BOT’s fantasies rewritten by the thai press fantasies

Consider this headline from the Nation :

The Bank of Thailand yesterday officially signalled a policy-rate hike in the second half of the year but promised to take into account the pace of economic recovery and inflation before making any move.

Then, read what was really said by the Bank Of Thailand :

He said monetary policy could return to normalcy this year if the private sector and the economy saw stable expansion. If core inflation rises above 2.3 per cent in the third or fourth quarter in the wake of higher oil and commodity prices, the central bank may consider the possibility of increasing the policy rate.

First : the current monetary policy is abnormal. 😉 We knew it. But it’s good to repeat it for the sheeps.

Second : the BOT never said It would increase rates. They just repeated what the textbooks are saying : if inflation remains low, if the economy is growing… if… if… if then the central bank “may consider” increasing rates.

Let’s put it that way, for the morons at Nation : text books and fantasies are useless.

And since people who are able to connect at least 2 neurons know that there isn’t any sustainable recovery, just several dope fixes injected to the world economy, then the situation will get worse, then any rate hike is likely to remain a fiction. A fantasy.

Now, let’s study the own fantasies of the thai Central Bank. And you’ll find out why I call them “morons”.

Consider this striking sentence :

At a press conference yesterday, BOT Assistant Governor Paiboon Kittisrikangwan said inflation would remain low this year, because the government had extended its measures to ease the cost of living until the end of the first quarter. Headline inflation, without volatile items like energy, could be 3-5 per cent, while core inflation could be 1.3-2.3 per cent.

The BOT official states that inflation will remain low… BECAUSE THE GOVERNMENT SUBSIDIZES PRICES OF SEVERAL GOODS AND SERVICES.

Breath. Five minutes. And then read again. Voila 😉

A magistral proof that those so called “officials” are totally moronic, indeed. It’s even an understatement.

If we follow their twisted logic, then inflation couldn’t exist anymore on earth (and the solar system). Just declare it illegal, and/or subsidize ALL the prices. Case closed.

Damned ! I’m wondering why Germany didn’t find this magical cure in the 1920s. Or more recently Zimbabwe. 😉 Or Venezuela.

But let’s be clear : this insanity is absolutely not an exclusivity of thai central bankers… I mean, if you look around, the FED, the BOJ, the ECB… it’s even worse. Much worse.

With such clowns driving our car… the crash against the 2010 Great Wall is likely to be bloody. And really messy.

12 Responses to “BOT’s fantasies rewritten by the thai press fantasies”


  1. 1 Bedwyr 24 January 2010 at 10:36 am

    *chortle*

    😀

    This blog just gets better and better.

    Dude, you a dude, dude. In fact you a dude just like me dude. In fact you remind me of me even more than I do, dude, and I remind me of me quite a lot

    *chortle*

    Poor Thai pooyays, can’t win for losing and can’t get it right for fecking it all up.

  2. 2 fall 24 January 2010 at 1:01 pm

    It neigh impossible to get good people who are talented, willing, able to withstand bureaucratic BS, and accept low pay to serve in any important government position.
    So they settled for the next best thing, an idiot…

  3. 3 Bob 24 January 2010 at 1:29 pm

    Are you predicting that we will have double digit inflation, not only in Thailand, but globally similar to the late ’70 and early ’80?
    When do you expect this, as early as 2010 or a few more years down the road?

  4. 4 ThaiCrisis 24 January 2010 at 3:46 pm

    I just point out that… CPI is likely to increase in Thailand because the bozos themselves admit that the game is rigged (they are the ones who have rigged it) : CPI is artificially “depressed” thanks to :
    -subsidies (what the guy is implying)
    -and of course…. prices controls (read my several pieces about this policy, people forget about such “venezuelan” or “zimbabwean” policies in “free market loving Thailand”… but this is how it works here…)

    Now… if we look at the broader picture.

    There is a “natural” bias toward inflation, in emerging economies. Because demography and stage of development.

    Compare with Japan for instance. Population is shrinking. And what developpement are we talking about ? They are already developped. In Japan, and we see it since 15 years, the “natural” bias is deflation.

    But on the other hand, like I said : China, India, Brazil…

    We should add to this picture 2 other factors :

    -the financial crisis, I mean the Great Depression, whatever how you want to call it (Debit Crisis). It has starded. The clowns try to save a little bit of time. Anyway, effects on prices (of assets) are likely to be important. This is a powerful deflation factor.

    -but… we have also the cheap oil crisis. All this talk about “speculation” is pure non sense. look at the figures… Oil consumption is going down in the west… but in emerging economies ? And what about the demand within oil producing countries ? Very few know how much oil the Middle east is using… It’s mind boogling.
    Everybody should watch this conference :

    Truely remarkable from Jeff Rubin.
    The guy is clear, speaks clearly… He’s not a doomsayer. Just a pragmatic mind.

    End of the parenthesis.

    So, to summarize : inflation of CPI will be back (and do not forget the base effect… high in 2008, low in 2009… so mechanically higher in 2010).

    Later, inflation will be back on commodities… but not sure on assets… and eventually… global inflation because of the energy problem.

    We are in deep shit. 😉

  5. 5 Pricilla 24 January 2010 at 8:30 pm

    That the Thais have no idea what is going on is hardly surprising as so many governments are setting their countries up for extended years of misery and pain due to their inept policies (but don’t fret the government will take care of their own). And these policies are in part the fault of our democratic system. Control economies also get it wrong but for different reasons.

    Namely democratic governments want to be re-elected so will never be honest with the populations wanting their various handouts )or snouts in the public trough if you prefer), in the unlikely event that they even know what is happening. So they BS that they are doing grand important things, probably making their contributors richer (er…Wall St) while the ignorant look on and inanely nod their heads as they get poorer.

    Seems deflation will be the initial problem, probably followed by inflation as all the wrong measures continue to be taken. For readers here, do your homework, a whole lot of bad stuff is coming soon, set yourself up to survive or even profit from it. I get Elliot Wave Updates and to date they have been on the money, but find what suits you. Keep hammering away at the bastards TC.

  6. 6 ThaiCrisis 24 January 2010 at 8:44 pm

    Indeed. it’s important to repeat that there is no “thai bashing” on these issues. None.

    The problems we face are endemic… worldwide. No exclusivity.

    For each thai official totally lunatic, we’ll find dozen other in Europe, US, Japan etc.

    Unfortunately.

  7. 7 Insanity 25 January 2010 at 1:28 pm

    In summary: A definite maybe from the BOT on increasing the policy rate!
    *****************************************
    Globally: I totally agree with Pricall’s & TC’s comments above.

    With every passing day, the glaring gap between the economy in which most of us live, and the fortunes of Wall Street, grows larger. The world we live in gets bleaker and meaner by the day, while the bankers claim record profits, and record bonuses. We are told, repeatedly, that the return of these profits is a sign that the economy is recovering, and that we will all benefit soon. No one believes it, not even the idiots saying it. But they say it anyway, as if daring us to disagree.

    We expect that sort of behavior from the bankers. Lloyd Blankfein of Goldman Sucks described the raping and pillaging of the economy his firm does so well, as “God’s work,” and Jamie Dimon of JP Morgan Chase openly expressed his annoyance at the “constant vilification” the bankers receive for stealing us blind.

    What we didn’t expect, or, more precisely, shouldn’t have to expect, is the sleazy and even criminal role being played in this affair by governments, governments which have sold us out, every step of the way. It had to be done, they tell us, as they launch into their litany of excuses. When we complain, they insist that their hands were tied, that they lacked the legal authority to do this or that. But somehow, those limitations only affected moves that could have protected us. When it came to saving the bankers with our money, somehow the authority—legal or not—was always found.

  8. 8 Insanity 25 January 2010 at 1:56 pm

    Extract from ‘America’s Impending Master Class Dictatorship’
    http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article16702.html

    (You can replace ‘America’ with the majority of countries.)
    ******************************
    Thanks to the endless barrage of feel-good propaganda that daily assaults the American mind, best epitomized a few months ago by the “green shoots,” everything’s-coming-up-roses propaganda touted by Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke, the citizens have no idea how disastrous the country’s fiscal, monetary and economic problems truly are. Nor do they perceive the rapidly increasing risk of a totalitarian nightmare descending upon the American Republic.

    The people no longer have elected representatives; they have elected traitors.

    Recent American events paint an ominous picture of a Master Class that is now in total control. The Master Class comprises politicians, the Wall Street money elite, the Federal Reserve, high-end government (including military) officials, government lobbyists and their paymasters, military suppliers and media oligarchs.

    When 90% of the American people vehemently rejected the $700,000,000,000.00 ($700 billion) TARP bailout plan, the Master Class put it on a fast track and approved it anyway.

    When a clear majority of the American people said no to a government takeover of Chrysler and GM, the Master Class poured billions of taxpayer dollars into those corporate sinkholes and took them over anyway.

    When the people said no to multi-trillion dollar crony bailouts for the bankers and insurers whose corruption had caused global financial mayhem, the government pledged to those elite insiders more than $13,000,000,000,000.00 ($13 trillion) of the people’s money anyway.

    When the people expressed astonishment and anger that Wall Street planned to pay itself record 2009 bonuses, in the midst of America’s worst-ever fiscal and financial crisis caused by them, Wall Street stuffed its pockets with taxpayer-supported bonus money anyway.

    When the people said no to a proposed $40,000,000,000.00 ($40 billion) bailout of AIG and its elite trading partners such as Goldman Sachs (an amount that subsequently exploded to $180,000,000,000.00+ ($180+ billion)), the Master Class went underground, covertly misappropriated taxpayer money and made the payoffs anyway.

    When Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were nationalized at enormous taxpayer expense, the government approved $6,000,000.00 individual pay packages in 2009 (150 times the average American wage) for the CEOs of both failed companies anyway.
    When a clear majority of the people said no to nationalized health care, even after being bombarded by a multi-million dollar, lie-drenched propaganda campaign designed to bamboozle them, the House and Senate passed nationalized health care bills anyway.

    When more than seven million American workers lost their jobs and were subsisting on unemployment benefits and food stamps, federal government employees, who now earn DOUBLE what private sector workers earn, were given another round of pay and benefits increases anyway.

    When private sector workers’ 401Ks and IRA retirement plans plummeted in value due to economic collapse and endemic Wall Street-orchestrated market corruption (including systemic front running, flash trading, naked short selling and other manipulations), government “defined benefit,” lifetime-cost-of-living-adjusted pension plans, despite already being underfunded by $2,000,000,000,000.00 ($2 trillion), were made richer than ever anyway.

    The long, shameful litany of events signaling the total divorce between the Master Class and the people of the United States doesn’t stop there. It goes on and on.

    The message from the American Master Class to the American people is simple and clear:

    We Defy You.

    Governments that openly defy the people are either already totalitarian or in the process of becoming so. Monetarily, the United States clearly functions as a totalitarian dictatorship already, with a Federal Reserve that operates in secrecy, creates limitless amounts of debt and currency at will, and showers trillions of dollars upon favored Master Class insiders with zero transparency or accountability whatsoever. The Federal Reserve is so shameless about its dictatorial powers that it flatly refuses to provide details about multi-trillion dollar bailouts and rescues of privileged elites, in open defiance of Congress and the people. The fact that they get away with these blatant acts of defiance demonstrates the true extent of the Master Class chokehold on America.

    If the Master Class were a benign despot and if its policies and programs actually worked, that would be one thing. But that is not the case. Rather, its programs are in a complete shambles.

  9. 9 Insanity 25 January 2010 at 2:52 pm

    THE VERGE OF GLOBAL DISINTIGRATION

    We remain on the verge of a collapse of civilization. And it is that. Some things may seem weaker, some things may seem stronger, but they’re all part of the same system. And if a significant part of the world system goes down, for example, with a blowout of what is left of the U.S. economy, the entire world blows out because globalization has created the greatest degree of interdependency among regions of the world, in all history.

  10. 10 George P Tuckeer 26 January 2010 at 9:30 pm

    Insanity, I think your screen name is well chosen 🙂

  11. 11 ThaiCrisis 27 January 2010 at 4:16 am

    Following the “deep shit”.

    Here are the latest stats for oil production, consumption per area.

    http://www.theoildrum.com/files/2010_January_Oilwatch_Monthly.pdf

    Enjoy…

    Thanks to Robert, a regular reader.

  12. 12 ray 28 January 2010 at 12:09 pm

    thaicrisis.

    i can only follow yr blog when in bkk. in samui thru tot it is censored. i agree with u that the whole thing is about to blow up ( world economy and thailand as a country as well).

    india s already seeing inflation in doubl digits( i have been talking to my friend there. oil in india is 50 rupees per litre as per 35 baht/litre in bkk.

    i may b wrong but i think u are talking about STAGFLATION. cost of livin going up( energy and food prices, medicine etc) and asset value going down(stocks,real estate etc).
    what is going on is the govts are subsidising the cost of living to keep it artificiallu low and propping up the asset prices ( thru money printing) to keep it high. the question is when ( not if) something will give.

    it will be ugly and the drop of prices in fall 2008 will seem like a walk in the park.


Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s




Thailand Crisis

Coup, Economic slowdown, Terror In the South... The situation is worsening in Thailand. Bumpy road like often before.

But this time, it's different.

The key to understand the present turmoil is the inevitable... succession of King Bhumibol.


%d bloggers like this: