Burma style or bluff ? Army to Reds : “Leave now or you might get hurt”

Back to basics.

Pathetic bluff of desperate and clueless officials… Or real threat, like good old Burma ?

Army spokesman Colonel Sunsern Kaewkumnerd warned that the protesters’ time to move out was “running out“.

The government will be very decisive but in the beginning of the operation there may be chaos.

If there is a crack down, innocent people might get hurt,” he said. “If we move in, we will attempt to arrest the leaders.”

“The government will be very decisive but in the beginning of the operation there may be chaos.”

The warnings echoed other calls in recent days for protesters to leave the city centre. (BBC)

[sorry folks for my long silence, but I was on vacations… in Thailand during the first crackdown].

32 Responses to “Burma style or bluff ? Army to Reds : “Leave now or you might get hurt””


  1. 1 Bodhisattva 22 April 2010 at 3:05 pm

    Welcome back TC, I was worried about you!

    So, what was it like in the democracy of Mr.Abhisit?

    PS. I´m not ready to forgive you yet for your long silence, but I might after one or two weeks if you make up for lost time and enlighten us about the situation.

  2. 2 Pricilla 22 April 2010 at 6:24 pm

    Good to see you back TC, any holiday outside Bangkok is still pleasant. Suspect the army is keen to have a go at the Reds after their previous humiliation, probably bring tanks, air-strikes and a naval bombardment just to make sure. Though perhaps not frothing at the mouth keen like they are when they know targets are few and unarmed.

    Mind you if there is a massacre can’t see this country ever settling down, as lust for revenge doesn’t dim quickly. The Reds have many options available to escalate later, including selective elite, government and army assassinations, bombings etc, a nightmare scenario that would cripple the country economically. The red movement is too big for a successful repression, currently they seem to be controlling their more militant sub-groups, negotiation is the only sensible option.

  3. 3 ThaiCrisis 22 April 2010 at 7:01 pm

    The red movement is too big for a successful repression

    That’s the key idea of course. On the paper at least. All the morons, the old generals who are dreaming of opening fire like in the 70s and in the 90s are hyperbolic fools.

    However, and that’s the trick : the old guard can’t see any other alternatives. They are designed to think that way.

    And they will do it. It’s the burmese scenario.

    Let’s pray we are wrong.

  4. 4 paperback 22 April 2010 at 9:22 pm

    Welcome bach, TC! I, too, was worried that something had happend to you. Good to hear that everything is fine. If only things in Thailand were fine. I’ really afraid to see more bloodshed, tears and pain…

  5. 5 anon 22 April 2010 at 11:13 pm

    It seems that up to now the international human rights community hasn’t yet begun to treat the Thai government as if it were Burmese government.

    Looking at the report by Human Rights Watch, says in relevant highlights as follows:

    – The UDD protest turned violent on April 7 when Arisman Pongruangrong, a leader of the UDD, led protesters from their rally site at Phan Fa Bridge to surround the Parliament building while cabinet ministers and members of Parliament (MPs) were meeting. As the riot police retreated, the protesters forced their way through the barred gate using a truck and entered the Parliament compound…. a MP from the pro-Thaksin Puea Thai Party urged the crowd on, the protesters assaulted a military police officer from Suthep’s protection team and seized his weapons (including a pistol and an M16 assault rifle)

    – Human Rights Watch noted that under orders from Prime Minister Abhisit, soldiers and police initially showed great restraint in the face of provocations by protestors. Both the raid on the Parliament compound on April 7 and the confrontation at the Thaicom satellite station on April 9 seemed calculated to bring a violent response by the security forces.

    – When the protesters tried to storm the compound, they were stopped with water cannons. The protesters threw rocks and bricks at the soldiers. Soldiers used batons and shields, teargas, and rubber bullets to disperse the protesters. Video footage and still photos showed some soldiers firing M16 and TAR21 assault rifles in the air with live ammunition throughout that afternoon. Human Rights Watch has obtained photos showing that magazines of those assault rifles were loaded with the live ammunition (green-tipped 5.56-mm ball M855 ammunition). Teargas canisters were thrown from a military helicopter at the protesters, risking death and serious injuries among protestors from the falling canisters.

    – The situation on April 10 became more violent after nightfall as both sides engaged in gunfights. The protesters regrouped and fought back with metal pipes and sharpened bamboo sticks. Some of them hurled petrol bombs at the soldiers, while others attacked the soldiers with improvised explosive devices. Some soldiers were filmed shooting with live ammunition directly at the protesters with M16 and TAR21 assault rifles.

    – On the night of April 10, protesters armed with M16 and AK47 assault rifles fired upon soldiers at Khok Wua Intersection on Rajdamnoen Road. Some of them fired M79 grenades and threw M67 hand grenades at the soldiers. Video footage showed that these gunmen operated with a high degree of skill and coordination. Some of their attacks appeared to be aimed specifically at killing and maiming commanding officers of the army units involved in crowd dispersal operations.

    – Witnesses told Human Rights Watch that some UDD protesters stopped ambulances on their way to hospitals. They dragged injured soldiers out of the ambulances and beat them.

    – In light of increasing casualties on both sides, the government announced around 9 p.m. that crowd dispersal operations would be ceased. In addition to the deaths and injuries, the UDD claims that many protesters have gone missing since the clash on April 10.

    – UDD leader Nathawut publicly urged protesters to loot and destroy high-end shopping malls in that area. While under pressure from the military to clear the area, Abhisit ordered the government not to attempt to disperse the UDD protesters at Ratchaprasong intersection for fear of heavy casualties and damages.

    – “Prime Minister Abhisit’s announcement that he will investigate the conduct of the security forces is unprecedented, but he needs to show the will and ability to follow through,” said Adams. “At the same time, regardless of their stated grievances, those in the UDD responsible for crimes must be brought to justice. The UDD’s leaders should understand that when they use violence, they cannot claim to be a peaceful movement.”

    – Human Rights Watch expressed concern over the broad-based immunity provision in the Emergency Decree on Public Administration in a State of Emergency (Emergency Decree), originally declared by the Thaksin government….. ection 17 of the Emergency Decree breaches Thailand’s international obligations, including those under the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights, to investigate all such violations regardless of circumstances, and hold perpetrators to account.

    – Some UDD leaders and protesters have reacted aggressively towards Thai reporters who criticized their protest or exposed their acts of violence and abuses. On April 11, reporters were pressured to leave the protest site at Phan Fa Bridge. On the same day, mobile broadcast vans of Modern Nine TV and TPBS TV were seized by red-shirted protesters at the Thaicome satellite office in Pathumthani province. The UDD protesters have targeted the government’s NBT TV for protests, including by attacking the NBT TV headquarters in Bangkok and its provincial offices with M79 grenades. UDD protesters attacked the headquarters of Channel 5 TV in Bangkok with M67 hand grenades.

    – “The government undermines its claims to be democratic when it engages in such widespread censorship of political views,” said Adams. “Both journalists and media freedom in Thailand have been at risk from the political conflict.”

    source:
    http://www.hrw.org/en/news/2010/04/12/thailand-end-political-violence-bring-offenders-justice

    Amnesty International also doesn’t seemed that much alarmed with the situation. Some highlights from its report:

    – Amnesty International welcomes the Thai government’s pledge to investigate promptly, effectively, and impartially the recent violence, and urges it to provide accountability for any violations by security forces as well as abuses by violent protesters.

    – The military used lethal force in the operations, while some individuals among the protesters also used guns and grenades, as well as improvised weapons.

    – Amnesty International recognises the Thai government’s obligation to protect the lives and well-being of all people, including by exercising due diligence to prevent attacks by non-state actors.

    – Amnesty International also pointed out that the right to freedom of assembly protects only peaceful assembly, and that those who engage in human rights abuses may be subject to accountability for their actions. Opposition political leaders,including former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, an ally of the UDD—should publicly commit to ending human rights abuses, and to specifically ask their supporters to refrain from further violent attacks on political opponents.

    – Thai security forces must adhere to international principles on crowd dispersal and the use of force.

    source:
    http://www.amnesty.org.au/news/comments/22893/

  6. 6 Insanity 23 April 2010 at 1:03 am

    Corrected comment

    And here’s the link to the full New York Times 31 March, 2010 Thomas Fuller article referred to in the above Market Oracle article: Uprisings Against the New World Order: Thailand, Kyrgyzstan, and Revolution

    Thai Protesters Shed Culture of Restraint
    http://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/01/world/asia/01thai.html?pagewanted=1&sq&st=nyt&scp=40

  7. 7 ThaiCrisis 23 April 2010 at 1:09 am

    I didn’t say that it was Burma style… I wrote that it could turn Burma style…

  8. 8 Mr and Mrs Discobolus 23 April 2010 at 1:57 am

    THAILAND IN DENIAL

    http://www.thedailynewsegypt.com/article.aspx?ArticleID=29297

    Thailand’s political and social fabric is fraying. Indeed, the country’s future looks as shaky as it has never been……..

  9. 9 ThaiCrisis 23 April 2010 at 2:07 am

    THAILAND IN DENIAL

    A very good piece. I fully agree.

  10. 10 antipadshist 23 April 2010 at 2:13 am

    title of the featured article on Bkk Post website is quite revealing:

    Financial district attacked

    so, when red-shirts said they’ll rally at Silom, very sqiftly army & police were deployed to ensure it doesn’t happen & “business as usual” is guaranteed (for Bkk Bank & CP group especially)

    then so called “no color” / “multicolor” started their showdown there, as if by coincidence (although before army secured the area – “multicolor” didn’t bother much).

    and today it was a major showdown, with 5 bombs / grenades, etc.
    many are injured, 3 dead. and Bangkok Post carefully chooses the title : “Financial district attacked”

    in other words, its like the unspeakable sacrilege, a blasphemy, or attack at some f**g “sanctum sanctorum“, no less.

    surely swiftest action will follow to “protect” this revered by elite (and especially by banksters) area from “terrorists” !

  11. 11 ThaiCrisis 23 April 2010 at 2:23 am

    Yes.

    I was shocked to hear Abhisit talking about “terrorists”, after the first crackdown.

    When a government starts to speak about “terrorists”, then you know that… everything is possible.

  12. 12 InPhuket 23 April 2010 at 8:28 am

    I’m sure this won’t help either:

    “Decision on PAD case again deferred

    The prosecution has again deferred its decision whether to indict nine leaders of the People’s Alliance for Democracy (PAD) in connection with the 193-day seizure of Government House in 2008.

    Kaiyasit Pitsawongprakarn, director-general of the Department of Criminal Litigation of the Office of the Attorney General, said the prosecutors handling the case had not received the additional investigation reports from police requested by the suspects.

    The nine PAD leaders, who are charged with illegal assembly and inciting unrest, are: Maj-Gen Chamlong Srimuang, Sondhi Limthongkul, Pibhop Dhongchai, Somsak Kosaisuk, Somkiat Pongpaiboon, Suriyasai Katasila, Chaiwat Sinsuwong, Amorn Amornratananond and Therdphum Jaidee.

    The prosecution has now set June 16 for a decision in the case.”

    From:
    http://www.bangkokpost.com/breakingnews/175447/decision-on-pad-case-deferred

  13. 13 African Nomad 23 April 2010 at 8:33 am

    The codename for multi-colour shirts is M&M’s.

    It seems that the Abhisit Military Junta and old establishment may have underestimated the resolve of the red shirt movement, representing the aspirations and frustrations of the common man.

    With the command and control structure focused on defending the elite in Bangkok, the remainder of the country seems to be on the verge of total upheaval. The extent to which this emerges in the coming days will depend on the actions taken against their movement in Bangkok.

    To say that a civil war began on 10 April 2010, could perhaps prove, in hindsight, to be accurate. This became the trigger point for a total paradigm change in the Thai political and social fabric.

    The head of the leviathan that has been behind many societal corrections over the years has begun to show herself, it seems. Splits within the ultra-elite structures seem to be emerging.

    Could these be the last days of an old paradigm, making way for the new?

    The final elite rush for the airports will provide evidence of the final phase of paradigm change. Time will tell.

  14. 14 koko 23 April 2010 at 10:12 am

    so the politically-motivated bomb blasts in city centre causing several deaths and injuries should not be called an act of terrorism carried out by terrorists?

  15. 15 InPhuket 23 April 2010 at 10:14 am

    TC, I need your infinite wisdom to help me understand something as well.
    WTF is going on with the Thai Baht/ Dollar?
    The Dollar has been gaining strength against the Euro as of late (currently at $1.32), however the Thai Baht, even with LOS going down in flames remains stagnant. Why? I remember when the yellow birds took over SoYouWannaPooOnMe Airport the Baht sank. I know its controlled, but still?
    Thanks for your insights.

  16. 16 E. Spitzer 23 April 2010 at 10:28 am

    Welcome back, hope you had a good vacation.

    I expect the Army to make a move any day now, I would hope they follow a process of escalation. In which they shut off water and electricity to the area, blast loud music, toss in tear grenades — and just keep that up for a day or two — try and drive out some of the protesters especially those with children

    But I doubt they will do that, I think they’ll just march on it, and this weekend is as good a time as any.

    Reds will be driven out of Bangkok, only to return as saboteurs. Northeast will also see its share of chaos. Giving the government the perfect rationale for not have elections any time soon.

    A great victory for the Reds, they should have taken the offer to have elections in 6 months.

    Now what about the Baht ?

  17. 17 ThaiCrisis 23 April 2010 at 1:21 pm

    Yes the grenade attacks last night were certainly “terrorist”. But for the first crackdown it’s less obvious. Half of the killed people were shoot with “snipper” riffles.
    The army is covering up the result of the investigation about the dead of the japanese cameraman… Since then, no serious investigation, nothing. In such circumstances, talking like Abhisit did, pointing finger at “terrorists” was not a good sign.

    The french resistants during WWII were called “terrorists” by the Nazis… And just after the war… heroes. In Algeria in the 50s, the FLN militants were called “terrorists” by the french authorities, and the war was called “a peace keeping operation” (or “a police operation”). After the independance, the same people were called heroes. etc.

    My point : it’s the game. A tragic one, but still a game. History proves it, over and over again.

    So there is nothing special in Thailand.

    Eventually, it’s a semantic issue. Once you call your opponent a “terrorist” then it’s a step forward allowing you to use more violence to counter this opponent.

  18. 18 Arthurson 23 April 2010 at 1:27 pm

    Good to see you posting again. BTW, you are officially blocked by the MICT and TOT and have been for several weeks. The MICT logo comes up whenever I try to assess your blog from home. Absolutely Bangkok was blocked for awhile, too, and got themselves unblocked. I suspect that MICT will be less likely to unblock you, however, because Bangkok Dan occasionally writes nice things about Abhisit, which is something I haven’t seen you do. (:>)

    One video I saw on dailymotion.com this morning (23 April) did show a group of riot police at Silom marching on the pro-government bottle throwers, and one of them hit a protestor with his baton, knocking him down. I take back what I said earlier, that the police have done nothing. A soldier tried to stop them from advancing, but was waved out of the way. My guess is there are serious rifts between the various units of military and police in the area.

  19. 19 Lothar 23 April 2010 at 4:49 pm

    “My guess is there are serious rifts between the various units of military and police in the area.”

    Of couse there are. This is the whole problem of Aphisit. I have no doubt that when the violent crackdown starts you will see a lot of policemen shooting at the army or at least donating there guns.

    This is what freaks me out on Thaivisa.com (which turns out to be a really disgusting forum) where people just say send in the troops (green or brown). They just don’t get it. The government does not have the control over them not this government nor the one at the time when the airports where occupied.

    This is such a huge gap that i don’t really believe there will be crackdown. Even the elite can’t be so arrogant to not see the danger that comes with the crackdown solution. It can easily turn into a Marie Antoniette solution for the other side.

  20. 20 Pricilla 23 April 2010 at 6:48 pm

    This is a very difficult situation seemingly with two opposing parties not inclined to negotiate as both appear to believe they can win. Part of the problem goes back to the PAD, even though the foot-soldiers of the current establishment, the government should have gone after them and jailed all the leaders and vigorously gone after those PAD guards who did kill (ie sacrifice the pawns). At least then they would have set the precedent for what the reds could expect if they copied the those successful tactics. But they didn’t and still refuse to prosecute, as such they have no moral authority whatsoever and are seen as complete hypocrites.

    I am in two minds, I sympathize with the reds as they were screwed, however if Abbhisit stays it is the old style business as usual here and that suits my financial interests.

    Thailand is unpredictable and it could go either way, I hope reason rather than emotion prevails, and that applies to both sides. Lets hope they can hammer out a deal. I would be surprised if the army wasn’t considering yet another coup under the guise of restoring order, and of course this all started because of their last coup, I doubt this time it would be peaceful.

  21. 21 horace Peters 24 April 2010 at 5:56 am

    It is always drammatic when Monsieur TC’s Holiday becomes a de-facto Yoga Boot Camp for me, a forced meditation without outlet. No buzzes or turncoat tweet fillers or platitudes ala obsoletelybangcock.com to fill the pastoral wastelands when your blog is down.
    Like a stunning mademoiselle in demand, readers flower poetically when your presence comes back to life, never a moment too soon, always late and dangerous. What vintage!

  22. 22 Anonymous2 24 April 2010 at 9:59 am

    @Lothar:

    This is what freaks me out on Thaivisa.com (which turns out to be a really disgusting forum) where people just say send in the troops (green or brown). They just don’t get it. The government does not have the control over them not this government nor the one at the time when the airports where occupied.

    Yes, it is disgusting. A part of the reason imho, is than the expat community here has way more than its fair share of bitter redneck losers who couldn’t make it in their own country so come here to peddle their right-wing bile and vitriol.

    Thai Visa has been a basket-case for a long time, and sadly, among the good mods there, are a number of afore-mentioned redneck clowns. Give a certain kind of person a stripe on their trousers and the closet Napoleon emerges right on cue.

  23. 23 Insanity 24 April 2010 at 11:01 am

    Another excellent article by Thomas Fuller published April 23, 2010 in The New York Times

    Rebellious Mood Takes Root in Rural Thailand
    http://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/24/world/asia/24reds.html?pagewanted=1

    Farmers who say they were never interested in politics are donating large sums to the red-shirt movement.

  24. 24 BKK lawyer 24 April 2010 at 12:46 pm

    I’m using True and you’re not blocked for me.

    What about the baht/dollar?

  25. 25 fall 24 April 2010 at 7:05 pm

    Last time it was “Vietnamese sapper” and “communist”.
    This time “terrorist”.

    If Thais fail to learn from history, then perhaps they are doom to repeat it.

    @Priscilla,

    Reason will prevail. The rural mob need to be beaten, to ensure they will not come to Bangkok again. So the government and army need yellow shirt to come out. Then soldier step in to beat the red and everyone get an amnesty. Dem not dissolve and RED got their new election.
    See? All reasonable…

  26. 26 Lothar 24 April 2010 at 9:56 pm

    I smell the civial war coming now.

    Maybe someone should tell Aphisit and General Prem that the IRA never had more then a few hundert fighters and were able to withstand the highly trained british troops.

    But i gave up all hope, the Elite is willing to do it in the only way they know how to handle a real opposition.

    It’s so foolish. We are not 1976 anymore. A massacre will not stop it this time. At the end we might see a total different thailand – i hope we will see it.

  27. 27 Thaiman 25 April 2010 at 4:54 am

    Six weeks into their protest, Thailand’s anti-government movement is clashing violently with the police and soldiers. While the government refuses to back down – and the red-shirts have plenty of stamina – the bloodshed looks set to continue.

    The longer something goes on, the more you get used to it.

    When that something is a prolonged political protest in the heart of the city in which you live and work, that can be dangerous.

    Of course, I’m a journalist, so it is partly self-inflicted. But the anti-government demonstrations in Bangkok have dominated my days for six long weeks.

    Each morning, on my way to the office, I check in on the protesters’ camp, in an upmarket shopping and hotel district.

    On several evenings, on my way home, I’ve shared a train carriage with some of those same protesters.

    Ever since that bloodshed, Bangkok has been in a state of almost perpetual anxiety

    I remember one woman, who was wearing the uniform of the office worker – smart skirt, high heels and make-up – but in her open shoulder bag, a neatly folded red T-shirt revealed her true allegiance.

    That has been a striking feature of the red-shirt movement – the variety of people it has attracted.

    For months, the government and much of the media portrayed the red-shirts as simple country folk, deluded in their loyalty to Thaksin Shinawatra, the former prime minister, who had been accused of corruption.

    One newspaper cartoon depicted the demonstrators as water buffalo – a highly derogatory comparison implying rural ignorance.

    But the thing about water buffalo, as any South East Asian farmer will tell you, is that they have huge amounts of stamina.

    So it’s proved with the red-shirts.

    Die-hard support

    Take Tongsi for instance. I first met her back in mid-March, as she was preparing to make the long trek from her home in the northeast to join the Bangkok rally.

    She’s a die-hard supporter of Mr Thaksin, who was ousted in a bloodless coup in 2006.

    Tongsi has neither forgiven nor forgotten that perceived wrong.

    When she started talking to me about it, sitting on the concrete floor of the two-room house she shares with her husband, she had tears rolling down her face.

    “Thaksin was the first politician who ever cared about us,” she said.

    I lost contact with Tongsi for several weeks – weeks when the protests changed from being good-natured, boisterous affairs into something more provocative.

    In the early days, the red-shirts set up a well-organised camp site.

    Makeshift hair salons have been set up in the red-shirts’ camp
    There was free food, portable toilets, massage stations and a large stage from which protest leaders launched fiery tirades against the government, interspersed with folk music played at incredibly high volume.

    The demand for fresh elections has remained the same, as have the logistics, but three weeks ago, the protestors moved their main camp from the historic old part of Bangkok to an area known for its expensive shops and five-star hotels.

    And the rolling rallies took on a more confrontational tone. On Saturday 10 April they came to a head.

    Soldiers and riot police moved in to disperse the protesters by force. The operation degenerated into running street battles.

    Mysterious black-clad gunmen appeared on the side of the protesters and the army was forced to retreat.

    Twenty five people lost their lives, including Hiro Muramoto, a cameraman with the Reuters news agency.

    We were filming in the same place as Hiro in the late afternoon and had been chatting with him during one of the lulls in the fluctuating confrontation. Three hours later he was shot dead.

    Live ammunition

    Ever since that bloodshed, Bangkok has been in a state of almost perpetual anxiety.

    Troops were bought back onto the streets with orders to use live ammunition if necessary to stop the red-shirts advancing on the capital’s financial district.

    Rumours have been circulating for days that another security crackdown could be imminent.

    Where was Tongsi, I wondered. Had she gone back to the safety of her rural home? No, of course she hadn’t.

    Tongsi and her husband are ensconced on a pavement under a tented awning in the heart of the red-shirt’s encampment.

    They were caught up in the violence two weeks ago, but only suffered the effects of tear gas.

    The red-shirts plan to stand their ground until their demands are met
    “I can’t believe the government is still refusing our demands,” she told me. “I never thought it would take this long.”

    “After the violence, was it still worth it?” I asked her.

    “If it means we get democracy, yes,” she said firmly.

    It was only later that I realised Tongsi hadn’t mentioned Thaksin Shinawatra at all.

    Events seem to have rendered her hero, if not irrelevant, than at least a peripheral figure.

    The anti-government red-shirt movement has evolved.

    The water buffalo are more politically aware – and more in tune with their working class urban comrades – than many had given them credit for.

    This has gone way beyond one man.

    This has become a bitter battle between the forces of the established status quo and a movement for social reform.

    However this current chapter ends, it won’t be the end of the story. And that’s just something I have to get used to.

    How to listen to: From Our Own Correspondent

    BBC Radio 4: Saturdays, 1130. Second weekly edition on Thursdays, 1100 (some weeks only)

    BBC World Service: See programme schedules

    Download the podcast
    Listen on iPlayer
    Story by story at the programme website

  28. 28 ThaiCrisis 25 April 2010 at 5:09 am

    Yoga Boot Camp ?

    That’s a nice one !
    😉

  29. 29 ThaiCrisis 25 April 2010 at 1:53 pm

    A few readers asked my view about the THB-USD exchange rate.

    (https://thaicrisis.wordpress.com/?attachment_id=7606)

    2 opposite forces are at work around the thai currency :

    -1- the fall of the USD / the rise of Asia as a growth powerhouse
    Many “US centric” readers seem to have problem to grasp the scale of the damages done to the US dollar and the US economy since several years.

    Rigth now, the world is laughing at Greece (and I’m too, very hard) but let’s not forget that Greece is NOTHING compared to the pathetic state of the US economy. However, the US are better, much better at the “pretend and extend” game. For that matter, the election of Obama was a real “coup de maitre”. Pure genius. But it won’t change the outcome.
    Like in a balance, Asia is poised to grow, leading mechanically to an increase of asian currencies, relative to the USD.
    Thailand is within the asian bloc, therefore its currency is poised to increase.

    -2- but Thailand suffers from a major political problem. Actually several. And Thailand in 2010 is at a very dangerous turn : the royal succession. It’s a huge liability. And since 2006 we see the first effects of this inevitable issue : coup, politicial struggle. I have said it a thousand times : the idea of the King’s death is awakening the factions. And the factions are fighting for power. For a piece of the cake.

    Add to this, a very important social event : the poor start to understand that they have been screwed over and over. It can’t last much longer…
    This is of course a major risk for the -current- thai political system, and therefore for its currency.

    And it could be fast : any violent event could lead to massive and quick outflows of cash, from foreign and thai interests as well. That could break the bones of the THB very quickly.

    Voila. 1+2 = great uncertainty.

    A real Pascal’s wager.

  30. 30 horace Peters 25 April 2010 at 3:29 pm

    It is not certain that everything is uncertain. (one of Pascal’s Pensées)

  31. 31 Insanity 27 April 2010 at 12:04 am

    Thai protests see red and yellow shirts go head-to-head in Bangkok

    http://www.viewlondon.co.uk/news/thai-protests-see-red-and-yellow-shirts-go-head-t-19741442.html?

    Leaders of the yellow shirts have said they will move against the red shirts, to “protect the country”, as the authorities fail to end the protests peacefully.

    *************************
    Thai king speaks to the nation but avoids mentioning redshirts

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/apr/26/thai-king-speaks-crisis?

  32. 32 THUNDERMARE 28 April 2010 at 12:24 pm

    Ah anon, someone has written a piece of article criticizing AI and HRW specifically on that matter.
    http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/newmandala/2010/04/26/the-betrayal-of-human-rights-mandarins/


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Thailand Crisis

Coup, Economic slowdown, Terror In the South... The situation is worsening in Thailand. Bumpy road like often before.

But this time, it's different.

The key to understand the present turmoil is the inevitable... succession of King Bhumibol.


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