Thailand Crisis

Three low-cost airlines - Nok Air, One-Two-Go and Thai AirAsia - have cut and rescheduled flights in response to record-high jet fuel prices.

Effective yesterday, Nok Air cut three domestic routes - Bangkok-Chiang Rai, Bangkok-Ubon Ratchathani and Bangkok-Krabi. It is also considering reducing its 21 flights a week to Phuket.

Affected travellers are being transferred to Thai Airways International and Thai AirAsia.

The domestic route changes followed the cancellation of its international Bangkok-Bangalore and Bangkok-Hanoi flights.

“We’re losing money,” an airline representative said, who declined to confirm if losses were as high as Bt1 billion as had been reported. The reports have fuelled expectations that the airline would be shut down soon.

Meanwhile, One-Two-Go has cut the number of Bangkok-Chiang Mai and Bangkok-Phuket flights from 28 per week to 21, starting yesterday. The flight frequency to Hat Yai has also been cut by half to seven, while those to Chiang Rai and Nakhon Si Thammarat are down from seven to two flights per week. The daily flight to Surat Thani is to continue.

Thai AirAsia has cancelled the weekly flight to Xiamen, China, due to lack of passengers. (Nation)

Hum… Nok Air suffers a lot. The route Bangkok-Hanoi was opened… just last november ! And Thai Airways is not in a good position (read here and here).

An hilarious “article” in the Pattaya Daily News about so called “foreign investors” that would be “still optimistic about Pattaya“. Hilarious piece from the boiler room, with plenty of real estate (”prestigious” of course).

The paper has one ultimate weapon : the Russians. The invasion of Russians, I should say. They are the new suckers (sorry, “investors“) for the Dump (AKA Pattaya). Rumors say that they have plenty of money, and very bad taste (but that’s okay for Pattaya, it’s even a proof of good faith). Anyway.

In 2007, 889,656 Russians visited Pattaya, up 84 per cent from 2006, making them the leading market for the resort. According to Raimon Land’s CEO, Nigel Cornick’s recent edition of the definitive property guide “Why invest…… Pattaya”, the Russians and Scandinavians have now displaced the Brits and Germans as the main property investors in Pattaya, which is particularly good news for developers in this fair city.

Let’s go on TAT’s website (Tourism Authority of Thailand). The figures from Immigration show that… 277 503 Russians arrived in Thailand in 2007 (total airports + sea + land borders), an increase of 47 % compare to 2006.

It’s the thai magic. Or Thai Applied Maths.

It’s difficult to imagine that one russian tourist would go 3,20 times in Pattaya during his stay in Thailand. Or that many of them are illegal immigrants. Albeit…

[I'm going to buy the definitive property guide "Why invest...... Pattaya" from Nigel Cornick. It seems so "definitive" that I feel I could learn something ]

What’s going on at the Tourism Authority of Thailand ?

TAT publishes every month detailed figures of tourist arrivals (by nationality and modes of transport), with a lag of 2 months.

I follow those stats since last september (look here).

The last updates, with the datas for december, were released beginning of march.

Since then… no update. Datas for january are still unavailable.

Lazyness ? Problem with Immigration services ?

We want our statistics !

Here is an update of the chart (click on the image) of “international arrivals” (datas provided by the Tourism Authority of Thailand).

From january 2006 to december 2007, per month, with the % of change year-on-year (right scale).

In december, 1 243 113 visitors arrived in Thailand (by air, land and sea), that’s a 3,3 % increase compare to december 2006.

Just another example of knee-jerk reaction and mass hysteria…

“The local tourism industry is expected to slow in first three months of the year due to the death of Her Royal Highness Princess Galyani Vadhana.

Taksin Pilivas, president of the Tourism Council of Thailand’s (TAT) business division, said many people who planned to travel between January and March would postpone their trips to mourn the death of the Princess. ” (Nation)

It’s obviously more convenient (and it could help him to gain some status for his career) to state such non sense… than to say that the economic situation of many thais is worsening and therefore their abilities to travel during the first quarter is likely to decrease…

Tourism Authority of Thailand provides statistics of international tourist arrivals.

Here is an update of our charts, with the datas until september and Q3 (the datas are for the total of arrivals, it means including by air, by land and by sea).
For both charts, you’ll see the numbers on left scale, and the % of change on right scale.

PER MONTH

PER QUARTER

COMMENTS
September posted a mere 0,7 % increase compare to september 06.

With the view per quarter, it’s a little bit better : Q3 recorded a growth of 2,69 % compare to Q3 last year.

This year is a good test : the tsunami is really behind us (by the way this is why on Q1 2006 we have a +35 % compare to Q1 2005, base effect) and the political crisis should not really deter the tourists.

My view : we have a plateau. The times of explosive growth for the tourist industry seem over.

Anyway : the full high-peak season has just started. It’s going to be a good test.

A new warning for the luxury hotel business (after this one), a new proof of a nasty “cisor effect” for 2008.

“We expect that overall occupancy rates for Bangkok’s four- and five-star hotels will only be 70 per cent in 2007 compared to 75 per cent in 2006,” said Navaphol Viriyakunkit, head of research at CB Richard Ellis Thailand.”

“Hotel prospects for 2008 looked worse because of a looming glut in the market.

The property consultant projected that more than 2,000 new four- and five-star hotel rooms would be completed in Bangkok in 2008, raising the supply by 24 per cent from 2007.

Thailand’s tourist arrivals in 2007 have been disappointing. During the first eight months of this year, 9.59 million tourists visited the kingdom, up 2.3 per cent from the same period in 2006 but well below the more than 10-per-cent increase registered in 2006. ” (Bangkok Post)

Tourism Authority of Thailand provides statistics of international tourist arrivals (total, by air, ground etc.).

After this chart (per quarter), here is a new chart, with datas updated at june 2007.

It shows the total arrivals per month, from january 2006 to june 2007, with the % of monthly change year-on-year.

How to read it ? The red line shows for instance a total of 1 031 461 arrivals in june 2007 (left axis), a decrease of 1,9% compare to june 2006 (the blue line, right axis).

On the other hand, in january 2006 we had a 48 % increase compare to january 2005. It’s the base effect, because of the tsunami.

What to think ? We had a recovery from the tsunami. But, as the blue line shows, there is not anymore a powerfull growth potential. We are on a plateau.

[if you're coming via Google... check the updated charts, here]

“The Association of Thai Travel Agents (ATTA) has warned of a sharp drop in the number of foreign tourist arrivals at Bangkok’s Suvarnabhumi Airport.

It says the number of foreign tourists who arrived at Suvarnabhumi between January and August, after booking their travel through travel agencies, totalled 1.57 million, down by a whopping 15.3 per cent from the corresponding period last year.” (Nation)

Very misleading.
Here are the total figures, of arrivals by air transport, in Thailand (source TAT, Immigration). Continue reading ‘Tourism business : ATTA is right to loose its nerves’

An interesting piece in Nation.

As you know (see my chart here), tourists arrivals are increasing (slightly).

However, the “Thai Hotels Association (THA) vice president Prakit Chinamourpong said hotels in most regions were running at lower occupancy rates than in the same period last year. THA figures show that the average occupancy rate for small hotels in Bangkok last month was 70 per cent, down from 78 per cent in August 2006. For big hotels, last month’s rate was 71 per cent, down from 77 per cent last year. “

For once, I think the answer of TAT is full… of common sense. Continue reading ‘Joke of the day : Fewer tourists or… too many hotels ?’

A scary article in Nation, about hotels business in Thailand. A few quotes :

-At least four luxury hotels in Bangkok are temporarily halting construction due to the economic slowdown and a decline in the tourism industry.

-10 four- and five-star hotels are being developed by local and overseas investors in Bangkok, seven in Chiang Mai and the rest in southern Thailand.

-more than 50 hotels and resorts were scheduled to open this year.

-The 50 new properties are the biggest investment in Thailand since the Kingdom began promoting the tourism industry 40 years ago.

-In 2006, 44 hotels and resorts opened across the country. Many of these were rebuilt after a switch in ownership due to financial problems.

My comment : well no need to explain the crazyness of such situation. We are heading toward the wall at speed light.