dreams have been confiscated for the greater good of the people. Mind you, this is mom and pop type of companies that has been nationalized, but guess what? Without maintenance the equipment is now failing and the people has gained nothing but chaos.

    NB: Yes, I has blog for a long time. I am just more of a reader than a writer.

  16. 16 Insanity 14 July 2009 at 12:05 pm

    ARE THERE ANY SIGNS OF RECOVERY?

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8000062.stm

    But how real are these signs, and how long will the recession last?

    BBC News has asked some of the world’s leading economists for their views. The article is a few months old but remains relevant – the green shoots continue to be pissed on.

  17. 17 Insanity 14 July 2009 at 1:01 pm

    END OF THE FINANCIAL CRISIS, THE GREAT LIE OF 2009.

    http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article11825.html
    Check the derivatives numbers! Goldman Sachs shall probably announce huge profits today but, in reality they are in the brown and slushy up to their necks.

    Also of note:
    U.S.UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS: HOW BAD ARE THE REAL NUMBERS?”
    http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article11934.html

    The record continuing claims number is dramatically understated. I have read elsewhere that the US unemployment figure is actually around 18.5% if measured against past calculations

  18. 18 ThaiCrisis 14 July 2009 at 1:49 pm

    For a “real” (and clear) reading of US unemployment figures, go for Mish.

    http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/07/continuing-claims-soar-by-159000-to-new.html

    http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/07/unemployment-claims-how-bad-are-real.html

    And indeed, there is nothing to enjoy : the reality is bad.

  19. 19 Insanity 14 July 2009 at 2:00 pm

    FED GETS IT WRONG, CREDIT CRISIS LOSSES RISING EVERYWHERE

    Remember when policymakers at the Fed told us in 2007 and 2008 that the credit problems were “contained” to the subprime mortgage sector? Or when then-Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson spouted the same line?

    Oops.

    We’ve already established how those guys were dead wrong about home loans. Indeed, the delinquency rate on U.S. mortgages surged to a record 9.12% in the first quarter of this year. Late payments rose in ALL categories, including prime fixed-rate loans, the absolute “cream of the crop” in the mortgage world.

    Now, it’s clear they were dead wrong about the entire credit market! Credit losses and delinquencies are rising anywhere and everywhere.

    Get a load of these figures from the American Bankers Association (ABA). In the first quarter of 2009. ALL ARE RECORD HIGHS!:

    Home equity loan delinquencies increased from 3.03% in the fourth quarter of 2008 to 3.52%.
    Home equity line of credit delinquencies rose from 1.46% to 1.89%.
    Credit card delinquencies rose from 5.52% to 6.6% (measured on a “% of dollars outstanding” basis).
    Direct auto loan delinquencies increased from 2.03% to 3.01%.
    RV loan delinquencies increased from 1.38% to 1.52%.
    Mobile home loan delinquencies increased from 2.96% to 3.70%.
    Personal loan delinquencies increased from 2.88% to 3.47%.

    What about CORPORATE credit quality? Any “green shoots” there?

    Nope:

    The default rate on junk bonds has almost quadrupled to 9.5% from 2.4% a year earlier, according to Fitch Ratings.

    A University of California economist just predicted that a whopping 20% of hotel development loans made in the U.S. may default over the next year and a half.

    Standard & Poors just said it’s planning to slash ratings on more than $235 billion worth of commercial mortgage-backed-securities. Loose underwriting, falling asset prices, slumping rents and rising vacancy rates are wreaking havoc on the entire commercial real estate sector.

    Source: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article11977.html


Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s




Thailand Crisis

Coup, Economic slowdown, Terror In the South... The situation is worsening in Thailand. Bumpy road like often before.

But this time, it's different.

The key to understand the present turmoil is the inevitable... succession of King Bhumibol.


%d bloggers like this: