Chart, exports, december : strong growth from China

(source Bank Of Thailand)

They did it. The group China+HK+SK+Taiwan managed to order more from Thailand in december, compared to the “Thai Peak Exports” that is to say july 2008 : +3 % at 109,88 billions THB.

China alone went from 55,1 billions to 61,8 billions THB.

Here is the chart.

In december, thai exports reached a total of 482,16 billions THB, versus 459 billions in november, and 404,31 in december 2008.

That’s a +19,2 % growth, year on year.

The percentage is impressive, but it’s the base effect. December 2008 was the “hell hole” of the crisis.

As we can see on the following chart, we are still 10 % off from the Thai Peak Exports (july 2008). But the gap is closing quickly.

Now the view per areas/groups.

The picture is very clear : Thailand is pulled by… Asia : Asean and China…

e could even say : China alone, because part of the demand for thai good originating from Asean is directly linked to trade with China (raw materials are processed, then reprocessed, etc.).

Sustainable ? We’ll see.

Chart, exports, october : -4 % year on year… and -14 % from the Peak

Back to business (I took a few days off).

Bank Of Thailand has published data for exports in october.

Total : 495,33 billions THB, that’s lower than the previous month (503,63) and it’s -4 % compared to october 2008.

As forecasted, the Green Shoots start to… well… vanish (have they ever existed ?). The effects of the massive, ultra massive bail out and stimulus plans worldwide… start to fade away. It’s obvious in the US, in Japan, in Europe… But we are still in a X Files Episode : I Want To Believe. 😉

From a macro economic point of view, the situation is worsening.  And in a few months, we will merely see those few months as an illusion… Anyway.

Now the chart per zone.

And the chart with the values compared to Thai Peak Exports (july 2008).

Exports in september… Recovery ? The suckers, once again, fail to look at the details

Even ThaiCrisis has been fooled ! I use the infamous word “Green Shoots” after the first publication of the total amount of exports for september. 😉

Abhisit was proud to pronounce the “R” word. Recession ? Amid an ocean of artificial pleasures (and potent Lala drugs) during the Asean Meeting, it was more like “Recovery”. Same for the so called Commerce Minister. And of course, the stupid journalists answered “sir yes sir” (and I put Bloomberg in the same basket as Bangkok Post and Nation).

First the headline :

-exports reached 503 billions THB in september, against 448 billions in august. Year on year (compared to september 2008), it’s a decrease of 8,4 %. Far better than the -16 % recorded in august.

Source Bank Of Thailand.

But as usual, we need to look at the details…

What caused this surge in september, compared to the previous month ? The car industry ? The IT industry ? Agriculture ? Such factors would without any doubt fuel the “recovery” theory. Right ?

But what do we see instead ?

A surge of the category… “Pearl, Precious Stone and Jewelry”. 😉 Yep ladies and gentlemen, a surge of 45 % in one month… And an increase of 55 % compared to september 2008. Talk about a wild Green Shoot ! 😉

Here we go again… Exactly like what happened last february… Someone is sucking out gold from Thailand, and Thailand is eager to please.

Now ask yourself : is it healthy ? Can we like the clowns at the government talk about “recovery” ?

Does the fact of selling gold creates… any jobs ?

Attracted by high gold prices and probably because they badly need cash.. thai people are selling their gold. And then this gold is exported. Is it healthy ? Other people in the world (China)… are buying gold. Who do you think are the smartest ?

Abhisit can turn 99 times the (golden) spoon in the rice bowl and throw away some incantations (“recovery”, “recovery”) we are not out of the wood yet.

I repeat : not yet.

The recovery could come… but the facts remain stubborn : not yet.

Chart, exports : at last, a Green Shoot… – 8,5 % in september

At last ! A Green Shoot…

And, obviously -8,5 % in september (year on year) is better than the -25 % we had in july.

The Commerce Ministry has released the first data for exports in september : 14,99 billions USD.

Imports fell 17,9 % at 12,92 billions USD.

The Bank Of Thailand will publish the details on october 31.

A classic comment (from an economist in Singapore), in line with the doxa.

When base effects kick in in November, we will probably see stronger headline numbers. Exports will continue to get better. (Forbes)

Base effect… In november last year exports in value dropped like a stone. Therefore, the % of difference with november 2009 is likely to be less “uggly”.

http://www.bangkokpost.com/business/economics/157696/exports-imports-down-in-sept

Exchange rate Drama : more non sense coming from so called “exporters”

The Exchange Rate Drama is unfolding. And some lala businessmen are crying like babies.

Thailand’s exports are unlikely to achieve 10% growth next year if the government leaves the baht’s appreciation unchecked, exporters warn.

“Ongoing baht strength will harm Thai shipments and weaken our competitiveness,” said Pornsil Patchrintanakul, deputy secretary-general of the Board of Trade.

Mr Pornsil was one of a group of leading executives from more than 50 trade associations who on Monday met with Veerasak Jinarat, the vice-minister for Commerce.

The baht, quoted Monday at 33.35 to the US dollar, is currently trading at a 14-month high and is up 4.4% since January.

Exporters said the baht has appreciated significantly faster against the dollar than competing currencies such as the Chinese yuan or the Vietnamese dong, hurting Thailand’s trade competitiveness. (Bangkok Post)

Who is Mister Pornsil ? A guy who has a very simple view of business : rewards and no risks.

His only ability to sell something outside Thailand is to rely -not on merit, talent, intelligence, better products, courage and why not luck-… but on cheap currency.

In the ideal and lala world of Pornsil, international trade would be someting like that :

-Hello mister foreign buyer. I sell to you 1 kilo of rice, 1 t-shirt and 1 air conditioner… let’s see total cost 200 USD… Special price for you. I will get 252453456533 millions THB thanks to the exchange rate. It’s magic. Yeah that will do. I could buy 17333 condos for my daughter, my nephew, my maid and mia noi. And maybe 6536 BMW cars. Pink color. Okay khrap ?

When the USD – which is the only currency that matters as far as exports are concerned (read my article here)- when the USD is falling… then small fry people like Pornsil start to freak out.

Not even 1 minute, Pornsil is able to think that a lower USD will lower the huge oil bill Thailand has to pay every month, and the bills for many other raw materials and parts imported. And therefore, will lower the costs of many businesses… Hence, the costs of exporters !

I mean it’s Economy 101. Minus 101 should I say. First grade school level. But obviously, it’s too complicated for Pornsil’s 2 neurons brain.

Furthermore, Pornsil is unable to understand that if his pathetic export company is selling less It’s not because another country can give a better price thanks to a better exchange rate… But instead, because DEMAND (solvent demand) HAS BEEN REDUCED… The crisis, hello ? The recession ? Oh my god… I forgot that Abhisit told us that the economic crisis was over. My mistake. One point for Pornsil. 😉

Again, it’s way too complicated for all those clowns.

Last but no least, I would like to refresh your memory, with a (now) famous statement from Tarisa, our dear BOT governor. January 2009. Like an eternity away.

“Comparing the baht against the dollar does not represent the whole picture.”

Cheers Tarisa. You’re a winner. 😉

Exports : the fallacy of the Green Shoots in august

The Bank Of Thailand has published the figures for thai exports in august. Let’s have a look, and see if the Green Shoots Theory is true.

-year on year (compared to august 2008), the total value (in THB) decreased by 16,78 %
[I remind my readers that it’s better to look at the figures in THB, in local currency… Because this is the money that is really coming into businesses pockets. They sell in USD… but they get THB at the end of the process]

-what about a month on month comparison ? We have a 2,46 % increase in august, compared to july (448,6 billions THB versus 437,84 billions)

I can already hear you : “Green Shoots in sight !”

You know me : I can only answer : “wait a minute… Not so fast” 😉

Here is a comparison by country/zone, with values and % of difference…

Half (5,95 billions) of the difference… is coming from Iran. Great. +491 % ! 😉 C’est la fête. Champagne ! What a joke.

They probably managed to make a deal about rice. But : it’s a one time deal. In september : bye bye the almost 6 billions.

In accounting, they call that : “exceptional items” 😉

And no, sorry to disappoint some of you, but there is no “seasonality” whatsoever… Here is the values per month, for Iran, since january 2007 ! It’s obvious : the 7 billions in august 2009 are totally abnormal.

(by the way, I was the first to spot anomalies in exports figures last february…)

The second half is coming of course from China. We all know the trick : massive intervention from the government, the banks are lending money like crazy (at the point of the gun)… people put this money into buildings… and stock market. Bubble 101. Not sustainable.

Australia excepted, you’ll notice that for most of the other trade partners of Thailand…. august was LOWER than july.

So Green Shoots or not ? I let you decide.

Meanwhile, sit back relax, and wait for the first figures about exports in september. The Commerce Ministry will publish those around october 20.

The Recovery Lovers are way too impatient… So impatient that they pretend to mold reality following their desires.

That’s their weakest point. 😉

Chart, exports : -18,3 % in august

While today is the third anniversary of the military coup, let’s celebrate with (at last !) a real Green Shoots.

The Commerce Ministry has published the first figures for exports in august : -18,3 % compared to august 2008, for a total value of 13,28 billions USD.

That’s an improvement compared to july (12,9 billions USD) and june (12,33). To put things into perspective : the Thai Peak Exports happened in july 2008 with a total value of 17,37 billions USD.

However, imports are still deep into the hole : -32,8 % at 11,20 billions USD.

The Bank of Thailand will release the details on september 30. I will update the various charts.

Chart, exports in july: per zone

Source Bank Of Thailand (table EC_XT_002).

Do we have -at last- some Green Shoots to season our salad ? Yes. Will It last ? My bet : no.

Exports reached 437,85 billions THB versus 421 billions in june. But that’s still a drop of 23,9 % compared to… july 2008 (the Peak Exports).

Let’s see the figures, compared to Peak Exports.

We are still 35 to 20 % off.

Reminder to my new readers : why do I speak about “Peak Exports” ? Because we won’t see again those values anytime soon.

And now the amounts, per zone.

I know… I don’t behave very well… China is supposed to save the world. And Thailand. By importing raw materials etc. Because as we are all supposed to know… China is booming right ? I mean : this is what CNN and Beijing are telling us !

Check the pictures and the video of this article (from the Great Blogger Mish Shedlock). Then you’ll understand the meaning of the words “wind”, “sand” and “gambling”…

It will definitely give a bad taste to your Green Shoots Salad… 😉

(Speaking about Uggly Shoots, don’t miss tomorrow… a striking chart about the foreign currency reserves of Thailand. The BOT has ignited the boosters… A spectacular and insane increase… Or how to commit suicide with a stupid smile on the face, and proud of it. Hopeless).

Exports in june ? minus 26 %… as usual

Thailand’s export value in June stood at US$12.3 billion, down 25.9 per cent year on year, according to the Commerce Ministry. The import value also dropped 29.3 per cent year on year to US$11.398 billion.

During the first six months of this year, Thailand’s export value declined 23.5 per cent year on year to US$68.2 billion, while the import value fell 35.4 per cent year on year to US$57.21 billion.

Last year Thailand’s export value grew 15.6 per cent to US$178 billion, while the import value rose 27.6 per cent to US$179 billion.

In June, the trade surplus was valued at US $937 million. (Nation)

Month after month… the dark trend is still there. No Green Shoots, whatsoever. No light. No recovery. No false enthusiasm… Just the harsh reality of a stubborn market that is not willing to follow the lies and the fantasies of our politicians.

Peak Exports for Thailand happened exactly one year ago… july 2008. Time goes fast, right ? 😉

17,37 billions USD versus 12,33 billions USD in june 2009.

As usual, the Bank Of Thailand will publish the details at the end of the month. Stay tuned.

Chart, export in may : per zones

Data for may have been published. Time to update our charts.

Source Bank Of Thailand (table EC_XT_002).

First, I remind you that exports crashed 26 ,6% in may, compared to may 2008… in USD. But, thanks to the magic of exchange rate, the fall is “only” -17 % in THB (-16 % in april).

Why I have 2 series ? Because the first amount published by the governemnt (around the 20th of each month) is in USD. And then, 10 days after, the Bank Of Thailand publishes all the datas.

Personally, I prefer to speak about exports in THB. Why ? Because this is actually the real money that goes into businesses pockets… It gives a better view of the situation on the ground.

Now the chart per country of destination (or zones).

And now the X chart, the % of change compared to “Peak Exports” (july 2008). It’s getting better, albeit Japan is still off by 30 % and Asean by 20%.

Abhisit starts to understand : thai exports are falling because…

Eureka !

Our dashing PM starts to understand. Light the candles !

The government will reassess the problems causing Thailand’s exports to decline sharply, Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva said on Saturday.

“I’ve already asked the Finance Ministry” to probe the trend, Mr. Abhisit said. “However, the major reason is that the purchasing power of (our) trading partners has fallen and (our government’s) measures are expected to produce (only) limited results.”

This is the reason why the government must focus on domestic investment to stimulate the economy, he said. (TNA)

After months of lies, of grotesque forecasts (the famous “targets”), of hysterical “Green Shoots” foolishness and tons of other non-sense talking, Abhisit starts to speak… truely.

–yes there is nothing Thailand can do about world demand

-the inane “stimulus”, “boost” and other “dildos plans” have zero effects on exports, none whatsoever

-no there aren’t any untapped exports markets, in other solar systems, that could save thai exporters (-26,6 % in may)

-yes if the negative trend continues, the damages will increase greatly (bankruptcies, defaults on loans, more unemployment etc.). Negative loop feedback. It’s probably unavoidable at that point.

-yes, like I repeat over and over on this blog since several months (read here and there), don’t expect any recovery of exports anytime soon. Peak Exports (july 2008) is behind us. And will stay behind us.

-last but not least : Thailand has (had) an export driven economy… So for that matter it’s easy to foresee difficult times ahead as far as GDP is concerned… if the negative trend on exports continues for long.

Private consumption is dead, investments too… and government is broke (read my GDP report)… So ?

How the thai GDP could grow ? With love and water ? Wishful thinking ? Abhisit’s smile ? How ?