Chart, oil net imports : recovery, but at lower levels

Yes. This is a Green Shoot. And as Green Shoot Amateur and hunter, I know when I see one. πŸ˜‰

Here is my beloved indicator : oil.

Oil consumption seen through the prism of imports… more precisely net imports (imports minus exports), because Thailand produces and exports oil too.

Why oil (as the first source of energy) is an important indicator ? Because, without making bad jokes, it’s the motor of the economy. We hate, we love it, whatever, this is a fact and we have to deal with it.

The EPPO (Energy Policy and Planning Office, Ministry of Energy) has updated the figures for september (table 2.1-5, and 2.1-4).

Let’s start with imports, volume and amount.

OILSEPT20091

But as I said, let’s go deeper with net imports (we have to remove exports).

OILSEPT20092

There is a clear hike in september : 616 000 barrels per day in september. But we can see that we are clearly under the levels of 2007 and (mid) 2008. During those years, we hit several months 750 000 barrels per day.

Has Thailand increased its energy efficiency between 2007 and 2009 ? Of course not. Consumption went down because of the crisis (plural… we had many in Thailand : political crisis, then inflation crisis, then the Big Global Crisis etc.)

Same datas, but with the % of change year on year (we compare for instance september 2009 with september 2008 etc.)

OILSEPT20093

It’s even clearer… We went rock bottom last winter, during the Great Panic… and since then we start to go up. Slowly but surely (eventhough I insist, we are at lower levels than before).

With the base effect starting in november… the % y-o-y are going to increase a lot.

So shall we rejoyce ? I doubt it. Because oil (energy) is the biggest weakness of Asia.

Remember Thailand in july 2008… Not so long ago… We were on the verge of catastrophy with oil prices at all time highs… Yeah I know people have short memory…

This collective terror will come back. Later… We had it before in the West (70’s)… It will be a first for Asia…

And one thing is sure : they are not prepared for it.

6 Responses to “Chart, oil net imports : recovery, but at lower levels”


  1. 1 Bob 15 November 2009 at 7:09 am

    To be fair, we also need to see a graph for Thailand’s domestic crude production. Net import could be down party because Thailand is producing more oil now than in 2008.
    Also, many cars and heavy trucks have converted to LPG and CNG, reducing consumption of oil based products.
    Do you have the charts for natural gas?

  2. 2 ThaiCrisis 15 November 2009 at 2:56 pm

    You’re right. I always assume that the thai production is quite stable. I’m checking…

    Production went down 9 % in september (y-o-y and m-o-m too), at 137 718 barrels per day versus 151 900 (in september 2008 and august 2009).
    That’s roughly 14 000 barrels that would need to be compensated by imports at constant usage… way lower than the “hike” of net imports in september. So, the hike was indeed created by an increase of consumption.

    As for natural gas, the EPPO has the TABLE 2.4-2 : supply and demand for butane, propane and LPG. That could interest you. But unfortunatly they don’t give the details per month.
    Consumption for industry and automobile is going down (over 9 months), although use for feedstock is up (and cooking too). Overall, imports increase.

  3. 3 antipadshist 15 November 2009 at 4:15 pm

    yesterday at APEC summit in Singapore Aussie PM has proposed an idea of creating the Asia-Pacific Community, based on the model of EU. so, natural consequence of it I guess will be … creating the “unified” currency (as Euro).

    in other words, centralization and consolidation of power continues.

    meanwhile:

    Iran has reportedly minted 5mln gold coins, total worth $1.4bln – and already injected it into economy to stabilize it.

    India has purchased 200 tons of gold from IMF …

    China is also quietly buying gold (as well as ANY valuable resources – oil, metals, you name it …)

  4. 4 Pricilla 15 November 2009 at 6:37 pm

    That Aussie PM is yet to come with a good idea at home, just knows how to spend borrowed money, yet he insists on inflicting his stupidity on other countries. Sounds like more unelected bureaucracy interfering in our lives with associated more regulation and higher taxes.

    Is there much oil out in the region Thailand and Cambodia are arguing over?

  5. 5 antipadshist 15 November 2009 at 6:54 pm

    see videos of Abhisit speaking in Singapore at APEC, on subject “Are Our Present Models of Regionalism Such As APEC and ASEAN Adequate?” [aka – shouldn’t we restructure already to fit better into NWO ?], addressing the idea expressed by K. Rudd :
    (to me it seems like he is merely trying to impress everybody with his “oratorical” skills, rather than contributing anything substantial)

    Aussie PM Kevin Rudd :

    at 3:55 he starts to elaborate on his “initiative” to establish Asia-Pacific Community by 2020 (no wonder, being a loyal subject and servant of British c r o w n and thus naturally an agent of British financial empire in this part of the world)

    notice some interesting points in his speech in favor of such “Community”: “how can we ensure solving of potential confilcts …” now, that corresponds pretty well with growing Thai-Khmer tension, hey ? so, perhaps this “tension” is very coincidentally pre-arranged right between ASEAN summit and APEC summit – to sort of serve as an example / illustration of Rudd’s point here ? πŸ˜‰ the old good Hegelian formula “problem-reaction-solution”, which has worked very well for global elite so far … coz look: say, if take EU, then they have a EU parliament, and other tools / means to restrain possible tensions between its members, right? so, IF there was well established and functioning Asia-Pacific Community (ala EU) – then they would have shook the finger at Thais & Khmers and chastised them : “you’re no longer merely a separate isolated country, you’re part of Community, so, your actions affect the rest of members of the Community” – that sort of logic…

    naturally, Abhisit didn’t very much like this idea, coz look – in this current case with Cambodia, he has already dismissed ASEAN’s mediation in this matter. in other words, Thailand rather prefers to continue being able to decide on its own (or so it appears to be) …

  6. 6 ThaiCrisis 15 November 2009 at 7:23 pm

    “Hegelian formula”…. I love it. πŸ˜‰


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Thailand Crisis

Coup, Economic slowdown, Terror In the South... The situation is worsening in Thailand. Bumpy road like often before.

But this time, it's different.

The key to understand the present turmoil is the inevitable... succession of King Bhumibol.


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