Archive for the 'Exports/Imports' Category

Chart, exports, december : strong growth from China

(source Bank Of Thailand)

They did it. The group China+HK+SK+Taiwan managed to order more from Thailand in december, compared to the “Thai Peak Exports” that is to say july 2008 : +3 % at 109,88 billions THB.

China alone went from 55,1 billions to 61,8 billions THB.

Here is the chart.

In december, thai exports reached a total of 482,16 billions THB, versus 459 billions in november, and 404,31 in december 2008.

That’s a +19,2 % growth, year on year.

The percentage is impressive, but it’s the base effect. December 2008 was the “hell hole” of the crisis.

As we can see on the following chart, we are still 10 % off from the Thai Peak Exports (july 2008). But the gap is closing quickly.

Now the view per areas/groups.

The picture is very clear : Thailand is pulled by… Asia : Asean and China…

e could even say : China alone, because part of the demand for thai good originating from Asean is directly linked to trade with China (raw materials are processed, then reprocessed, etc.).

Sustainable ? We’ll see.

Chart, exports, october : -4 % year on year… and -14 % from the Peak

Back to business (I took a few days off).

Bank Of Thailand has published data for exports in october.

Total : 495,33 billions THB, that’s lower than the previous month (503,63) and it’s -4 % compared to october 2008.

As forecasted, the Green Shoots start to… well… vanish (have they ever existed ?). The effects of the massive, ultra massive bail out and stimulus plans worldwide… start to fade away. It’s obvious in the US, in Japan, in Europe… But we are still in a X Files Episode : I Want To Believe. πŸ˜‰

From a macro economic point of view, the situation is worsening.Β  And in a few months, we will merely see those few months as an illusion… Anyway.

Now the chart per zone.

And the chart with the values compared to Thai Peak Exports (july 2008).

Exports in september… Recovery ? The suckers, once again, fail to look at the details

Even ThaiCrisis has been fooled ! I use the infamous word “Green Shoots” after the first publication of the total amount of exports for september. πŸ˜‰

Abhisit was proud to pronounce the “R” word. Recession ? Amid an ocean of artificial pleasures (and potent Lala drugs) during the Asean Meeting, it was more like “Recovery”. Same for the so called Commerce Minister. And of course, the stupid journalists answered “sir yes sir” (and I put Bloomberg in the same basket as Bangkok Post and Nation).

First the headline :

-exports reached 503 billions THB in september, against 448 billions in august. Year on year (compared to september 2008), it’s a decrease of 8,4 %. Far better than the -16 % recorded in august.

Source Bank Of Thailand.

But as usual, we need to look at the details…

What caused this surge in september, compared to the previous month ? The car industry ? The IT industry ? Agriculture ? Such factors would without any doubt fuel the “recovery” theory. Right ?

But what do we see instead ?

A surge of the category… “Pearl, Precious Stone and Jewelry”. πŸ˜‰ Yep ladies and gentlemen, a surge of 45 % in one month… And an increase of 55 % compared to september 2008. Talk about a wild Green Shoot ! πŸ˜‰

GOLDEXPORT

Here we go again… Exactly like what happened last february… Someone is sucking out gold from Thailand, and Thailand is eager to please.

Now ask yourself : is it healthy ? Can we like the clowns at the government talk about “recovery” ?

Does the fact of selling gold creates… any jobs ?

Attracted by high gold prices and probably because they badly need cash.. thai people are selling their gold. And then this gold is exported. Is it healthy ? Other people in the world (China)… are buying gold. Who do you think are the smartest ?

Abhisit can turn 99 times the (golden) spoon in the rice bowl and throw away some incantations (“recovery”, “recovery”) we are not out of the wood yet.

I repeat : not yet.

The recovery could come… but the facts remain stubborn : not yet.

Chart, exports : at last, a Green Shoot… – 8,5 % in september

At last ! A Green Shoot…

EXP2SEPT2009

And, obviously -8,5 % in september (year on year) is better than the -25 % we had in july.

The Commerce Ministry has released the first data for exports in september : 14,99 billions USD.

Imports fell 17,9 % at 12,92 billions USD.

The Bank Of Thailand will publish the details on october 31.

A classic comment (from an economist in Singapore), in line with the doxa.

When base effects kick in in November, we will probably see stronger headline numbers. Exports will continue to get better. (Forbes)

Base effect… In november last year exports in value dropped like a stone. Therefore, the % of difference with november 2009 is likely to be less “uggly”.

Exchange rate Drama : more non sense coming from so called “exporters”

The Exchange Rate Drama is unfolding. And some lala businessmen are crying like babies.

Thailand’s exports are unlikely to achieve 10% growth next year if the government leaves the baht’s appreciation unchecked, exporters warn.

“Ongoing baht strength will harm Thai shipments and weaken our competitiveness,” said Pornsil Patchrintanakul, deputy secretary-general of the Board of Trade.

Mr Pornsil was one of a group of leading executives from more than 50 trade associations who on Monday met with Veerasak Jinarat, the vice-minister for Commerce.

The baht, quoted Monday at 33.35 to the US dollar, is currently trading at a 14-month high and is up 4.4% since January.

Exporters said the baht has appreciated significantly faster against the dollar than competing currencies such as the Chinese yuan or the Vietnamese dong, hurting Thailand’s trade competitiveness. (Bangkok Post)

Who is Mister Pornsil ? A guy who has a very simple view of business : rewards and no risks.

His only ability to sell something outside Thailand is to rely -not on merit, talent, intelligence, better products, courage and why not luck-… but on cheap currency.

In the ideal and lala world of Pornsil, international trade would be someting like that :

-Hello mister foreign buyer. I sell to you 1 kilo of rice, 1 t-shirt and 1 air conditioner… let’s see total cost 200 USD… Special price for you. I will get 252453456533 millions THB thanks to the exchange rate. It’s magic. Yeah that will do. I could buy 17333 condos for my daughter, my nephew, my maid and mia noi. And maybe 6536 BMW cars. Pink color. Okay khrap ?

When the USD – which is the only currency that matters as far as exports are concerned (read my article here)- when the USD is falling… then small fry people like Pornsil start to freak out.

Not even 1 minute, Pornsil is able to think that a lower USD will lower the huge oil bill Thailand has to pay every month, and the bills for many other raw materials and parts imported. And therefore, will lower the costs of many businesses… Hence, the costs of exporters !

I mean it’s Economy 101. Minus 101 should I say. First grade school level. But obviously, it’s too complicated for Pornsil’s 2 neurons brain.

Furthermore, Pornsil is unable to understand that if his pathetic export company is selling less It’s not because another country can give a better price thanks to a better exchange rate… But instead, because DEMAND (solvent demand) HAS BEEN REDUCED… The crisis, hello ? The recession ? Oh my god… I forgot that Abhisit told us that the economic crisis was over. My mistake. One point for Pornsil. πŸ˜‰

Again, it’s way too complicated for all those clowns.

Last but no least, I would like to refresh your memory, with a (now) famous statement from Tarisa, our dear BOT governor. January 2009. Like an eternity away.

“Comparing the baht against the dollar does not represent the whole picture.”

Cheers Tarisa. You’re a winner. πŸ˜‰

Exports : the fallacy of the Green Shoots in august

The Bank Of Thailand has published the figures for thai exports in august. Let’s have a look, and see if the Green Shoots Theory is true.

-year on year (compared to august 2008), the total value (in THB) decreased by 16,78 %
[I remind my readers that it’s better to look at the figures in THB, in local currency… Because this is the money that is really coming into businesses pockets. They sell in USD… but they get THB at the end of the process]

-what about a month on month comparison ? We have a 2,46 % increase in august, compared to july (448,6 billions THB versus 437,84 billions)

I can already hear you : “Green Shoots in sight !”

You know me : I can only answer : “wait a minute… Not so fast” πŸ˜‰

Here is a comparison by country/zone, with values and % of difference…

EXPORTCOMPAREAUGUST

Half (5,95 billions) of the difference… is coming from Iran. Great. +491 % ! πŸ˜‰ C’est la fΓͺte. Champagne ! What a joke.

They probably managed to make a deal about rice. But : it’s a one time deal. In september : bye bye the almost 6 billions.

In accounting, they call that : “exceptional items” πŸ˜‰

And no, sorry to disappoint some of you, but there is no “seasonality” whatsoever… Here is the values per month, for Iran, since january 2007 ! It’s obvious : the 7 billions in august 2009 are totally abnormal.

EXPORTIRAN

(by the way, I was the first to spot anomalies in exports figures last february…)

The second half is coming of course from China. We all know the trick : massive intervention from the government, the banks are lending money like crazy (at the point of the gun)… people put this money into buildings… and stock market. Bubble 101. Not sustainable.

Australia excepted, you’ll notice that for most of the other trade partners of Thailand…. august was LOWER than july.

So Green Shoots or not ? I let you decide.

Meanwhile, sit back relax, and wait for the first figures about exports in september. The Commerce Ministry will publish those around october 20.

The Recovery Lovers are way too impatient… So impatient that they pretend to mold reality following their desires.

That’s their weakest point. πŸ˜‰

Chart, exports : -18,3 % in august

PREEXPORTAUG2009

While today is the third anniversary of the military coup, let’s celebrate with (at last !) a real Green Shoots.

The Commerce Ministry has published the first figures for exports in august : -18,3 % compared to august 2008, for a total value of 13,28 billions USD.

That’s an improvement compared to july (12,9 billions USD) and june (12,33). To put things into perspective : the Thai Peak Exports happened in july 2008 with a total value of 17,37 billions USD.

However, imports are still deep into the hole : -32,8 % at 11,20 billions USD.

The Bank of Thailand will release the details on september 30. I will update the various charts.


Thailand Crisis

Coup, Economic slowdown, Terror In the South... The situation is worsening in Thailand. Bumpy road like often before.

But this time, it's different.

The key to understand the present turmoil is the inevitable... succession of King Bhumibol.