Chart, exports : -18,3 % in august


While today is the third anniversary of the military coup, let’s celebrate with (at last !) a real Green Shoots.

The Commerce Ministry has published the first figures for exports in august : -18,3 % compared to august 2008, for a total value of 13,28 billions USD.

That’s an improvement compared to july (12,9 billions USD) and june (12,33). To put things into perspective : the Thai Peak Exports happened in july 2008 with a total value of 17,37 billions USD.

However, imports are still deep into the hole : -32,8 % at 11,20 billions USD.

The Bank of Thailand will release the details on september 30. I will update the various charts.

3 Responses to “Chart, exports : -18,3 % in august”

  1. 1 Bob 20 September 2009 at 6:49 am

    What amazes me is that Thaialand keeps having a trade surplus month after month…after month.
    That in itself is pretty impressive, but is it healthy for the country?

  2. 2 ThaiCrisis 20 September 2009 at 1:09 pm

    We could see 2 technical reasons to explain this trade surplus.

    -agriculture, commodities
    -and oil prices

    With the BOT export classification, “agriculture” weights 11 % of total exports value. With my classification (including other commodities) it’s more like 27 %.

    (Agriculture Products + fishery+canned food, molass + sugar + pet food
    Mineral + forestry + petroleum product + rubber product + cement + pearl precious stones jewelry)

    My point : food, sugar, rubber etc… might represent the bulk of the surplus… Because for all the manufacturing sectors, a lot of materials and parts are imported.

    Second point : oil prices. Remember last year… with high oil prices, the thai trade surplus was just history… With a low energy efficiency, oil is definitely the Achilles Heel of Thailand.

    Is a trade surplus good for a country ? Yeah sure. It fuels foreign currency reserves.

    Is this trade surplus good for Thailand ? The BOT is buying USD ans US Treasuries… stupidly… to support the USD that is falling… in order to save… the thai exports.

    Vicious circle. And very short term views. Problem : many other asian and BRIC countries are doing exactly the same.

    What will they do if the USD continues to crash ? The BOT will light the fire under the bottom of Tarisa with its 120 billions USD in foreign currency reserves ?

    Anyway, don’t worry Bob : it’s recovery times ! Enjoy.

  3. 3 ray 21 September 2009 at 11:24 am


    trade surplus is great. u just have to have common sense as how to invest the surplus. as u stated oil is our weakness so we should buy oil or atleast have future contracts before the price surges ahead on weak dollar..

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Thailand Crisis

Coup, Economic slowdown, Terror In the South... The situation is worsening in Thailand. Bumpy road like often before.

But this time, it's different.

The key to understand the present turmoil is the inevitable... succession of King Bhumibol.

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