Archive for July, 2009

Exports in june ? minus 26 %… as usual

EXPORTJUNE2009

Thailand’s export value in June stood at US$12.3 billion, down 25.9 per cent year on year, according to the Commerce Ministry. The import value also dropped 29.3 per cent year on year to US$11.398 billion.

During the first six months of this year, Thailand’s export value declined 23.5 per cent year on year to US$68.2 billion, while the import value fell 35.4 per cent year on year to US$57.21 billion.

Last year Thailand’s export value grew 15.6 per cent to US$178 billion, while the import value rose 27.6 per cent to US$179 billion.

In June, the trade surplus was valued at US $937 million. (Nation)

Month after month… the dark trend is still there. No Green Shoots, whatsoever. No light. No recovery. No false enthusiasm… Just the harsh reality of a stubborn market that is not willing to follow the lies and the fantasies of our politicians.

Peak Exports for Thailand happened exactly one year ago… july 2008. Time goes fast, right ? ๐Ÿ˜‰

17,37 billions USD versus 12,33 billions USD in june 2009.

As usual, the Bank Of Thailand will publish the details at the end of the month. Stay tuned.

Green Shoots versus hard data : Amata land sales collapse by 74%

Land sales of Amata Corporation Plc, the country’s biggest industrial estate developer, dropped almost 74% year-on-year [during the first semester] to about 50 rai in the first half, says director Viboon Kromadit. (Bangkok Post)

Voila. The reality versus the fantasy. The hard data versus the Green Shoots.

Why Amata is important ? Because this large company is located at the beginning of the “added value chain”.

The sales of industrial land of yesterday are the growth, the investments and the jobs of tomorrow.

For that matter, it’s a leading indicator.

The Japanese are the biggest investors in Amata’s industrial estates. […]

The company currently more than 10,000 rai of land for sale in Thailand.

“Before the economic crisis, our intention was to sell 2,000 rai per year so the amount should be sold in four to five years. It should have been sold out by 2011,” said Mr Viboon.

Only five to six factories were built on its land this year, compared to 102 in 2004
, a rate of almost two factories per week. […]

We shall repeat it over and over again : during a recession, it makes no sense to increase production capacities. In other word : you won’t go to your bank to ask for a loan in order to build a new factory.

And eventhough you’d be fool enough to do it… the bank won’t give you the loan (too risky).

This is a basic principle that the clowns refuse to understand, with an unrelenting fanatism. It’s scary.

The thai economy is not going to “recover” anytime soon.

Airport seizure, PAD disagrees with charges so the police is… lost

bozo

In unprededented legal tactics, the PAD suspects declined to follow the prescribed procedures of honouring their summonses for questioning.

Instead they have claimed the charges related to the two siezures of Don Mueang and Suvarnabhumi airports as unjustified and wrongful. By refusing to acknowledge the charges filed by police, they have deviated from a normal proceedings applicable to all suspects.

And in the counter move, they filed a petition disputing the police justification to classify the seizures of two Bangkok airports as an act of international terrorism.

Since the PAD’s defence team raised objection to honouring the summonses, police could not proceed to complete the execution of the legal proceedings and were obligated to check relevant provisions before making a next move.

As lead investigator in charge of the case, assistant national police chief Lt General Wuth Puawes said he needed at least a few days to consult with his investigative team and the legal counsels before reacting to the defence tactics. (Nation)

Here are the keywords : “unprecedented legal tactic” and “few days“. ๐Ÿ˜‰

What is astonishing is not the way the PAD is trying to defend itself… that’s the game… it’s of course the (alleged) reaction of the police. Poor officers, the suspects just… disagree… So the police is lost ! ๐Ÿ˜‰

Drugs dealers, murderers, rapists should do the same. Imagine the scene :

-The killer : No mister officer, I… disagree. Sure I’ve killed this man, but I disagree with the charge of “first degree manslaughter “. I got you !

-The police officer : Oh my God, that’s an unprecedented legal tactics. I’m dumbfounded. I need a drink. You’re free to go. And don’t forget to close the door behind you. Thank you khrap.

Already 8 months, and the story goes at snail pace… First the police needed to investigate and find more witnesses. In january, the case was supposed to be “70 % completed“.

And what about the occupation for several weeks… of the Government House ? ! Not a word. Maybe, It was perfectly legal. ๐Ÿ˜‰ Everything is possible with a Lala legal system.

During the riots of april, the security apparatus didn’t spend a lot of time against the Red Shirts to “find witnesses” and argue about “unprecedented legal tactics”.

It’s just another proof that the system lacks credibility.

I’m wondering what our dear Prime Minister is thinking about this situation ? Afterall, Abhisit spoke a lot about the “rule of law”… You know the mantra and concepts he learned in Oxford. Very useful in Thailand…

Anyway. Like at the cinema, we shall prepare the popcorn… and wait for the next episode of this hilarious saga.

BOI, investments : number of applications crashed by 22 % during first semester

Investment projects seeking promotional privileges from the Board of Investment of Thailand (BOI) during the first six months of this year decrease by 22% from the same period of last year, according to the source from BOI.

Statistics showed 465 projects asking for investment promotion in the first six months of the year, against 596 projects last year. The total projects were worth 183 billion baht, a decrease by 7% from 197 billion baht last year.

Most of the projects are in service business and the public utility industry

Coming second was agriculture and agricultural products at 14.8 billion baht, an increase by 11% from 13.3 billion baht last year. (PRD)

It’s important to remember that we are talking about “applications”… The final figures (AKA the real investments) are likely to evolve.

I think the number of applications is much more meaningful than the total amount.

Anyway. It’s just another Green Shoots. ๐Ÿ˜‰

Green Shoots give indigestion to Abhisit : “recovery at least a year away…”

JANUARY

Bank of Thailand (BoT) deputy governor Atchana Waiquamdee on Wednesday voiced confidence that the countryโ€™s economy this year would not experience negative growth, despite the world economic situation, saying the central bank began to witness signs of recovery in the first quarter.

2 FEBRUARY

โ€œWe hope that the second and third quarter will be an improvement on the first and we still aim for the whole year to keep growth in positive territory, or at least not in negative territory,โ€ Abhisit said.

27 FEBRUARY

Mrs. Tarisa [Bank Of Thailand governor] views the Thai economy in the first quarter this year as being better than its performance in the last quarter of 2008, and states that she believes the economy will not be in recession because state spending and investment had begun to accelerate.

14 MARCH

Thailandโ€™s economic recovery will be delayed and positive growth might not be seen until the final quarter of this year, later than forecast, Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva says.

30 MAY

The Thai economy began signalling recovery in April despite political unrest and long public holidays, according to the Bank of Thailand (BoT).

BoT Local Economy Division senior director Amara Sripayak said Friday that economic data released in April was better than expected.

10 JULY

The Thai economy is likely to take more than a year to fully recover, Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva said yesterday at the annual meeting of the National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB).

Voila.

The classic running path of incompetence and wishful thinking.

-stage 1 : denial : there is no recession

-quick admission but then grotesque lie (the BOT announcing recovery in january !)

-then forecasts : okay we are in deep shit, but recovery coming, Q3 will be better, or Q4. It’s coming. Sure. We promise.

-then the sophisticated propaganda machine is running full steam : the famous Green Shoots (I love this stage!).

-then admission of guilt : well… “recovery at least a year away”…

-then… the latest stage : “run Forrest, run”…

Not yet though.

Anyway : july 2009 + 1 year = july 2010. Ah… mister Abhisit that’s very different than “final quarter of this year” ! ๐Ÿ˜‰ The question is : what the Prime Minister will say… in july 2010 ?

Alice is in Wonderland. And we are still inside the Rabbit Hole.

Chart, credit in may : how do you say “credit crunch” in thai ?

How do you say “credit crunch” in thai ? Well, you should start to learn, quick quick, leo leo, chop chop.

CREDITMAY1

Nice, huh ?

(Source Bank Of Thailand, table FI_CB_015_S3).

If you’re new on this blog, or if you want to refresh your memory, read my article… about the data for april.

Credit : the party is over, growth is decelerating

I don’t want to bother people by repeating myself ad nauseam.

But I think the charts are easy to read.

CREDITMAY2

CREDITMAY3

The game is over…

Businesses are bleeding… since several months… Another proof : the explosion of bankruptcies (read my article)… This trend is going to continue… therefore banks will be less and less willing to lend. Too risky. And it makes no sense to lend in order to increase capacities during a recession.

Therefore, in a few months (as soon as next month for businesses ?), we will see a negative growth of total credit year on year.

It’s Economy 101. It’s basic. It’s simple.

And there is nothing Abhisit and all the other clowns can do about it.

This remark applies to virtually the whole world and to all our so called “leaders”… They’re all calling, with hysterical tone in their voice, for more lendings… as a way to solve a crisis created by reckless lendings and cheap money.

It’s of course totally absurd. Even a highschooler could tell. But it’s apparently too complicated to understand for the politicians.

It’s interesting to note that the total outstanding credit to the government… has increased by 57 % in may y-o-y (compared to may 2008), at 134 billions THB. Sounds impressive ?

It’s of course totally derisory compared to credit to businesses (total = 3 768 billions) and to invididuals (total = 2 173 billions)…

In other words, the government can’t fill the holes.… And the holes are just getting bigger and bigger.

Then after, you have to factor in… the negative feedback loop dynamic… less credit will cut the life support for many other companies… will lead to more defaults, unemployment will rise, leading to more defaults, less consumption, less taxes collections, creating more imbalances.

Again, it’s astonishing to see so many people living in Laland and who still believe that everything will be fine, that the crisis is going to disappear, thanks to some magic wand or invisible hand, thanks to Buddha (Jesus, Allah etc.) like it never happened, like if it was just a bad dream…

15 minutes of fame for Korn : “Flu ? Everything is fine, gasoline usage increased during the week end”

KORN

What is the purpose of Korn ? I mean on this Earth ? Because, on Lalaplanet (located around galaxy ZE 521), the answer is obvious : to make people laugh.

There is something warholian about Korn. Something Fox-Mulder-I-Want-To-Believe.

Korn is so obsessed with Green Shots and “Feel Good Dope Fix” that he’s ready, willing and proud to make totally inane statements. He’s a willing victim of self-hallucinations.

Consider the latest :

The swine flu outbreak has yet to hit the country’s tourism sector and overall economy, according to Finance Minister Korn Chatikavanij.

“The number of commercial airline flights in the country rose by approximately 20 per cent while hotel bookings were about 15 to 20 per cent higher during the five-day holiday,” Mr Korn said on Thursday.

He said fuel usage during the holiday from Saturday to Wednesday also increased.

These indicators showed that people were not worried about the flu outbreak and it did not discourage them from travelling,
the minister said.
(Bangkok Post)

The buddy of Abhisit (he went to Oxford too) is breaking, meticulously, the barriers of ridicule.

What the hell with those stupid “indicators” (ah ah ah) about flights and gasoline consumption… during the week end ! I mean, it’s breathtaking.

Thai politicians love to throw away figures… +15 % ? Oh la la la, that’s impressive. Of course, they have no idea what they are talking about. Base, comparison point… those are annoying concepts. Better to stick to figures that the plebes can understand. +15 % !

Soon, Korn will come on TV to say that someone bought a chocolate ice cream in a 7/11 on Sukumvit during the last hour, therefore it shows that the recovery is under way and the flu crisis is over !

I mean WTF !

I remind you that Korn is the (alleged) Finance Minister…


Thailand Crisis

Coup, Economic slowdown, Terror In the South... The situation is worsening in Thailand. Bumpy road like often before.

But this time, it's different.

The key to understand the present turmoil is the inevitable... succession of King Bhumibol.