Talk Comedy : why Abhisit would agree to a dissolution… in 9 months ?

Exactly like predicted, the “historic talks” between the government and the Red Shirts were inconclusive… It’s of course an understatement.

There is nothing to negociate, obviously.

But something is strange. Abhisit said he would agree to a House dissolution, but only in 9 months. Why such time frame ?

And this is non negotiable too.

Democrat Deputy Secretary-General Chamni Sakdiset, one of the government representatives attending talks with with the anti-government group, notes that a timeframe of nine months for a house dissolution proposed by the PM is non-negotiable.  (PRD)

What could change in 9 months ? Is it just a mean to gain time ? 9 months just to avoid to say “never” ? 😉

Abhisit could have said : a dissolution is possible once we have amended the charter for instance. Did he go too far by giving a time line ?

From the government/army perspective… 9 months is no better than tomorrow or next week. They don’t want fresh elections. Period. Way too risky.

So why speaking about 9 months ?

Do they think that something could happen ?

Only one thing could “transform” the 9 months in “never”, at least delay a lot the time frame : the royal succession.

Anyway, the frustration, on both side, is surely huge. It’s very difficult to see any compromise, any significant move before the Big Event.

Think about it : the political circus started at the beginning of 2006 ! Four years. And counting.

It’s hopeless.

From a tactical point of view, the government/army should give a few ministers to the opposition, in a “national unity” logic. That would be a smart move.

17 Responses to “Talk Comedy : why Abhisit would agree to a dissolution… in 9 months ?”


  1. 1 Phill 30 March 2010 at 8:29 pm

    I thought Abhisit had already explained the 9 month time frame – budget etc

  2. 2 thaichris 30 March 2010 at 8:44 pm

    It wasn’t Abhisit who broght up the 9 month at first, it was Banharn. But the 9 month make perfectly sence for the government. It allows them to oversee the next military and police reshuffle and allow them to put there men in position for at least 1 year. And it allows them to pass the next budget allowing to buy the nessesary votes in the north, north-east and central region.

  3. 3 ThaiCrisis 30 March 2010 at 9:04 pm

    Budget ?

    Well, I don’t have the same “reading”. In 9 months, we will still have the “budget” issue, the “fiscal year” issue (starts on october 1), the stimulus package, or whatever else.

    I don’t believe in any “technical” explanations. Because as I wrote, eventually 9 months will be no better than next week or next month for the army.

    Do you seriously believe they would risk another PP victory at elections ? This is the crucial issue.

    Furthermore, from a macro economy point of view, it’s highly likely that in 9 months, the world will be in a nasty double dip recession, along with another financial crisis.

    Same with budget to buy votes : what they have been doing for 15 months already ? Can we imagine that 9 more months would change anything ? I doubt it.

  4. 4 African Nomad 30 March 2010 at 10:37 pm

    A slightly different thought.

    Let’s hypothetically suppose that a fixed time-frame had been given to the Vejj government, to remain in office, in order to collect the rest of the payment owing on their initial agreeing to join the Vejj coalition.

    The coalition seems to be singing off different hymn-sheets on many issues, but, they are in unity about one thing – the time-frame.

    They are under some sort of job-completion contract, I suspect.

  5. 5 ThaiCrisis 30 March 2010 at 10:51 pm

    “Job-completion contract”, that’s nicely put.
    😉

  6. 6 satan-shwe 2 April 2010 at 5:26 am

    simple, it takes 9 month giving birth a baby and probably it take the same time to have an idea.

  7. 7 antipadshist 2 April 2010 at 2:33 pm

    TC

    I agree with African Nomad (“collect the rest of the payment”). you’re also right (“pass the next budget”)

    however I think that is still not yet the whole picture. I would add what I think is essential too, perhaps even the top priority in a short term (if compared to those already mentioned points), this is the thing I’ve heard / read from a friend which is based on recent TV business news report:

    the thing is, there are 400 bln Baht more to borrow (that same “stimulus package”, the last chunk; I was not paying much attention and may be not sure about details) and it was mentioned on TV that these money are to be distributed among the Thai banks and financial institutions. I think Abhisit even mentioned about it during “negotiations”.

    so, of course this LARGE gigantic “cake” is too yummy to miss and let it pass by you – therefore “Democrats” (and all those others in “Frankenstein coalition” as you call it) MUST make sure that they stay in power long enough for that.

    and surely Banharn, being a sly cunning guy as he is, knows that very well. and so does Chaovarat (from Bhum Jai party), who was quoted on Nation expressing support for Abhisit’s “9 months offer”.

    so, as African Nomad said – all these fellas are in great anticipation to get their cut of that “cake”.

    perhaps Red-shirts (and Pue Thai party too) are fully aware of that too. that is why probably is their timing of protests and the initial demand of “15 days” – I guess they tried (or still trying) to prevent it from happening. because for anyone with 1 cell of brains it is pretty clear that more money borrowing will only INCREASE the BURDEN on country. and who will benefit from it, the whole country (“the people”) ? NO WAY ! will benefit all the local banksters (with Korn at the top) and all those politicians.

    all the “knon tamada” (ordinary people) and “baan nork” (rurals) will get a shit, or perhaps rather more precisely merely a whiff of shit. 😀

    last weekend I had chit-chat with a friend. he told me interesting thing. he said : “here in Bangkok among chinese we say hua-hua which means something like “I give you you give me”, meaning that ALL those politicians are SAME, they just play a game: now let me win and get this project (and have money from it), and I’ll give you 10% from it, then next time (= elections ?) I will let you win and you do the same for me. so, it goes on and on like this – NO ANY CHANGE actually happens”

    that is why we can see now that all those “pink”, and “white” and “yellow” as by conductor’s stick come to “express support to Abhisit” (about his “economy reason” to refuse Parliament dissolution) – because they KNOW very well what is at stakes: nice fat slices of yummy sweet “cake” ! 😉
    sure enough – army will get their own large (if not the largest) chunk !

    so, THAT’S what is actually all about – all this BS about Abhisit’s “economy” reasoning. they simply making sure to “eat” (as said in Thai) as much as they can, while they still can.

    as I was telling all along: economical crisis is the BEST time and way to stuff the pockets !
    I was saying this ever since PAD was still occupying GH and 2 airports and “Democrats” expressing support and pressing PPP gov to resign, and then later on – hurridly BUYING MPs (40 mlns per each) to form their own gov : all this was hurriedly done and still is being done for the MAIN purpose of making sure that they pass all the legislations on burrowing as much as possible and then share the “cake”.

    P.S. sorry for too long comment. (been absent for a while – sort of catching up now 🙂 )

  8. 8 antipadshist 2 April 2010 at 2:47 pm

    as I wrote this previous comment – lo and behold, NBT channel shows LIVE (2.40 pm) Korn speaking in front of bankers and bank workers about clearing the debt and explaining / elaborating on what Abhisit said about “taking care of economy”. He was also talking about many planned mega-projects (= “tea money” 🙂 )

    Korn & all these banksters are actually the driving force of “Democrat” gov. coalition. Abhisit and all those politicians seen on the surface – are merely officials, for publicity. they dance to the tune and follow the prescribed course of actions, and say what they are told to speak (all that “economy” BS).

    there is a huge “cake sharing” under way.

    so, of course, who (among good healthy blood-sucking parasites) in sane state of mind would agree on their own free will to let this chance pass by (of gov changes) !

  9. 9 antipadshist 2 April 2010 at 4:13 pm

    here is some more details about Korn’s & Co. agenda:

    “Finance Ministry plans to accelerate the passage of key bills…
    Korn said because of growing expectations the House of Representatives would be dissolved prematurely, he would accelerate key bills…
    He was adamant the House would not be dissolved within 15 days as proposed by red-shirt protesters, because this was too short a period for his ministry [now, who is ordering the music, huh? 😉 ] to prepare a road map to mitigate economic effects…

    The finance minister said he wanted to implement key reforms, so he needed to push key bills onto the parliamentary agenda….

    the property tax bill was pulled from the Cabinet’s agenda. Korn said he was waiting for information from some government agencies… Thirty-three banks are participating in the scheme, he said… Debt restructuring for the poor will also be accelerated, Korn said… ”

    also related is TCC concerns & proposals to gov & red-shirts.

    TCC along with Federation of Thai Industries and the Thai Bankers’ Association – are major players who order the music for Abhisit to dance under. of course, BOT is one of the most influential.

    that’s why shakers and movers are busy dressing up in rainbow colored T-shirts 😀

  10. 10 George 2 April 2010 at 5:37 pm

    ……in a way, it seems like with one hand the government is seizing the Thaksin money and with the other hand passing the money out……

  11. 11 thaichris 3 April 2010 at 8:24 am

    @antipadshist

    What would be different with a government formed by Pua Thai? What would be different if the PM would be Thaksin? Look at the behaviour of the Samak and Somchai Government – as TC always point out, they did the same thing like the Abhisit team is doing today. For example the ‘public bus’ project by Buam Jai Thai: Today the ‘red’ use it as a sample for corruption in the government. But the project was originaly started and designed by the Samak government (‘red’).

    The major problem of the political landscape in Thailand is that there are no alternatives. You can choose between to similar fractions, the ‘amata – yellow’ or the ‘nouveaux riches – red’. That are two ‘right wing’ movements both with the intention to mainly fill there own pockets.

    The only way for the ‘ordenary people’ is to take the fortune into there own hands, not being represented by ‘old guard’ (and I consider all leaders of ‘yellow’ and ‘red’ including Thaksin as old guard) but choosing representatives out of there own. Unfortunately a ‘ordinary’ farmer without universisty degree can not be selected as a MP in this country. In Europe farmes are member of parliament representing themself. In Thailand, the farmers are represented by people which think they know what farmers need and want. Same for labour worker, house wifes, students and the majority of the population. True democracy will only be in place when every group within the country is allowed to represent themself. This would request a fundamental change in the political system of Thailand but either ‘red’ nor ‘yellow’ are interessted in such a change because that would mean a loose of power for both.

  12. 12 antipadshist 3 April 2010 at 9:08 pm

    ThaiChris

    no, wait just a min …

    you make an assumption that I suggest Thaksin & PT.
    I didn’t say that I propose Thaksin as PM or PT as gov – did I ?
    I merely made few points commenting on the question made by TC:
    why Abhisit would agree to a dissolution… in 9 months ?
    so, I just tried to answer this question as I see it.

    however that doesn’t change the fact that Korn & Abhisit (and all those backing & lobbing them) are hanging on to power for main reason : to stuff their own pockets as much as possible while they still can.

    Korn’s “concern” is pretty obvious.

    I don’t buy a crap Abhisit’s reasoning about “economy”. he & Korn don’t give a damn about majority of this country, who are rural folks – they rather INCREASE the burden on taxpayers for many years to come with their borrowing & “stimulus” BS. they DO NOT develop REAL domestic economy – they continue to pump money into FAKE consumer “economy” – the very reason the whole global economic crisis has started.

    one doesn’t have to be Oxford educated to understand such basics – there are sufficient internet resources (take maxkeiser blog for example) to know such OBVIOUS things.

    so, if such cosmopolitan & sophisticated fellas as Korn & Abhisit, Oxford educated, internet literate (both are active on Twitter) do not know that consumer “economy” is dead end path – then WHAT are they doing and WHY ?

    to me it is pretty clear : they are STUFFING THEIR OWN POCKETS.
    and helping to do the same for all those who propped them to power – the same old Amart (banksters, magnates, elite, army, etc)

    I bet that IF these so called “Democrats” would at least tried to do something real & substantial for PEOPLE, for COUNTRY – surely red-shirts would have calmed down and perhaps even accepted Abhisit’s gov as legitimate.

    WHY not then Abhisit even bothers to try that?

    to me it is obvious why: because he is a puppet himself, a figurehead, who merely follows the orders from those behind-the-curtain shakers & movers.

    or perhaps you would try to argue that his gov actually done anything more or less substantial for country?
    then please provide facts & examples – WHAT real they have done?
    except employing SAME populist tricks which they criticized former TRT/ PPP gov for, and yet even doing not as good job of it (otherwise peasants would have got appeased by now & stopped protests).

    so, ThaiChris, PLEASE – enough already of those “straw man” fallacies, huh ? we are adults discussing serious matters here on this blog, not some sort of hypocrite cheerleaders in Thai media & yellow Forums who keeps pretending ala “see no evil” style
    I repeat: I DO NOT speak about Thaksin or PT !
    so, better quit diverting discussions to favorite PAD “Yellow fever” (aka Thaksin-bashing) subject switching.

    we are talking about PRESENT government now – run by so called “Democrats” with Abhisit, Suthep & Korn as leaders of it.
    and the subject is : ECONOMY, which was the main reason (or rather silly excuse? ) given by Abhisit in the so called “negotiations”. and coincidentally, this blog is also mainly about Economy.

    so, talking about Abhisit’s “economy reason” (actually it is not his own reason, but of a whole bunch of Amart “lobbists”, movers and shakers & ) – I think the best this silly “economy” argument debunked on PTT blog :

    Are the red shirts hurting the economy?

    PPT doesn’t doubt that ongoing political turmoil could reduce economic growth rates. However, the loud bleating from yellow-cum-pink shirts seems somewhat histrionic.”

    if it is not enough of debunking – then BP blog has more, quoting Thinitan :

    Mr. Abhisit and his supporters are mistaken in their belief that the protesters can be worn down and pacified through a series of half-hearted social programsMr. Abhisit apparently believes that he can respond to popular grievances by including free education programs, subsidies to the elderly and other measures in his government’s fiscal stimulus launched in response to the global economic crisis…

    The government’s allies have deliberately fixated on the corruption and abuse of power during the Thaksin years because they fear that the reforms demanded by the red shirts can only be detrimental to their interests.

    however I agree with the second paragraph of your comment – yes, the CHANGE must be of the whole system.

  13. 13 antipadshist 3 April 2010 at 9:26 pm

    as for “True Democracy” – that is entirely another subject.
    personally I don’t believe in this cliche – there is NO any “True Democracy” anywhere in the world, and perhaps fair to say – never been & never will be. the whole term “Democracy” is FAKE ! and it has been ever since the Athenian democracy (since “Demos” / “citizens” there who were allowed to vote were a minority themselves, and slave owners at that). there is only “oligarchocracy” or sometimes some somewhere is attempted an “oglacracy” (mob rule)

    I think UDD uses this word “Democracy” only because of lack of better expression. but the idea is clear enough, as Thinitan defined it :

    the onus is on the prime minister to accommodate the red shirts’ demands for democratic rights and access to economic opportunities.”

    the problem with inherent flaws in the so called modern international “democracy” model adds up to the political turmoil here in Thailand. yes, military / Amart rule is not good. ’97 “People’s Constitution” was won hard way and was considered the most democratic of all Thai Constitutions. yet even it had certain points which could be exploited by clever fellas (as Thaksin). which caused a strong reaction from “old guard” and military re-written Constitution.

    which social/ political model to use surely is a big puzzle in Thailand now. so far in the world there is no any newest idea which would really be in interest of ordinary people. neither communism/ socialism nor capitalism/democracy really work.

    but I guess – let be it called whatever, be it democracy or “som-tam-ochracy” or “Thai-ocracy” – the main thing is, just make it work, so that all layers of society are content. then will be no protests & tensions.

    but somehow the “Democrats” here in Thailand are notorious for systematically ignoring grievances of majority of the country, and mostly only making stakes at well-to-do minority (urban middle class included). yet they keep talking about “unity & reconciliation” BS.

  14. 14 antipadshist 3 April 2010 at 10:22 pm

    main players are concerned :

    “3 business umbrella groups will meet Monday on red-shirt protests”

    The Thai Chamber of Commerce, the Federation of Thai Industries and the Thai Bankers Association will meet Monday to discuss measures following the occupation of commercial Rajprasong area by the red-shirt protesters.

    Pornsilp Phatcharintanakul, deputy secretary-general of the Thai Chamber of Commerce, said the business sector could not tolerate the protesters’ seizure of the commercial area.”

    hmmm… they can’t tolerate this time, huh?

    they have tolerated it from PAD though well enough back in 2006 (see BP blogging about it) and again for 6+ months in 2008. in fact tolerated so much that no ANY one of PAD has yet been jailed for illegal airport & gov occupation.

    I guess coz PAD made them silent that time. or perhaps PAD rather acted on behalf of these very same guys that time. 😉

  15. 15 thaichris 4 April 2010 at 10:26 am

    @antipadshist

    Thank you for the feedback. It was not my intention to put you into the ‘red’ corner. I just wanted to hear your opinion on the most probale alternative to the current regime. And I got the answer.

    If I get it right, we would just replace the ‘devil’ by the “beelzebueb” aka it would be more or less the same.

    That is why I think new elections at that point in time will not change anything. An alternative movement has to build up to make a real change to the country. And neither ‘yellow’ nor ‘red’ or ‘blue’ (Newin and/or the Democratic party) are able to provide that change. A complete new movement (maybe ‘shirtless’) has to arise. And I hope due to the ongoing political public discussion such a movement will be build by the young generation. But it will need a litle bit more time until it grows into a political movement and that is why we have to live some more years with the current ‘oligarchie’.

  16. 16 antipadshist 5 April 2010 at 1:28 am

    ThaiChris

    I don’t think “we” will replace (or not replace) anyone. unless “we” are aligned with some group or another.
    are we ? 😉 personally I’m not, I just observe.

    now, regarding

    replace the ‘devil’ by the “beelzebueb”
    aka it would be more or less the same

    well, the first part reminds me of more like “lesser evil” logic, very well used in the West, especially when Obama was elected over McCain in last elections. people are being duped into this fallacy trap. I think it is NOT better to choose the so called “lesser evil” – better not to chose EITHER of two, but instead choose some other option, or at least refrain from ANY choice at all of those two.

    however I am not sure this same “logic” really applicable here in Thailand, although I guess there are some similarities (well, after all, nowadays more or less all around the world things are being done in the same way, may be because world is being run by the same bunch of guys, supra national corporations & banksters).

    as for 2nd part – I think it greatly depends on the angle of view : “same” for whom ?

    here I think you are reasoning from the point of view of middle class, or shall we say, average being called “consumer” – who is rather some sort of politically inert (up to the point of being conservative and even reactionary) person, who is more or less same around the world : classless and perhaps even fair to say nation-less, in the sense that such person would easily or gladly change country & nationality to a place / conditions where his life style would be better – where he can safely and happily CONSUME more.

    so, these folks, this inert mass, the herd, who are presently rightly called sheeple in the West and here in Thailand it is a so called silent majority (although perhaps among such there are several different “sub-types” – one of which are rather “silenced” than silent) – yes, for them may be it doesn’t matter. because – hell, yeah, for them matters nothing else than their ability to continue to CONSUME. therefore I think this whole phrase “silent majority” is a deliberate FALSE PREMISE

    now, however not for all it would remain the same :

    in case if TRT/PPP type of gov returns – it would somewhat appease peasants and piss off elite (and some part of middle class to some extent, or more precisely upper middle class), and opposite, if again “Democrats” or similar Frankenstein Coalition emerges (say, BJ, Democrats, PAD’s newest party, army’s nominees – as there are some prognosis already now) – that would again piss off rurals.

    I somewhat agree with you saying :

    That is why I think new elections at that point in time will not change anything. An alternative movement has to build up to make a real change to the country.

    it is not exactly “not change anything” – it might give some relief to rurals at least in the short term. but yes, you’re right – for real change it is required some alternative movement.
    such movement could have been the speculated (after last year assassination attempt on Sondhi) “orange” movement – merging of reds & yellow. however it was dismissed later.

    with the present practice of silencing of “Silenced Majority” – I too am not sure that it could happen in near future. because it is sort of a vicious circle : change requires new conscious, educated, active, brave folks to start a movement, and yet to start it – certain change has to happen. unless it would be through some sort of dialectical process (like “change through the conflict of opposing forces” 🙂 )

    so, yes, I’m very well aware of the reality defined by you here:

    we have to live some more years with the current ‘oligarchie’

    true. unless something unexpected occurs – which often happens.

  17. 17 antipadshist 5 April 2010 at 6:39 am

    here is another evidence of Korn acting as one of the major players (movers and shakers) :

    “Democrat MPs angry over Suthep’s soft handling of reds”

    well, that’s the the true face of angry “Democrat” (as he loves” to call himself 😀 ) Korn , self admittedPAD sympathizer” who has not only condemned Emergency decree declared by PPP government back then, but also justified the PAD’s actions


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Thailand Crisis

Coup, Economic slowdown, Terror In the South... The situation is worsening in Thailand. Bumpy road like often before.

But this time, it's different.

The key to understand the present turmoil is the inevitable... succession of King Bhumibol.


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