Chart, foreign reserves, and exchange rate

GOLD1

Gold 1, 2, 3 lift off ! 1042 USD/ounce last night ! Cause and effect of a crashing US Dollar…

Time to update the charts about the foreign currency reserves of the Bank Of Thailand.

Like virtually all central banks in the world, the BOT is happy (… not really) to buy USD.

Because, like virtually all countries in the world, Thailand is obsessed with the exchange rate in USD. They would do anything, even crashing their own local currency, to save the appearances and to save thai exports …

BOTRESERVES1SEPT

BOTRESERVES2SEPT

(Source BOT, table EC_XT_031)

Those trees won’t be able to grow to the sky…

We should have some real sport before the end of the year…

17 Responses to “Chart, foreign reserves, and exchange rate”


  1. 1 Marvo 7 October 2009 at 10:39 am

    We should have some real sport before the end of the year…

    Sorry TC, could you let us know what you’re thinking…?

  2. 2 Insanity 7 October 2009 at 11:14 am

    GOVERNMENT REPORTS POINT TO FISCAL DOOMSDAY
    http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article13977.html

    US leaders have full knowledge of an impending disaster … they have proof of its inevitability in ANY scenario … and they so declare in their official reports … but STILL don’t lift a finger to change course!

    3 recently released government reports now point to fiscal doomsday for America; & one of the reports, issued by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), says so explicitly.

  3. 3 ThaiCrisis 7 October 2009 at 1:21 pm

    Marvo : A market meltdown perhaps ? Nah… people are going to say that I’m a doomsayer, once again.
    😉

    More seriously : most of the data, the ones that count, are just horrible. Stock markets are under serious steroids (for many reasons, political etc.)… At one point, and even if dirty politicians and financiers do not like this idea… at one point those markets will have to adjust to reality. AKA : the ground.
    The only question is : when.

    How long the huge lala ponzi scheme and collective hallucination can last ? Voila the only and real question.

  4. 4 ray 7 October 2009 at 1:49 pm

    thai crisis

    i agree with u. when things are gonna get vad it will be really really bad and with lightning speed. when the us dollar crashes( not if) investors and speculators will withdraw money from stock markets and especially in bangkok they will not know what hit them.

    all people see is the recovery from economic crisis but no one sees the currency crisis on the horizon. the us dollar as well as the british pound is getting stuffed.

    i see thailand very worse off in 2010. we depend 70% on exports. i mean come on! htere is no way it can recover in 2 years. it is not that thai baht is expensive. it is just people around the world are not buying . period!!

    may be they should devalue the thai baht by 20% atleast to make it attractive to tourists who are getting sick of the land of smiles.

    investing in thailand is not a good idea as was stated on yr site for various reasons. just look at vietnam. i believe they are ahead of thailand while we were enjoying the red/yellow roadshows.

    the fundamentals of thailand economy sucks!!

  5. 5 Mr.? 7 October 2009 at 2:58 pm

    Gordon Brown – Elephant in the Room

    A MUST VIEW! (Are we Fuc**d)

  6. 6 loic 7 October 2009 at 5:15 pm

    I agree about many things but the boom on stocks markets and hopes for global recovery come also because big companies still enjoy big profits(better than expected) and the big amount of cash injections.the problem is that all this money do not go in the reel economy but on speculation.
    loic

  7. 7 ray 7 October 2009 at 7:22 pm

    mr.? that was gr8..funny but true

  8. 8 Pricilla 7 October 2009 at 7:35 pm

    Mr?, I am sorry but you are completely wrong and I will prove it.

    Despite in the US rising unemployment, reduced never to be replaced industry, new reset on home mortgages coming, commercial real estate crash coming, banks failing, crashing dollar, historically high government debt, the Fed printing money as fast as the presses can run, equating any of this this with the obvious economic recovery is all meaningless propaganda by racist, homophobic, misanthropist, antisemitic, anarchist, pessimistic fools who don’t understand economics (sorry couldn’t list everything due to space).

    And I know because Tim Geitner says that the recovery is even better than Bernake even says! Tim is a genius who has never been wrong.

  9. 9 Mr.? 7 October 2009 at 8:15 pm

    @Pricilla lol, well, can’t argue that! 🙂

    Maybe TC should revise the name of his Blog from ‘Thailand Crisis’ to ‘Thailand Satire’ to reflect the biting satirical observations on the state of the Thai nation & beyond?

  10. 10 Mr.? 7 October 2009 at 8:22 pm

    On the subject of Thai Satire try: http://www.notthenation.com/ 🙂

  11. 11 Samui 7 October 2009 at 8:59 pm

    Why at least the BOT will not peg the baht to the dollar?
    A 20% devaluation would be best but the baht is gaining daily on the dollar. What is the point of that policy on an export driven country? Mass suicide?

  12. 12 Marvo 7 October 2009 at 11:26 pm

    Anybody care to speculate whether the UK Pound will follow the Dollar down the toilet? There seem to be equally deft (should that read “daft”) imbeciles at the respective helms. I can see the baht getting more expensive for the yanks but possibly beyond a joke for the Brits.

  13. 13 Insanity 8 October 2009 at 1:01 am

    @Marvo

    Re: UK economy & its paper currency.

    You might want to checkout Nadeem Walayat
    http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/UserInfo-Nadeem_Walayat.html

    The UK may be further down the toilet than the US!

    If the G-7 cannot agree on anything meaningful, how the hell is the G-20 ever going to agree on anything?

    By memory the Baht was about 33 to the Pound in 1985 and 85 to the pound following the 1997 devaluation. Thailand shall join the competitive devaluation crowd if & when it feels it needs to.

  14. 14 David 8 October 2009 at 12:46 pm

    When do you think we can come back to a regular exchange rate as 1USD = 36 to 38bath?

  15. 15 ray 8 October 2009 at 6:03 pm

    david.

    that will happen when the fed reserve/congress/president obama get heir act together. thai baht is not strong but the us dollar is getting weaker by the minute. it is america’s own doing.

    the thai baht against other currencies is pretty stable, it is exceptionally strong agianst sterling pound and the greenback.

    watch out.. there is alot of buzz about iran in the past couple of weeks. maybe israel will strike first.

  16. 16 loic 8 October 2009 at 6:24 pm

    in response of david question,my opinion is never;
    I think next year china is going to reevaluate the yuan that will boost all asian currencies.
    I think the challenge for asian economies(including thailand) is a slowly transformation into more domestic economies because they cannot hope too much anymore with growing exports to usa and ue and it is not a devaluated bath that will solve all problems of thailand.

  17. 17 ray 9 October 2009 at 12:04 pm

    loic.

    i agree with what u say but u give the govt of thailand too much credit. to transform and morph from export driven economy to domestically driven we need smart people who can plan the transformation. i do not think thailand have the mental capabilitiues to do that. case and point they are still buying usa treasuries. i will bet the farm that when push comes to shove the thai govt will again resort to cheap baht rather than “creative” solutions.

    china,japan,malaysia,indonesia will look to solve the problems. but not thailand. because that involves thinking.


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Thailand Crisis

Coup, Economic slowdown, Terror In the South... The situation is worsening in Thailand. Bumpy road like often before.

But this time, it's different.

The key to understand the present turmoil is the inevitable... succession of King Bhumibol.


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