Exports in september… Recovery ? The suckers, once again, fail to look at the details

Even ThaiCrisis has been fooled ! I use the infamous word “Green Shoots” after the first publication of the total amount of exports for september. πŸ˜‰

Abhisit was proud to pronounce the “R” word. Recession ? Amid an ocean of artificial pleasures (and potent Lala drugs) during the Asean Meeting, it was more like “Recovery”. Same for the so called Commerce Minister. And of course, the stupid journalists answered “sir yes sir” (and I put Bloomberg in the same basket as Bangkok Post and Nation).

First the headline :

-exports reached 503 billions THB in september, against 448 billions in august. Year on year (compared to september 2008), it’s a decrease of 8,4 %. Far better than the -16 % recorded in august.

Source Bank Of Thailand.

But as usual, we need to look at the details…

What caused this surge in september, compared to the previous month ? The car industry ? The IT industry ? Agriculture ? Such factors would without any doubt fuel the “recovery” theory. Right ?

But what do we see instead ?

A surge of the category… “Pearl, Precious Stone and Jewelry”. πŸ˜‰ Yep ladies and gentlemen, a surge of 45 % in one month… And an increase of 55 % compared to september 2008. Talk about a wild Green Shoot ! πŸ˜‰

GOLDEXPORT

Here we go again… Exactly like what happened last february… Someone is sucking out gold from Thailand, and Thailand is eager to please.

Now ask yourself : is it healthy ? Can we like the clowns at the government talk about “recovery” ?

Does the fact of selling gold creates… any jobs ?

Attracted by high gold prices and probably because they badly need cash.. thai people are selling their gold. And then this gold is exported. Is it healthy ? Other people in the world (China)… are buying gold. Who do you think are the smartest ?

Abhisit can turn 99 times the (golden) spoon in the rice bowl and throw away some incantations (“recovery”, “recovery”) we are not out of the wood yet.

I repeat : not yet.

The recovery could come… but the facts remain stubborn : not yet.

3 Responses to “Exports in september… Recovery ? The suckers, once again, fail to look at the details”


  1. 1 ray 3 November 2009 at 10:52 am

    thaicrisis.

    out of the woods?? we are heading deeper into the woods.. we are selling gold, which has been rising in value over the past decade, for usa dollars which has been declining in value during the same period of time.
    in the last blogs we discussed about thailand being less reliant on exports and stimulate the economy domestically. yes with the above track of mind we surely can. yes we can!!

  2. 2 Bob 3 November 2009 at 12:17 pm

    Surely there is more to the $3 billion trade surplus story then just exporting private gold holdings. Thailand have been importing gold in the range from 500 million to 37 billion per month for the past 2 years.
    Are export numbers available?

    Line 92: http://www2.bot.or.th/statistics/ReportPage.aspx?reportID=54&language=eng
    Non-Monetary Gold Import (million Baht):
    September 09: 4,282.99
    6,436.58
    19,264.33
    20,608.89
    2,038.24
    16,941.36
    6,377.60
    574.10
    4,883.83
    768.53
    37,491.84
    28,060.56
    31,454.89
    32,972.23
    6,583.74
    7,530.13
    13,993.52
    16,851.62
    18,215.88
    4,248.82
    4,555.83
    4,631.01
    3,147.72
    2,328.87
    September 07: 1,221.70

  3. 3 ThaiCrisis 3 November 2009 at 12:41 pm

    Exports of gold are “mixed” with the “Jewelry, pearl…” group. But it’s easy to track abnormal moves per month (like I did).

    I never said that exports of gold explain the trade surplus. I’ve said that the trade surplus was logic because we have a real hike in exports (albeit a “fake” one, unhealthy from my point of view) and because imports are still depressed.

    Both move are not sustainable I think :
    -artificially “boosted” exports
    -and depressed imports

    because (until now) thai exports relie for a large part on imports (raw materials, parts etc.) I don’t believe that the thai economy has changed overnight… But I might be wrong.

    I’m going to look at the details about imports to see what’s wrong (fall of imports of machinery for instance or luxury goods etc.).


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Thailand Crisis

Coup, Economic slowdown, Terror In the South... The situation is worsening in Thailand. Bumpy road like often before.

But this time, it's different.

The key to understand the present turmoil is the inevitable... succession of King Bhumibol.


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