Chart, credit, august : still going down for businesses

(Source Bank Of Thailand, table FI_CB_015_S3).

After the Green Shoots, the credit crunch ?“, I asked in august, regarding the figures for credit (from commercial banks in Thailand).

Rethorical question…

The trend is getting worse.

CREDITJULY092

The total outstanding credit for businesses recorded a drop of 3,64 % in july (-1,38 % in june), compared to july 2008.

As for the total and individuals, the % of growth year on year is going down too (but we are still in positive territory y-o-y at + 6,5 and +5,2 %).

CREDITJULY091

CREDITJULY093

The clowns are having fun with stock markets (look at the SET !), same trend worldwide… but on the ground businesses, AKA the real economy, AKA jobs, AKA people… are having trouble to suck the credit breast.

And for many of those companies, today, credit doesn’t mean “investment”. But rather oxygen to breath… To survive. To not die…

But they will.

As for the banks, well, even though the clowns don’t want to understand the basic principle of risks and rewards, the banks are just being rational. Now. Who could blame them ?

In a recession, it makes no sense to increase the risks, to increase capacities by lending money to companies in trouble.

The problem is : somehow it’s the “carpet bombing” principle. Some of those businesses really need money to invest and to grow… But the banks are too afraid.

Anyway my friends. We shall rejoice. The stock markets are euphoric, like teenagers going on a date. Abhisit is handsome (but less than Obama). Bernanke has a beautiful bear(d). The sky is clear. And the women are pretty. πŸ˜‰

The crisis is over. I repeat : the crisis is over.

The global downturn was effectively declared over yesterday, with the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) revealing that “clear signs of recovery are now visible” in all seven of the leading Western economies, as well as in each of the key “Bric” nations. (The Independent)

Until… very soon. πŸ˜‰

2 Responses to “Chart, credit, august : still going down for businesses”


  1. 1 Pricilla 13 September 2009 at 5:34 pm

    When Geitner, the architect of the IMF Asian fiasco was promoted to US Treasury, presumably for outstanding failure, I was concerned. When the same said idiot declared that the recession was over then I really started to worry.

    Never mind the G20 are all congratulating each other on a job well done, as if creating money out of thin air and then spending it on your failed banker mates deserves praise as some sort of economic kudos.

    Convinced, like Dent and Prechtner the depression is coming, let’s watch the stock market with interest this month. Mind you the Thai pollies will have their hands on the Thai stimulus soon so happy retirement for many here.

  2. 2 ray 14 September 2009 at 11:46 am

    actually all the agencies are correct to point out that recession is over. but what they dont tell ppl is the depression is about to begin. similar to the 1929-1931 the 2008-09 is eerily similar. markets crash than bounce back more than 50% and ppl rejoice. look further down the stock spiraled down more than 70 to 80 % for a few years. it will get very ugly. i dont agree alot with thaicrisis on many things but one thing is am very much in agreemnt with him is the “peak export, peak tourism, peak investment ” days are behind us.
    today the usa increased the tariffs on the rubber imports from china. no news channel in thailand covered this. for me this is as big as the first air raid on baghdad. this is the first shot from usa to china in this economic war. other countries will soon follow. and i believe there is more tariffs ahead because next year is election year in the usa and everyone is going to be singing the same tune ” buy made in usa”.
    thailand better watch out….we had banking crisis, next up is currency crisis. no country wants their currncy to be strong. all are in one way or another pegged to the dollar. so dollar is weak other govts step in ot make their currency weaker.


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Thailand Crisis

Coup, Economic slowdown, Terror In the South... The situation is worsening in Thailand. Bumpy road like often before.

But this time, it's different.

The key to understand the present turmoil is the inevitable... succession of King Bhumibol.


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