Chart, oil net imports, december : going down

A few days ago, we learned that :

Oil consumption in January dropped almost 10% compared to the same period last year and a month earlier, due to consumers’ lack of confidence, according to the Department of Energy Business. (my article here).

The EPPO (Energy Policy and Planning Office, Ministry of Energy) has published data for november and december. And indeed we can see a nasty trend at the end of the year, after a “Green Shoot” in september.

As I wrote (many times) : oil, energy if you prefer, doesn’t lie. Particularly for countries like Thailand.

When you see that diesel consumption is going down, then it’s a serious red alarm. Because, the internal and external trade (from agriculture to industry) is based mainly on trucks, and sea freight.

Let’s start with imports of oil :

Next, the most important : net imports (Thailand does export oil, so we look at imports minus exports to get the real domestic demand)

In december, net imports were at 400 000 barrels per day. Look at the yellow line… It’s a low level.

[next chart, we’ll look at diesel, gasoline and LPG consumption]

3 Responses to “Chart, oil net imports, december : going down”


  1. 1 davidb98 21 February 2010 at 5:53 am

    presume oil is an indicator of the aggregate of power generation and transport of all kinds… therefore GDP

    I also assume the Burmese Generals are unhappy if their funds flow reduces (what proportion of oil comes from them?)

  2. 2 ThaiCrisis 21 February 2010 at 6:28 am

    Oil doesn’t come from Burma, but rather natural gas. To put things into perspective : total imports in december = 480 billions THB. From Myanmar = 7,2 billions THB. From Asean = 77,8. Middle East = 68,4.

    Bank Of Thailand, table EC.XT002

  3. 3 Bob 21 February 2010 at 6:56 am

    TC,

    There is a trend – an early indication if you will, but it is not as black and white as you describe.
    – Increased domestic production will naturally decrease crude oil import. PTTEP started production in the Arthit Field, which is mainly gas but also produce condensate.
    – Drawdown in inventories. Last year when oil was in contago (future prices are higher then present prices) nearly all countries were filling commercial inventories to the brink. Now, most countries are lowering their stock, including the US, which publish weekly data and are easy to follow.


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Thailand Crisis

Coup, Economic slowdown, Terror In the South... The situation is worsening in Thailand. Bumpy road like often before.

But this time, it's different.

The key to understand the present turmoil is the inevitable... succession of King Bhumibol.


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