Chart : FDI (balance of payments) until Q4 2009

I woud like to bother you a bit. You’ re waiting for news about the Red Shirts Rallye ? Let’s talk instead about foreign direct investments. 😉

Here is an update of my chart about FDI with datas for the last quarter of 2009.

(Source Bank Of Tailand, table EC_XT_012)

A quick reminder : “Foreign Direct investment reflects the lasting interest of a
non-resident of an economy in a resident entity
.”

There are 2 flows : inward (money coming into Thailand) and outward.

It’s easy to follow these flows, with the balance of payments.

Here is a document (PDF), from the Bank Of Thailand, explaining the statistics of FDI

How to read it ? On Q4, FDI reached 70 billions THB, a 18 % increase compared to Q4 2008.

Since mid 2007, there is a clear negative trend. It’s not surprising : why foreigners would invest amid such a political circus ? Military coup, bozo coup, Thaksin and the royal succession : all thoses words can be summarized : uncertainty.

And investors are afraid of uncertainty.

Q4 showed a strong push. But 2 things to remember : FDI data are always revised. And that could be a catch up effect, on dope, with the bailouts and other stimulus plans around the world (it won’t last).

So we should remain cautious.

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Thailand Crisis

Coup, Economic slowdown, Terror In the South... The situation is worsening in Thailand. Bumpy road like often before.

But this time, it's different.

The key to understand the present turmoil is the inevitable... succession of King Bhumibol.


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